Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Litany of Bush administration failings

Source: "Goodlings Amok: A Common Thread in Bush's Failings," by Ruth Marcus, The Washington Post, July 30, 2008.

Ruth Marcus, in her op-ed piece takes on the Bush administration. Some excerpts:
This administration will leave office having trashed the place.....

My favorite sentence in the Goodling report sums up the hiring practices in the department's supposedly nonpartisan career ranks: "Tell Brad he can hire one more good American."

This was the response by Goodling, who served as Justice's liaison with the White House, to a request from Bradley Schlozman, the interim U.S. attorney in Kansas City, Mo., to bring aboard a new prosecutor. "Good American" is Goodling's code for "Republican." ,,,,

Most administrations find ways to keep the Goodlings under control and the grown-ups in charge. The trouble with this one is that it is riddled with Goodlings Gone Wild, incapable of or unwilling to distinguish between the proper pursuit of political aims and the responsible administration of government.

To take one other recent example, the NASA inspector general found last month that press officers in the space agency "reduced, marginalized, or mischaracterized" studies of global warming, toning down politically unwelcome conclusions. A news conference on global warming was postponed, according to a senior scientist, because the "administration does not want any negative environmental news before the [2004] election."......

President Bush put adherence to Republican theology -- taxes must be cut -- over prudent governing.

In February 2001, when the new president presented his first budget to Congress, he described the fiscal situation this way: "We have increased our budget at a responsible 4 percent, we have funded our priorities, we have paid down all the available debt, we have prepared for contingencies and we still have money left over."

That happy situation, he said, justified -- no, necessitated-- a tax cut: "The growing surplus exists because taxes are too high and government is charging more than it needs. The people of America have been overcharged, and on their behalf, I am here asking for a refund."......

Delivering the bad deficit news, Jim Nussle, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, asserted that it was essential to keep the tax cuts in place to achieve balance. Huh? The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the total budgetary cost of the Bush tax cuts will be $245 billion next fiscal year -- half the hole the administration has helped dig.

More on the failure of the Doha Round

According to the Irish Times:
TALKS TO agree a global trade deal have collapsed, raising question marks over the future of the multilateral trading system established by the World Trade Organisation (WTO)

A bitter dispute between the US and India over safeguards to protect poor farmers in developing countries prompted the breakdown after nine gruelling days of negotiations......

Diplomats said the failure of negotiators to agree on the basis for a WTO deal in Geneva this week would result in at least a year's delay in the Doha round and could kill it off altogether. No further talks are expected before a US presidential election scheduled for November and analysts have warned that protectionism is taking root in many states.

Peter Sutherland, the Irish chairman of BP and a former director general of the GATT - the forerunner to the WTO - said the failure was bad for the global economy and held serious implications for the WTO institution and the whole concept of multilateralism.

"If states cannot even work together on something as obvious as world trade then how can we effectively address other issues that require a multilateral response such as climate change," said Mr Sutherland, who presided over the last global deal in 1994.

The breakdown in the talks came despite an earlier draft agreement between developed economies such as the EU and US and developing countries over the level of tariff and subsidy cuts in the agriculture and industrial sectors. But a dispute principally between the US and India - which also included Indonesia and China - over a safeguard mechanism to protect farmers in developing states from agricultural imports prompted the collapse.
Comment: The Irish, who should be pretty impatrial, seem to give half the blame to the United States, which I interpret to mean the Bush administration. My sympathy does go out to the poor farmers in India and China, who are often just surviving, and would have a tough time dealing with unrestricted competition in some cases. JAD

Mothballing the Doha Round: A Sad Day

After nine days of negotiations, some 30 or 35 nations have failed to reach an agreement on the Doha Round of trade talks. The talks which were started in 2001 have a very ambitious agenda of liberalization of trade regimes and reduction of trade barriers. The talks have ground to a halt on previous occasions and this session has been seen be some as the last, best chance. While some observers suggest that only a wide ranging agreement is likely to succeed providing the trade-offs that will satisfice all participants with an accord; others suggest that several small agreements may still be possible if the talks have finally failed for good.

According to Business Standard:
The failure by trade ministers from 30 countries to seal a deal on the world trade talks does not mean the end of the Doha Round of negotiations, which has been going on for more than seven years, World Trade Organisation director general Pascal Lamy said today.
According to the Washington Post:
High-level delegations from the United States and the European Union showed fresh willingness at the World Trade Organization talks to make concessions that would have gradually curbed the subsidies and tariffs they have long employed to protect First World farmers. But India and China dug in their heels, insisting on the right to keep protecting their farmers while accusing the United States and other rich countries of exaggerating the generosity of their concessions.
Comment: If a negotiation fails that might have benefited the whole world and helped reduce the hunger of billions, a hunger especially acute in the current crisis, then there must be blame enough for all involved. On the other hand, the negotiations have been entirely on the watch of the Bush administration which has been accused of intransigence, especially over the early years. As an American, I hold our government responsible, and I hope that the citizens of other countries similarly hold their leaders responsible. JAD

Changing Categories of People

I heard a historian yesterday say that the current concept of American "teen ager" came to exist in the 1930's and 40's. Prior to that time few young people went to high school, and people in their teens were generally just young workers. When the Depression made jobs scarce, kids stayed in school, and the trend continued. The law also kept teen agers out of military service. So there came to be a population of post adolescent kids who were not in the work force. Then along came the transistor radio, small and cheap enough to be under the control of the kids themselves, and there grew up a body of programming serving the teen agers, and I would add, a teen age market was created. Thus in a relatively short time Americans had come to conceive of a subpopulation of Americans called "teen agers". (Note that some religions still enroll people as members about the age of puberty.)

I understand that Western society earlier had created a new conceptual category of the "child", having earlier seen (and dressed) children as young adults.

If you think about it, the 18th century abolished the class of people categorized as "slaves". The word comes from "Slavs", derived from from the widespread enslavement of captured Slavs in the early Middle Ages. In Portugal, in the 15th century there were both African slaves and European slaves from Russia and the Baltic states. People in the United States apparently applied the concept only to those with African ancestors, and in the time of slavery there were elaborate categories developed to categorize people of partial African ancestry. After the Emancipation Proclamation there were no more slaves, and we have gradually developed a category of "blacks" as those people who self-define themselves in that way. (One of my "black" friends has an Irish grandfather and a German grandfather.)

The women's suffrage movement changed our mental category of "woman" to allow women not only to vote but to take on other civic responsibilities, as modern feminism has changed the attributes attached to "women" in the workplace.

My point is that such culturally defined categories, which are very important in determining the way we think and the inferences we draw, are quite malleable. Because we generally learn these categories unconsciously through "acculturation" we tend to take them as more substantial that they really are. A rose may be a rose may be a rose, but we have come to think of people as teenagers who we once (not so long ago) would have thought of as young adults.

The corollary is that we should not place too much faith in the inferences we draw about people from the artificial social categories in which we have pigeon-holed them.

We need bandwidth, ISP's prefer profits

Source: "Comcast Illegally Interfered With Web File-Sharing Traffic, FCC Says" by Cecilia Kang, The Washington Post, July 30, 2008.

Three of the five FCC Commissioners have agreed Comcast illegally interfered with customer Internet traffic, a fourth was undecided at the time the article went to bed, and only one (a Republican) had refused to condemn the company. The Comcast case is a bellweather, and other ISP's are likely to meter Internet traffic or worst if they think they can get away with it.

Lots of other countries give consumers more bandwidth than we do in the United States, so it is not unrealistic to think we can and should have enough bandwidth that metering would be silly (rather than dangerous). Good on the FCC Commissioners who are doing their job on this one!

"Web curbs for Olympic journalists"

Image source: Intomobile
According to BBC News:
"Journalists covering the Beijing Olympic Games will not have completely uncensored access to the internet, Chinese and Olympic officials say. Sites related to spiritual group Falun Gong would be blocked, officials said. Journalists also found they could not see some news or human rights websites. China enforces tough internet controls, but said when it bid for the Games that journalists would be free to report."
Comment: The Olympics are hugely commercial for the media, the advertizers, and the host country and city. For the Chinese Government they seem to be a political event. It has become clear that some countries, some trainers and some others have driven young people to harm themselves in pursuit of an Olympic birth or medal. Too many athletes have used drugs to enhance their chances of success. The pollution in Beijing threatens to cause physical damage. And now we read that the Chinese Government has not honored its pledge to free reporters from censorship. I am not going to watch. JAD

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

A couple of interesting blogs

This blog reports new ideas and work on mind, brain, and behavior - as well as random curious stuff
An attempt to share contemporary research findings, insights, musings, and discussions regarding theories and applied measures of human intelligence. In other words, a quantoid linear mind trying to make sense of the nonlinear world of human cognitive abilities.

Judging the success of a technological innovation

The standard cost-effectiveness, cost-efficiency, engineering economics approach to evaluating the success or failure of a project are well known, and this is not the place to review those methods.

I want rather to make some different points to show why so much of the literature is wrong. Thus in spite of the fact that information and communications technology have swept the world at an unprecedented rate, and that few Americans or American businesses would consider a future without their installed technology, there is a wide spread belief that most ICT projects fail.

Most of the literature seems to consider "stand alone" projects that have specific objectives, specific budgets and a schedule. Thus projects are judged to have failed if the specified objectives are not met within the specified budget and schedule. A more reasonable criterion would be whether the project achieved enough to justify the effort involved and the resources it used.

There is an alternative literature that considers the process by which technological improvement takes place. In that literature, the process can be considered a success even if some of the specific innovation projects along the way don't meet their nominal objectives. Indeed, that literature suggests that projects be sequenced in such a way as to best influence the hearts and minds of the people in the organization in question. The first projects in such a process might be chosen for their simplicity, visibility and probable positive impact on people's attitudes. Indeed, I suggest that the best strategy for the improvement of technology in an organization might in some cases involve the deliberate programming of sub-projects with unrealistic objectives, budgets and calendars.

One of the problems with the project by project evaluations of an innovation process is that early projects often have externalities that affect the overall process, but are difficult to measure. Thus, an early project while not meeting its explicit objectives might well leave a residue of skills in organizational personnel, of physical infrastructure that will have unplanned uses in the future, and of improved understanding of the organization and its processes in the change agent team. None of these would be likely to be measured in evaluating the project per se.

The rapid dissemination of ICT technology in the United States has been described as a viral rather than a planned process. Huge numbers of individuals and individual firms made decisions apparently independently to install technology and learn to use it. There was no centrally planned process that lead to the rapid dissemination of the technology nor to its eventual improvement of economic efficiency of the country. Yet many donor agencies now focus on scale up of pilot projects as the means of enhancing dissemination rather than creating conditions propitious to individual initiative. The question that should be asked of such efforts is whether they were more or less effective in promoting the dissemination of the technology and its effective use than other available approaches, not whether they achieved their stated objectives under budget and in time.

It has been recognized that the economics of network technologies are unusual. The benefits tend to accrue according to the number of participants in the network squared while the costs increase according to the number of participants alone. Since networks start small and grow, the benefit to cost ratio early in network development tends to be much lower than the ratio when the network reaches maturity. Unfortunately, many project evaluations are done over relatively short times, early in the development of the networks.

As we look at the development of personal computers and the Internet, we recognize that killer application succeeded killer application, and that today's value of the information infrastructure could not have been predicted, because no one had the foresight needed to predict those killer apps nor their importance and value. So too, as an organization begins the process of technological innovation it is unlikely to predict where it will lead nor the benefits it will yield. If the early projects are steps toward that uncertain future, how then can they be evaluated?

Republicans Make Inaction a Virtue


The New York Times yesterday published an article about the Tomnibus, a $10 billion collection of 35 Coburn-blocked measures put together by Harry Reed. All the measures had broad support in the Senate, and all had been blocked by Dr. No, Tom Coburn. The Tomnibus included the Mothers Act and the Protect Our Children Act. There are items to commemorate “The Star-Spangled Banner” and to try to curb pornography, cut drug use and help victims of Lou Gehrig’s disease. Coburn is a Republican Senator from Oklahoma.
Mr. Coburn, a 60-year-old family practitioner, blazed a career as a thorn in the side of both parties after arriving in the House as part of the Republican revolutionary class of 1994. He was a top anti-abortion crusader who conducted regular workshops for young staff members on sexually transmitted diseases, complete with graphic slideshows. He continued to deliver babies while he was in the House, but after moving to the Senate in 2004, he found himself in a long-running battle with ethics officials over whether he could moonlight.

In the Senate, Mr. Coburn has continued down his singular path, driving Democrats and some Republicans to distraction with his prolific use of the “hold” — the ability of a single senator to object to moving ahead on a measure without a debate. He currently has holds on nearly 80 bills, the most of any senator.
CBS News reports more recently:
Coburn (R-Okla.) prevailed in blocking a massive package of generally non-controversial bills that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid brought to the floor, angering Democrats and some Republicans while raising Coburn's status as a cult hero to fiscal conservatives. The vote was 52-40 on a procedural motion that required 60 votes......

Republicans stuck together in blocking this bill not because they oppose all of the programs, but because they have decided to block everything small and large this week until they get votes on stalled energy legislation.
Comment: Too bad they didn't block the bills giving the Bush administration the green light to go to war in Iraq, or to bug Americans without warrants, or to deregulate the financial industries that got us into the credit crisis we now suffer. Too bad they didn't block the confirmation of "Brownie" before he got the job he screwed up so badly in Hurricane Kartina, or the confirmation of other Bush administration hacks too numerous to name. But now they block legislation in favor of motherhood and against pornography! JAD

Monday, July 28, 2008

Public Health Problems in Waiting

I just posted on the emerging problem of antibiotic resistant bacteria. There are other major health problems before us.

The situation in non-infectious disease is obviously worrisome due to the aging population, the problems of life style in an increasingly affluent global population, and the problems of pollution, not to mention the cost of the increasingly complex and comprehensive medical toolkit for dealing with these diseases. But let me focus on communicable diseases.

In addition to the problem of disease agents evolving increasing resistance to antibiotics, there is the problem of vectors of vector borne diseases evolving resistance to their control measures. There are emerging diseases, often resulting from the crossover from another species into humans. The AIDS epidemic illustrates the threat. As more people are in touch with more livestock, as livestock densities increase, and as people come into contact with new species through people or wild animals moving into new areas, there are more such opportunities for such crossovers. In failed states public health programs fail, infectious disease go unchecked, and their resulting epidemics create potential points of contagion for the rest of the world. Flu illustrates still another problem; the disease is endemic, but every few years there is a change in the virus and the resulting epidemic or pandemic is more contagious, more virulent or both. And of course, the failure of so many societies to be able to afford decent hygiene results in lots of spread of water borne, water washed, and other infectious diseases.

We think of infectious disease as being controlled, but there are an estimated 17 million deaths per year from them, second only to cardiovascular diseases. With globalization and the increase of international and intercontinental travel, a communicable disease can spread more rapidly and over greater distances than in the past. With rapid urbanization and the growth of megacities, there are huge human populations in close contact to enable epidemics to strike hard. In the developing world, these cities have extremely dense populations, increasing contact rates.

Add to all that the threat of bioterrorism, with disease agents engineered to be especially communicable, virulent or lethal, and the possibility of them being spread on purpose.

We should surely be focusing our attention on means to control and prevent infectious diseases for mankind's future safety.

Check out:

Sunday, July 27, 2008

A war on bacterial disease?

Source: "The Bacteria Fight Back," by Gary Taubes
Science 18 July 2008: Vol. 321. no. 5887, pp. 356 - 361

The last decade has seen the inexorable proliferation of a host of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, or bad bugs, not just (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) MRSA but other insidious players as well, including Acinetobacter baumannii, Enterococcus faecium, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter species. The problem was predictable--"resistance happens," as Karen Bush, an anti-infectives researcher at Johnson and Johnson (J&J) in Raritan, New Jersey, puts it--but that doesn't make it any easier to deal with. In 2002, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that at least 90,000 deaths a year in the United States could be attributed to bacterial infections, more than half caused by bugs resistant to at least one commonly used antibiotic. Last October, CDC reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association that the number of serious infections caused by MRSA alone was close to 100,000 a year, with almost 19,000 related fatalities--a number, an accompanying editorial observed, that is larger than the U.S. death toll attributed to HIV/AIDS in the same year.
Comment: Too bad the Bush administration did not declare a war on bacteria instead of a war on terror. It might have saved a lot more lives had it done so.

My point is that it is important to know the numbers in order to judge which risks are more important. Together with an understanding of the potential for risk reduction, that way can lead to better policies, or at least policies that more fully accomplish stated purposes such as preventing deaths.
JAD

"DEFENSE RESEARCH: New Policy Tries to Ease Security Restrictions"

According to Science (18 July 2008), a new policy directive from the Department of Defense (DOD) has been promulgated that's meant to resolve a 7-year dispute between the Pentagon and academic institutions over the rules governing unclassified research.
Since the terrorist strikes of 11 September 2001, (federal) research agencies have tried to prevent sensitive technical information from falling into enemy hands by creating a category known as "sensitive but unclassified" research. Academic officials have fought back, pointing to a 1985 directive from the Reagan Administration that exempts fundamental research on university campuses from such restrictions. Last month, the universities won a major victory when DOD Under Secretary John Young instructed agency officials that "classification is the only appropriate mechanism" for restricting publications or participation of foreign nationals in unclassified research projects. "The performance of fundamental research, with rare exceptions, should not be managed in a way that it becomes subject to restrictions on the involvement of foreign researchers or, publication restrictions," the memo says, citing National Security Defense Directive 189, which President Ronald Reagan issued.
The policies of the past seven years appear to have been disruptive.
A survey of more than 20 universities by the Association of American Universities (AAU) and the Council on Government Relations documents 180 instances of troublesome clauses in research contracts from federal agencies, a majority from DOD and the Department of Homeland Security (see graphic). So the new policy is a welcome change, says Jacques Gansler, a former Pentagon administrator who co-chaired the academies' report.
One effect of the old policy has been to make it harder to give research assistantships to foreign graduate students. JAD

The U.S. Should Increase Cooperation with Russian Science

Glenn Schweitzer, who has led the National Academy's program of U.S.-Russian scientific cooperation for decades, has an editorial in the July 18, 2008 issue of Science magazine. He writes:
Russia no longer needs assistance from the west to shore up its science and technology (S&T) base. Its gross domestic product is $1.4 trillion and increasing at an annual rate of almost 9%. Investment in nanotechnology is on track to reach $6 billion during the next several years. The research budget of the Russian Academy of Sciences is six times larger than in 2001, and research funds are on the rise throughout the ministries.
He suggests that the decrease in U.S. funding is starving the collaborative scientific linkages that have been created over past decades. He also notes, correctly I am sure, that there are a number of global systems problems of great importance to the United States that would be better understood more rapidly through strong U.S.-Russian scientific collaboration, and thus ameliorated sooner and more effecively.

People are alike but culture matters

There is a story, perhaps apocryphal, concerning the differences in audience participation in the television programs in the format of "So you want to be a millionaire". The program allows contestants, who are competing for very large prizes, to poll the audience for the answer of one question during the quiz. According to the story:
  • In the United States, audiences try to help with each member giving his/her best guess as to the correct answer;
  • In France the audience would try to help with a hard question, but if they felt the question was so easy that the contestant should know the answer without help they would deem him/her to be a blockhead not worthy of help and give the wrong answer;
  • In Russia the audience would generally give the wrong answer because Russians generally feel that it is unfair for someone to get rich simply because he/she is lucky enough to be selected as a contestant for a quiz show.
The point is that people in the three countries are all seen to be acting reasonably given their underlying attitudes toward quiz shows. However, they act very differently because those underlying positions are fundamentally different.

This seems to beautifully illustrate a point. A person's culture includes a cluster of underlying attitudes which are acculturated often tacitly by contact with others in the culture. People everywhere act in fairly predictable ways if you know the ideas and attitudes on which they base their actions; in this way, people are pretty much alike in all cultures. On the other hand, since the underlying attitudes differ so much from one culture to another, contingent on the historical development of that culture, people from different cultures can respond very differently to very comparable situations.

http://anshumanharsh.wordpress.com/2008/07/23/six-sigma-certified-dabbawallas-of-mumbai/

The silver bicycles of the dabbawallas

This is a truly wonderful posting from Anshuman Harshwardhan's blog.

4,000 to 5,000 dabbawalas, wearing white caps and riding silver bicycles, deliver 150,000 to 200,000 lunches on time from peoples homes to their offices every day with 99.99 percent accuracy (with a Six Sigma quality certification from the International Quality Federation). The tiffin boxes are returned to the homes via a reverse logistics system in the afternoon. People in Mumbai can sign up for the service via the mydabbawalla.com website. The system involves transportation of the boxes via the Mumbai railroad system, with sorting centers at each station to send the tiffin boxes on the right routes!

According to The Economist:
AS THE warrior king who defeated the Mughals and founded the Maratha empire of Western India in the 17th century, Shivaji Bhosle is remembered as a tactical genius as well as a benevolent ruler. The direct descendants of his Malva-caste soldiers are also developing a reputation for organisational excellence. Using an elaborate system of colour-coded boxes to convey over 170,000 meals to their destinations each day, the 5,000-strong dabbawala collective has built up an extraordinary reputation for the speed and accuracy of its deliveries. Word of their legendary efficiency and almost flawless logistics is now spreading through the rarefied world of management consulting.
Comment: What a great example of a knowledge system of exquisite accuracy developed by in an unexpected quarter with the simplest technology. JAD

Generics are coming!

Source: "Pharmaceuticals: All together now," The Economist, July 24th 2008.

There have been a number of recent mergers, resulting in a consolidation of the industry producing generic pharmaceuticals. The mergers have veen international, affecting firms headquartered in Israel and India as well as in Europe and the United States. The generic drug market "enjoyed $72 billion in sales last year, and is growing faster than the conventional drugs business (see chart). IMS Health, an industry research firm, reckons that $130 billion of prescription pills will go off patent by 2012, creating a huge opening for generics. But that good news is tempered by two big trends: liberalisation and commoditisation."
There have long been two very different kinds of generics markets: genuinely competitive ones, like those found in America, Britain, the Netherlands and Scandinavia, and coddled ones, like those of Japan, the rest of continental Europe and much of the developing world. The competitive markets are now becoming “hyper-competitive”, in the words of Mylan’s Mr Coury. Generics make up nearly two-thirds of the American drugs market by volume, but only 13% by value. Customers, ranging from pharmacy chains to middlemen known as “pharmacy benefits managers”, are rapidly consolidating and so gaining greater power over prices.
Comment: It seems likely that these trends will make pharmaceuticals more affordable for the poor and for poor nations. That would be very good! JAD

Neuro-economics adding to behavioral economics

Source: "Neuroeconomics: Do economists need brains?" The Economist, July 24th 2008.

Subtitled "A new school of economists is controversially turning to neuroscience to improve the dismal science," this article states:
In the late 1990s a generation of academic economists had their eyes opened by Mr LeDoux’s and other accounts of how studies of the brain using recently developed techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed that different bits of the old grey matter are associated with different sorts of emotional and decision-making activity......

These new neuroeconomists saw that it might be possible to move economics away from its simplified model of rational, self-interested, utility-maximising decision-making. Instead of hypothesising about Homo economicus, they could base their research on what actually goes on inside the head of Homo sapiens.

The dismal science had already been edging in that direction thanks to behavioural economics. Since the 1980s researchers in this branch of the discipline had used insights from psychology to develop more “realistic” models of individual decision-making, in which people often did things that were not in their best interests. But neuroeconomics had the potential, some believed, to go further and to embed economics in the chemical processes taking place in the brain.
Comments: It has long seemed to me that economics should use better models of human decision making. For example, I have long wanted to see a model of race track gambling, using complexity theory, which recognized that the gamblers at the track come from a population with differing levels of information on the abilities of horses and jockeys and of the track conditions that influence race outcomes, and have differing opinions of the probabilities of race outcomes. Would it not be interesting to see whether models could predict pari mutuel betting outcomes of ensembles of betters?

I also welcome an increased understanding of the way the brain thinks and thus of the real way in which people choose courses of action. It would be great if the convergence of research from various fields would lead us to approaches which would enable more rational policy making.
JAD

Is economic inequality increasing?

Source: The Economist

Citing a study by Christian Broda and John Romalis, the Economist notes that the affluent have buy a different market basket of goods and services than do the poor, and the inflation of that purchased by the affluent has been greater than that of the goods and services purchased by the poor. This is a result of the fact that the poor buy more of the cheap consumer products, especially those flooding in from China, while the rich buy more expensive services such as medical care and education.

Thus while the dollar income distribution has gotten more uneven in the past decade, the Economist suggests that the poor have seen similar improvements in their ability to make purchases to those of the affluent. I would interpret this in a different way, inferring that the poor may find medical care and higher education still more difficult to afford than in the past.

The current inflation of fuel and food prices, and the long term devaluation of the dollar (see previous posting) suggest that the poor are not going to enjoy the increased buying power much longer if it has not already departed.

NASA

The Economist this week has an article on NASA, currently celebrating its 50th year of operation. NASA's program of unmanned scientific space probes have, literally, "pushed back the frontiers of human understanding."
At the moment, about a third of the agency’s $17 billion budget is spent on unmanned science. There are the missions to Mars and other planets. There are the less spectacular but more vital observations of the Earth from orbit in search of answers to questions about climate, weather and geology. There is the examination of the sun. And there is the scanning of the universe with orbiting telescopes that range across the spectrum and can see almost as far back as the Big Bang itself. If you believe that pure science is a public good that deserves to be paid for out of taxes, most of this is money well spent.

The remaining two-thirds of the budget, however, is consumed by manned space flight—in other words, the shuttle and the space station. The agency often refers to this as “space exploration” but in truth both shuttles and the space station are barely out of the atmosphere. The real exploration of space is being done by the unmanned missions.

The result is a tension between the “manned” and “unmanned” sides of the organisation. There are those in each camp who see little value in the work of the other. In particular, many of the scientists reckon that a lot more useful stuff could be done in space if the manned budget were spent on robot probes. Dr Griffin, however, believes this is naive. He says that without the human-exploration side, the science side would be “a mere shadow of itself today”.
Comment: Count me among those who would see more money spent on science and less on manned space flight. JAD

Thinking back on Orange County Republicans

I once lived in Orange County, California - a bastion of conservatism.

James Boyd Utt was my Congressman at the time. He served in Congress from 1953-1970. Wikipedia reminds me:

Utt was an outspoken conservative; one of his unachieved goals was to remove the United States from the United Nations.

He voted against the Civil Rights Acts of 1960, 1964, and 1968, and against the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

In 1963, he claimed that "a large contingent of barefooted Africans" might be training in Georgia as part of a United Nations military exercise to take over the United States.

In 1963, he also claimed that black Africans may be training in Cuba to invade the United States.
As I recall, he also regularly introduced legislation in the Congress to repeal the income tax.

Utt was succeeded in the 35th Congressional District by fellow conservative Republican John G. Schmitz, a prominent member of the John Birch Society. Schmitz served in the House of Representatives from 1970 to 1973. Again, Wikipedia informs us:
Early in 1982, John George Stuckle, an infant born on June 10, 1981, was treated at an Orange County hospital for an injured penis. A piece of hair was wrapped so tightly around the organ "in a square knot," according to one doctor--that it was almost severed. The surgery went well, and the baby suffered no permanent injury. However, the baby's mother, Carla, a 43-year-old Swedish-born immigrant and longtime Republican volunteer, wasn't allowed to take John George home, since some of the attending doctors were convinced the hair had been deliberately tied around his penis.[3]

Detectives threatened to arrest Carla and take John George away permanently unless she identified the father. In a shocking development, Carla said that Schmitz was John George's father.[4]

During a custody hearing, Schmitz acknowledged fathering John George out of wedlock. He'd also fathered Carla's daughter, Eugenie.
Moreover
In 1997, Schmitz's daughter, Mary Kay Letourneau, was arrested for the statutory rape of a teenaged boy with whom she had an affair and a child. Newspapers reported that Letourneau's father had attempted to find a loophole in United States treaties with Samoa in order to find out if his daughter could be excused from trial (the boy victim in the case was of Samoan extraction).
The Letourneau case was the subject of endless media coverage for a decade.

Was Obama Sandbagged?

The Bush administration's Department of Defense tells Obama not to visit wounded soldiers in Germany as the visit might be misconstrued as political. Then, when Obama cancels the visit in order to avoid any chance of embarrassing the soldiers or making political use of their sacrifice, McCain charges Obama does not care enough about our injured soldiers. Was Obama set up? Once the government asked him not to visit the soldiers there was no way he could avoid criticism.

Too bad he didn't make the visit. Many of those soldiers would probably have remembered and valued a visit from Obama for the rest of their lives. Still I am glad he did not go against the advice of the Department of Defense in this situation. A candidate should respect the Department's judgment about the welfare of its soldiers. Lets hope that was in fact the highest priority of the Bush administration in this case.

The Legacy of the Bush Administration!

Source: The Washington Post, July 28, 2008

The dollar has fallen by 39 percent since its high in 2001. This is a result of the Bush administration economic policies, especially its unwillingness to pay any part of the costs of the wars it has started as we fight them.

Formal thinking about science and technology

There are a lot of formal approaches that can be used to make better decisions on science and technology. These include;

Technology Systems Analysis: Obviously one does not introduce 220 volt apparatus into a 110 volt system, but the approach can go much further. Don't introduce a brand if it can not be supported by maintenance and replacement parts, Don't introduce a communications medium unless content is going to be available. Realize that network economies depend on sequential introduction of added killer apps.; thus think about sources for added software as one introduces telecenters.

Financial analysis: One would assume that those investing in a technology would generally assure that it was profitable to do so, using standard financial analysis techniques, but that is both hard to do well with a technological innovation and perhaps frequently omitted in developing nations. Financial sustainability analysis is an important aspect.

Environmental impact assessment: My experience with aid projects was that people would justify a project as completely transforming agricultural technology in a country, and then state that there would be no environmental consequence. Technological change can indeed be disruptive.

Economic analysis: Clearly there is a need for economic analysis that goes beyond financial analysis, for example to include the economic externalities of introduction of a technology. There may also be a need for analysis of economic institutions, such as the ability of the local market to sustain the maintenance services needed for a new technology. It may also be very important to see who benefits and who suffers economically from a technological change.

Political analysis: Is a proposed technological change politically feasible or not? What are the interests of the key stakeholders. Can one build a coalition of the willing to provide the political cover an innovation requires?

Social soundness analysis: Is a proposed technological innovation culturally appropriate? What social systems is it likely to disrupt? Which will it reinforce? Are there means of ameliorating the social consequences? Technological innovations that are intended to diffuse via informal social networks should be viewed through the lens of sociological and anthropological analytic techniques.

Organizational analysis: Since often technological innovations take place within formal organizations, the analytic toolbox of from schools of business and/or public administration can be applied -- organizational science.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

"The feeling of certainty"

My friend Julianne also recommended On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not by Robert Burton, which I have not yet read. It is one of an increasing number of books dealing with the interrelation of mind and brain.

I was taken by the idea of the "feeling of certainty" which is apparently addressed in the book and is addressed in its reviews. As I understand it, the phrase suggests that while "certainty" is a concept applied to factual knowledge, "feeling" is rather applied to emotion. People do get emotional when what they believe to be their knowledge is challenged. Indeed, I think we introspectively understand how we "feel" we know things, even when reflection indicates that that knowledge is of a very tentative kind.

I would be interested if others have experienced the intuition that something can be known that is not now known, if only one worked hard enough to discover that knowledge, with an intuition of the path to the knowledge.

"Reason special: Reason eats itself"

My friend Julianne recommended this introduction to a special edition of New Scientist.

Note that the article has linkages to good websites on David Hume and Rene Descarte.

We need a foreign campaign finance law

Source: "Israeli Leaders Find Generous Donors in U.S.: Americans Give Most To the Political Right," by Griff Witte, The Washington Post, July 26, 2008.

The article states that Americans, acting as individuals, provide a large and influential portion of the financing for politicians and political parties in Israel.

Comment: We don't like the idea of foreigners intervening in American politics, and we have campaign financing laws to limit the negative impact of big money buying our own elections. We also have sad experience of the unexpected adverse consequences when U.S. spys, who are after all professionals implementing defined foreign policy, tried to buy elections in foreign countries. So, if we seek to promote the spread of democracy, lets have a federal law limiting the donations of American firms, individuals or political action committees to foreign politicians or political parties. JAD

A Thought About Robots and the Future of Mankind

The U.S. military now has unmanned aerial vehicles and robots used to disarm explosives deployed in war zones. It has ambitious plans to develop more capable and more autonomous robotic vehicles in the next decade or two. We now have programmed vehicles patrolling the perimeters of some strategic facilities, armed with remotely operated weapons. I have heard people question the safety of the deployment of such machines.

The U.S. military and the U.S. space program have been world leaders in the development of such autonomous vehicles and the associated computerized systems for their control. If we consider how great the progress has been in this field in the last half century, one can only wonder what will be accomplished in the next 50 or 100 centuries.

Which makes me think about a good topic for a science fiction story. At some point in the future it seems likely that mankind will come up against a situation that makes the survival of the species extemely unlikely. So would our species seek to develop a robotic technology system that could survive the crisis and continue developing and seeking to disseminate knowledge in the universe? An interesting idea to explore in fiction?

Foreign Policy Mine Field

Source: "AIDS Funding Binds Longevity of Millions to U.S.: Open-Ended Commitment of Money Is Implied," by David Brown, The Washington Post, July 26, 2008.

The Congress has passed and the President is about to sign an autorization bill authorizing up to $40 billion for AIDS treatment and other health assistance for developing nations. The bill was apparently cut down in the reconciliation conference from that described in the press a few days ago. Of course the actual funding will depend on the amounts the new Congresses and the new administration actually appropriate to the programs over the next few years.

Some years ago I got involved in a USAID program that funded the anti-malarial campaign in Haiti. The U.S. funding, were it to be discontinued, would almost certainly have been beyond the capacity of the Haitian government to continue from its own resources. The preventive services were critical to maintaining a reasonably low level of the disease in the country, and were it to have been terminated the result would certainly have been a public health disaster. There was an "ethical mortgage" to continue the funding for a program which the United States had created and which was doing real good.

In the case of the AIDS program, the a significant portion of the funding will go to the purchase of drugs to treat AIDS patients. We now know that that treatment can prolong life for several decades. Thus the newly expanded U.S. foreign assistance initiative will create a population of millions of people who owe their lives to the U.S. funding, since they would otherwise not be able to afford the required drugs. If the government should decide in the future to eliminate funding for the program then the expected immediate impact would be the deaths of the people dependent on the U.S.-supplied drugs. I leave the indirect impact to your imagination. There is an "ethical unexamined foreign policy explosive" created in each country receiving that assistance for AIDS drugs that it can not afford itself.

I can imagine that thoughtful officials of the aid agencies will seek to establish rules for the programs that substitute home-country funding for U.S. funding over the program life. My experience is that such well intentioned terms in agreements with poor and poorly governed countries often fail. Moreover, the U.S. government finds it necessary from time to time to terminate assistance to countries when those countries have changes in administration or when the administrations become or are proven to be corrupt or incompetent.

Indeed, our own government likes to change its development assistance priorities, and is going to be facing severe economic problems in future years.

So the new initiative, which is clearly a well intentioned response to a huge public health need, will create a significant mortgage on future aid funds. We are now experiencing the pain of a system which accepted mortgages beyond the borrowers long term ability to pay.

In the past

Knowledge and Technology Systems

Have you ever thought of the confluence of knowledge and technology that are needed to actually be useful? The electric light bulb was an impressive invention, but without generators, motors to power the generators, distribution lines, and all the related controls, insulators, etc. the light bulb itself would not be much use. Moreover, electrical systems became more and more valuable with the addition of added electrical technologies.

Think about surgery. In the early days, people often died of infection acquired during surgery or the pain and shock that accompanied surgery. The inventions of sterile techniques and anesthesia were required to make surgery a viable option. Then of course, one had to understand enough about diseases to know what kind of surgical intervention would be required, involving knowledge of pathology and anatomy. One had to then invent all the instruments for conducting surgery, and things like sterilizers, lighting, monitors, etc. Think how important medical imaging is in diagnosing problems to be addressed via surgery, and how much progress has been made in medical imaging since the discovery of x-rays. No wonder it took so long to reach modern surgery and no wonder the development of surgical techniques continues.

How well does AIDS treatment work?

Source: "HIV drugs 'add 13 years of life'"
BBC News, 24 July 2008

"Life expectancy for people with HIV has increased by an average of 13 years since the late 1990s thanks to better HIV treatment, a study says." The article states that "a person now diagnosed at 20 years old could expect to live for another 49 years. But the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, which includes scientists from across Europe and Northern America, warned this was still short of the life expectancy for the wider population which stands at about 80." The study, conducted by a team from Bristol University, reviewed the experience of more than 43,000 HIV infected patients.

Comment: Maybe because I am old, it seems to me that the loss of eleven years of life expectancy is a very serious health risk. And of course, 49 years of treatment with anti-retrovirals is expensive and unpleasant. Moreover, we don't have a cohort of people who have been on these drugs for four decades so we don't really know what the side effects might be. Moreover, the death resulting from the final failure of the treatment may be worse that the alternative to be expected by a non-HIV infected person.

The anti-retroviral treatments are a spectacular scientific triumph which came faster than I would have expected. But that triumph should not be misunderstood. HIV infection is still a very unfortunate occurrence to be avoided if at all possible.
JAD

Some general concepts as they play out in technology and development

It occurs to me to post on some of the concepts that have been around for a while, and how they play out thinking about technology and development.

The Technology Gap

Think about marginal propensities to consume. Compare the consumption patterns of someone with an income of $1000 per year versus someone with $32,000 per year. The more affluent does not eat 32 times as many calories or 32 times as much protein as the less affluent. To some degree the more affluent will spend more to eat more desired foods, but after having fulfilled food needs people will allocate added income to fill other needs or desires.

So too, countries will marginal propensities to allocate added wealth and income to different technologies. In the area of information and communications technology, for example, countries will seek a level of telephone access as a fairly high priority. There is a limit, however, to how many telephones are needed, and eventually added resources will be allocated to other ICT needs and demands. Thus one finds that rich nations can afford and will invest in supercomputer networks and other capital intensive ICT infrastructure, and will therefore create comparative advantages in some areas that benefit from high power computing.

Failure to understand this phenomenon seems to have resulted in misunderstanding of the so called Digital Divide. There are differences in penetration of telephones, personal computers and the Internet between rich and poor nations, and those differences are coming down. However, not only do you have a 32 to 1 difference in GDP between some rich countries and some poor countries, there is a tendency for richer countries to allocate more of their GDP to ICT investments. The overall gap in ICT capacity will not be eliminated simply by diffusion of low cost, personal ICT technology in poor nations.

Leapfrogging

Developed countries have existing plants as a result of past investments with their embodied technologies. With the development of new, disruptive technologies, it is sometimes possible for poor countries to obtain a comparable or even superior technological capability without treading the paths already taken by richer countries, and to do so without so large a capital investment.

Thus with the development of mobile phones developing nations have been able to rapidly create very broad telephone connectivity without the expensive investments in land lines that were made in the past in developed nations. Indeed, they seem to be utilizing the cell phone technology to enable phome mediated financial services that are not available in developed nations.

Convergence/Divergence

The question as to whether the income gaps are increasing or decreasing among nations has been of considerable interest to economists. From my amateur perspective it seems that some countries are successfully closing the income gap and converging on the rich while others are failing to do so, and in fact are seeing their per capita GDP further diverge from that of the wealthiest nations.

I would suggest that exactly the same pattern of some convergence and some divergence is happening in technological capacity, and indeed there are probably circular chains of causality. That is, some countries which are successfully developing economically are also successful in technological innovation and diffusion, utilizing their increasing income and wealth to invest in technology; at the same time, those developing nations successfully acquiring, inventing and disseminating technology are often successful in utilizing that technology for economic development. On the other hand, the factors (political instability, corruption, repeated disasters, financial instability) often inhibit both economic and technological progress.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Better Ways of Doing Things: Organization versus Technology

Arguments about the importance of technological change in economic growth focus on the increase in total factor productivity. They often attribute the improvement of total factor productivity to technological change. This tends to make me think of the productivity increases in terms of technological innovation and diffusion. However, there is another important aspect of the increase in total factor productivity -- the improvement in organization.

We see important investments in reengineering organizations, building market institutions, and restructuring economic sectors. All of these are investments designed to improve productivity by improving the organization of productive activities.

We could of course see these processes as social innovations and their diffusion, but we seldom do.

Still, I hope that nothing that I have posted would lead the reader to think I don't value social innovation as a tool for economic (and social) development.

Think about telecenters, microfinance and venture capital firms as examples of relatively recent social innovations or of philanthropic foundations, industrial research laboratories and research intensive universities as earlier social innovations. All have been important contributions to modern economies.

How the Economic World is Changing

I heard Mohamed El-Erian interviewed on the Charley Rose show. I want to post on three things he said:
  • The motors of international economic development are changing,
  • The international pattern of savings is changing and thus so too is the international flow of investment.
  • Our indicators created for the earlier economic patterns failed to warn us of the nature of the current economic problems and we need new indicators more attuned to the current reality.
Growth in the world's economy is the aggregate of growth in national economies, weighted by the relative magnitudes of the nations' GDPs. In the decade after World War II the economy of the United States was so great a portion of the economy of the free world that its growth rate also dominated world growth. It is generally believed that developed nations have lower growth rates than the most successful developing nations because it is harder to grow at the economic frontier than to play catch up. What ever the reason, economically successful developing countries such as China and India have economic growth rates much higher than that of the United States, Europe and Japan. As their GDP's grow to more nearly approximate those of Europe and the United States in size, their growth will represent an even larger portion of global economic growth. In this sense the United States is being replaced as the global motor for development by a multi-engine system with big motors in Asia being added to the big motors of North America and Europe.

It seems likely to me that the faster the increase in GDP, the more rapid the technological innovation. So it seems likely that China and India, as well as Russia, Brazil and other rapidly growing nations are also motors of global technological innovation.

The invention of new technologies is perhaps a more important motor for long term economic growth, and this is perhaps less directly correlated with the rate of GDP growth, and more related with a combination of variables including the size of the economy, its rate of increase of GDP, its gross expenditure on research and development, and the "distance" between its current technology and the global technological frontier.

Savings

El-Erian points out that the United States has a very low saving rate, and indeed has been borrowing against the appreciation of its real estate to finance high levels of consumption while many the Asian economies are sustaining very high rates of saving. In the distant past rich countries were using their wealth to invest in poor nations; now there is an important flow of savings from Asian nations to the United States.

Indicators

I can't really comment on why our leading investment advisors missed the current crisis for so long as it developed.

It does seem to me that another change as the United States is making the transformation from an industrial society to a knowledge based society is that we are investing more in human resources, knowledge creation and knowledge management systems. It also seems to me that our current indicators of savings and investment don't do very well with the new forms of savings and investment. Someone who withdraws from their job for a while to learn and master a new skill is counted currently as a reduction of GDP rather than as a savings and investment in knowledge and human resources.

Household Technology

Over the past week I have been posting on technology and development, but have not mentioned household technology. The work people do at home is real work. In the developed world the dissemination of labor saving household technology has freed huge numbers of people to enter the formal labor force, and they in turn have contributed disproportionately to the growth of GDP (since their paid employment counts, while their unpaid household work does not count in GDP calculation.

Drawers of water and gatherers of wood still constitute a significant working population in the poorest nations. Piped water, especially to the household makes a big economic impact whenever it is provided, although it has been common in developed nations so long that we tend to forget that fact. Still, there are whole continents which lack piped water to substantial portions of their households.

Improved stove technology arrived in the developed world a couple of centuries ago, but wood and coal burning stoves have been largely replaced in our world. In some parts of the world cooking and heating are still accomplished using ancient rather than modern technology. Inefficient open cooking fires result in a big workload for the gatherers of wood and those doing the cooking, not to mention lots of indoor air pollution and externalities of deforestation and environmental degradation.

When we think of construction technology, I at least tend to think of the modern sector in which there is a large scale technology transfer from developed to developing nations, as well as considerable adaptation of building technologies to local resources and their differing costs. There is a huge area of traditional building technology, ranging from houses in rural areas and urban slums to community facilites, which are built (often by unskilled workers) using traditional or artesanal techniques. Far too little work has been done on improving the technology for this kind of "popular" construction. There is a huge effort needed both to develop improved technologies and to disseminate the resultant technological knowledge to those who need it. Note too that the health of people depends importantly on household hygiene, and homes and community buildings can be built in manners that enhance hygiene or make it difficult.

The labor saving devices univeral in homes of the North (e.g. washing machines, dryers, microwaves, vacuum cleaners, dish washers, household electrical tools) are largely absent from the homes of the poor, and the household communications technology of the Northern home (telephones, radios, televisions, computers with Internet connections) are much less common.

We think of home heating and cooling technology in terms of their enhancement of comfort and thus quality of life. It occurs to me that they may also have economic benefits to the family, as for example enhancing the learning fo now comfortable children.

Corbousier said "a house is a machine for living". In that spirit, one can think of improving the technology used in housing thereby helping people to live better.

Difficulty Defining Depresion Deemed Difficulty in Decisionmaking

I was listening to the Ira Flato science program on National Public Radio in which two experts were discussing "depression". The word is one of those which is used by the general public and by clinical professionals, and due to its origins in common speech is applied to a very wide variety of conditions from feeling sad to being paralyzed by brain dysfunction. Not surprisingly, what one is encouraged to do about the condition depends on the degree, severity, causes and duration of the condition.

From the point of view of this blog, the fuzziness of the concept of depression might be worth exploring. It is hard to design epidemiological instruments to measure the incidence, prevalence and severity of the condition. It is also hard to define clinical criteria for prescription for the disease, and thus to estimate the need for alternative treatments in the population, and thus the need for resources to adequately address that need.

Further Thoughts on Technology for Development

The emphasis of many of the people who write about science, technology and innovation for economic development seems to be manufacturing technology. That of course is a very important topic, and we even use the term "newly industrializing countries" to describe the most successful developing countries.

As I have pointed out, technological innovation in extractive industries is also important. We are learning to our distress that failure to attend to the need for innovation in agriculture can be very costly, not only financially but in terms of hunger and misery in the poorest nations. Artisanal fishing is being revolutionized, as I understand the situation, by the introduction of communications technology to allow the fishermen to find markets offering the best prices, the introduction of fish-finding technology, and the introduction of stock management technology. Mining depends of advances in exploration technology, extraction technology, and mineral beneficiation technology. Forestry is benefiting from the development of better growing trees and other technological advances.

In services one should recognize that all the infrastructure services are dependent on engineering. The engineering technologies not only involve the transfer of advances in engineering techniques from developed to developing nations, but the tailoring of engineering practice to developing country needs. Road building, for example, can benefit from the exploitation of local materials and designs to meet the special requirements of the local environment; the techniques used in labor intensive construction and maintenance of dirt roads are quite different from those involved in capital intensive construction of major highways.

Of course there is great interest in the impact of the information revolution technologies as applied to communications in developing nations, but there are also differences in electrical technologies for power applications in developing nations, especially in the application of off grid, small scale power generation.

Banking has been revolutionized by ICT, and health services have been made vastly more cost effective by advances in vaccines and other pharmaceuticals as well as by new diagnostic and epidemiological technologies. Education is only beginning to benefit from e-learning technologies which will be applied far more widely in the future. Indeed, think about the McDonnalds revolution, which is in part due to technological innovations in franchizing and commercial sales.

The process of technological innovation needed to contribute optimally to economic growth in developing nations involves this full spectrum of technologies and applications.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Reasons not to trust reason

The New Scientist presents several short video clips of serious thinkers talking about why they distrust human reason. This is worth five minutes of anyone's time!

Obama in Berlin

It was so nice to see a couple of hundred thousand people cheering for America and for an American politician. It made me think that Obama might repair the damage to America's image abroad done by the Bush administration faster than I ever imagined!

More musing -- continued

So what are the emerging disruptive technologies?

The personal computer wave has already crested.

The Internet and World Wide Web were the technologies of the dot.com boom.

The mobile phone looks like a great wave, but there are players already riding it which will be hard to compete with.

Biotechnology has been the next big wave for a few decades, and is still a technology that appears worth watching. It seems to have various branches:
  • agricultural applications,
  • pharmaceuticals produced in cell culture, from GM plants, or animals,
  • industrial (further away?)
  • others such as mineral beneficiation, creation of microorganisms for environmental cleanup applications.
Nanotechnology, which seems to be a coming bet for a number of emerging economies as well as of developed nations. Again, nanotechnology is a term which may hide the distinctions among several related technologies. Chip manufacturers are already working at nanoscale. Catalysis is an obvious area, and there are many people looking to biomedical applications of nanotechnology. Who knows whether the currently commercialized applications like sunscreens and dirt resistant clothing will be prototypes for an important industry.

I have a hunch that the will be important commercial opportunities coming out of neurobiology, ranging from medications to deal with mental problems to techniques to enhance learning and attention.

These are all areas in which scientific developments are leading to new technologies with commercial applications. There may also be other areas in which social and economic problems will require major technological innovation providing commercial opportunities.

The energy challenge may lead to new waves. Nuclear, which at least in the United States has been limited in application due to popular aversion to the risks it is perceived to involve, seeks likely to be more important. There is interest in a hydrogen economy, and in renewables.

More musing about technology and development

Some time ago a friend who was asked to advise a developing country about entry into international ICT markets wondered why they did not seek to enter high on the "value chain" but rather sought to begin with relatively labor-intensive, low-profit-margin operations with the hope of getting to more profitable operations in the future. His was a good question.

That seems to have been the path used by Singapore in entering the computer printer field and by India in pharmaceuticals. Yet would it not be smarter to skip the low profit margin areas and go directly for the gold? I can think of a couple of possible answers.

One is that value chains are complex, and it would be very difficult to enter in such a way as to appropriate the lions share of the profits. Rather a firm seeking to do so needs to enter at some point where it has a competitive advantage and then build the forward and backward linkages it needs to compete more broadly. There is a lot of tacit knowledge in a production process, and a new entrant has to master this knowledge. Developing countries often have some obvious advantages: low cost labor, some (like India) have underutilized highly educated workers, linkages to existing elements of the value chain (such as Irish linkages to Irish Americans during the 1990's or linkages from former colonies to former colonial centers), or specialized market access.

Another answer is that the current occupants of the most profitable niches in value chains will fight to retain their profitable niches. Clearly there are many examples of new entrants into value chains eventually eating the lunches of the firms previously dominating those chains. A dominant firm would seem more likely to accept a newcomer firm if the newcomer took over a low profitability portion of the value chain. In fact, for a vertically integrated firm, the allocation of profits among portions of the value chain may be somewhat arbitrary. Calving off a portion of the value chain to a low cost partner while assigning that portion a low profitability may result in higher profits for the core functions maintained by the dominant firm.

Now of course entrepreneurs in developing countries would love to replicate the success of Microsoft, eBay or Amazon. These were all tiny firms and they took on IBM and mass marketing megafirms and won. This kind of success seems to come when a firm gets in on the ground floor of a disruptive technology. Long wave theory suggests that such opportunities are relatively rare, and that the process of elaborating the industry built around such a technology can last decades.

Exploitation of the economic opportunities inherent in disruptive technologies, even when they exist, demands an entrepreneurial culture, sources of investment capital willing to accept high risk, and scientists willing to utilize their specialized knowedge to develop the derivative technologies. This latter point in turn suggests that there needs to be an active fundamental research community to assure that there are scientists available to act as gatekeepers for innovations in disruptive technology.

It turns out that there are a lot of places that have these ingredients in abundance and are hoping that their citizens will get the early adopter advantage due to those who first hop on to ride the wave of the next disruptive technology. Very few of these places are in poor countries, although some are forming in newly industrializing countries.

The Knowledge of the American Voting Public

Source: "Another Peek Inside the Brain of the Electorate," by Libby Copeland, The Washington Post, July 24, 2008.

The American Voter Revisited, was released last month, inspired by 1960's The American Voter. "Four years ago, Lewis-Beck and Jacoby and two other political scientists decided to take on "The American Voter" once more. They used the same methods to crunch the data and even organized the book the same way."
One thing that's certain is that Americans are consistent. They've had difficulty articulating their opinions in ways that satisfy political scientists for decades. ...... "The American Voter" was thick with statistical tables and a wonky theory called the "funnel of causality," all revealing that Americans have what William G. Jacoby of Michigan State University calls "incoherent, inconsistent, disorganized positions on issues."
However:
Some academics criticized "The American Voter" for depicting voters as "fools," while others suggested the voters were not so much fools as, uh, "cognitive misers."
So what does "Revised" say:
"The American Voter Revisited" is chock-full of depressing conclusions, couched in academic understatement. In-depth interviews conducted with 1,500 people during the two most recent presidential elections revealed that the "majority of people don't have many issues in mind" when they discuss voting, Lewis-Beck says. Sometimes they say they're attracted to a candidate because "I just don't think we should change parties right now." They tend to inherit their party allegiance from their parents, and those beliefs tend to stay fixed throughout their lives, he says.

"For many people," the authors of "Revisited" write, "dealing with political issues is too much of a bother."
And what do the counter-critics say now:
Many Americans vote primarily because of one or two or three issues, she says. They might care a whole lot about health care or prayer in schools and not at all about foreign policy, and maybe that leaves them sounding dumb when they're asked about Iraq. But they know enough about the issues they care about, and that's what they vote on.

And how do they gather what they know? Popkin, whose own studies suggest that Americans' awareness of issues has been growing for decades, argues that voters use shortcuts to make judgments about the candidates, relying on things like endorsements, the advice of friends, and the candidate's party. So what if they forget much of what they've learned, so long as they absorb the lessons?
Comment: Of course a very large number of Americans don't vote, and even more don't always vote. Still with some 300,000,000 people we should get a very accurate view of public opinion from those who do vote in an election.

The question I guess is how well does decision making via our voting system work. How many experts do you need to pay attention to the issues to provide the leadership that the voting public needs. How well do the social processes that result in voting behavior transform expert opinion into votes at the pole? Most important, can we find better systems to get the right answers for the election of our politicians?

Of course, the system does not depend on votes on issues, but rather on the votes of their representatives on the issues, and on the leadership of their elected branch officials on those issues. So the question is, does the system result in an effective political selection of representatives.

There are clearly lots of bad selections. They are the ones who make the front pages. But the system allows for a few bad apples by electing lots of politicians and having majority voting rules and checks and balances between the branches of government. Is this enough? Could it be better?

The issues in designing knowledge systems that work both to lead to good decisions and to make decision makers responsible to the public are very complex!
JAD

Military Closes Down Blogger

Source: "Silent Posting: With His Blog Kaboom, a Young Soldier Told of His War. Last Month, the Army Made Him Shut It Down." by Ernesto Londoño, The Washington Post, July 24, 2008.

Matthew Gallagher, better known as Lt. G, had his blog, Kaboom ordered taken down last month. The young soldier had been blogging since he was assigned to Iraq last year.
The blog's downfall was a May 28 posting that, in violation of military blogging rules, Gallagher failed to have vetted by a supervisor. (That the posting depicted an officer in the unit unflatteringly might have played a role. Gallagher declined a request to comment.)
The army might have done it better. Certainly there is a need to censor military postings to see that they don't provide militarily useful information to the enemy, but that power should be used cautiously. If a soldier transgresses the rules, if no harm is done, he should not be prevented from continuing blogging.

The good news is the the soldier has been promoted and is now a Captain, and that his girlfriend has revived Kaboom!

Musing about technology and development

The rule of 72 is that the rate of growth times doubling time equals 72. Thus if per capita income grows at three percent per year, it will double in 24 years. If per capita income grows at six percent per year, it will double in 12 years.

Per capita income generally increases because labor productivity increases. That may not be true of oil exporting countries, but who needs to think about making oil exporting countries richer? Not me.

These days it is generally accepted that labor productivity can increase through the increase in capital to labor ratio or from technological change -- doing things smarter. Of course when a country changes capital to labor ratios, then the country moves from more labor-saving technologies towards more capital-intensive technologies.

The point I would make is that if a country that can save and invest enough to increase gross national product per year, if it can also add an additional three percent per year introducing better ways of doing things, then it reduces the time to double per capita income from 24 to 12 years. That is the difference between multiplying per capita income by a factor of four versus a factor of 16 in a half century. No wonder that innovation is being added to saving and investment to accumulate capital as an important objective of development policy.

The development path for the least developed country seems to involve a shift from subsistence level rural life based on extractive industries -- farming, fishing, etc. -- to urban life based on manufacturing and service industries.

This involves two kinds of technological change. Many armers have to change technology to produce more food and fiber per worker, but many other farmers have to leave their farms and learn to work in factories or service industries. Thus technological development involves both improving the technology in existing industries, but also introducing technology for new industrial activities.

The other day I posted on Howard Pack's article (titled "Asian Successes vs. Middle Eastern Failures: The Role of Technology Transfer in Economic Development."). That article contrasts the development paths of the industrializing countries of Asia with the less rapidly growing countries of the Middle East. Pack points out that the industrializing countries had developed export oriented econoomies and had acquired technology rapidly especially through transfers from abroad. That is a path focused on developing the jobs and acquiring the associated technologies for the increasing urban populations of the industrializing nations.

The poorest countries are the most rural, with the vast majority of their populations living in rural areas. For such countries increasing the productivity of agriculture is necessary, because the increased yield from agriculture is likely to be the best mechanism to generate the income needed for investment, and the best mechanism to free farm workers to take up the industrial and service industry employment.

Ideally technological innovation should be economy wide, improving the productivity of primary, secondary and tertiary industries. However, the different industries have different innovation systems. For the poorest countries, it seems to me that policy emphasis should be placed on the agricultural innovation systems. As countries industrialize, the emphasis should shift to focus more and more on innovation systems for the secondary and tertiary industries.

To maximize economic growth, the scarce resources should be allocated appropriately among these innovation systems. Those resources include capital, but also the scarce capacity to make and implement good policies.

Note, however, that the allocation of benefits from innovation depend on the where the innovations are taking place. Rural populations can be expected to benefit more from successful agricultural innovations than from successful industrial innovations. Those with capital are likely to benefit more from innovations in more capital intensive industries, while those in labor intensive industries are likely to benefit more from innovations in their industries.

The allocation of resources by market processes seems likely to be influenced to benefit more those with more economic power. The allocation of resources by political processes seems to be likely to be influenced more by those with more political power. And, of course, economic and political power are often correlated.

There are countervailing processes. For example, the right to life has been recognized to imply that health service innovations serving the poor be given priority. International donors, who provide a significant portion of national budgets in some of the poorest countries and which focus more on poverty alleviation than on economic development per se, can also emphasize innovation systems serving the poor. Thus, one has seen emphasis on appropriate technology and microfinance in the donor agencies.

The fundamental point is that there should be a shift in the balance of innovation policies from as countries proceed from abject poverty to the early and intermediate stages of industrialization. Thus policy advice on technological innovation should be tailored to the circumstances of the individual country. Of course it is obvious that this is true in the sense that countries with different physical resources and different environments need different technologies, but it is also true in terms of the degree to which a country has made the transformation from a rural agricultural society to an urban industrial society.

Moreover, one should measure the success of overall innovation policy not only in terms of rate of growth of per capita GDP, but also in terms of the changes in the distribution of income. The United States is an example of a country that has experienced relatively rapid growth of per capita GDP over the last decade, but in which the beneficiaries of that growth have been almost entirely limited to the most wealth members of the society. I would have preferred more equitable growth, even if slower, had it benefitted the most needy more.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

"Beyond Bias and Barriers: Fulfilling the Potential of Women in Academic Science and Engineering"



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Beyond Bias and Barriers: Fulfilling the Potential of Women in Academic Science and Engineering

Committee on Maximizing the Potential of Women in Academic Science and Engineering, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine, 2007.

Description:
The United States economy relies on the productivity, entrepreneurship, and creativity of its people. To maintain its scientific and engineering leadership amid increasing economic and educational globalization, the United States must aggressively pursue the innovative capacity of all its people—women and men. However, women face barriers to success in every field of science and engineering; obstacles that deprive the country of an important source of talent. Without a transformation of academic institutions to tackle such barriers, the future vitality of the U.S. research base and economy are in jeopardy.

Beyond Bias and Barriers explains that eliminating gender bias in academia requires immediate overarching reform, including decisive action by university administrators, professional societies, federal funding agencies and foundations, government agencies, and Congress. If implemented and coordinated across public, private, and government sectors, the recommended actions will help to improve workplace environments for all employees while strengthening the foundations of America's competitiveness.

Is the Department of Labor sacrificing health of workers for corporate profits?

According to the Washington Post today the Bush administration seems to be moving in secret to issue rules which should have a strong scientific basis.

Extracts:
Political appointees at the Department of Labor are moving with unusual speed to push through in the final months of the Bush administration a rule making it tougher to regulate workers' on-the-job exposure to chemicals and toxins.

The agency did not disclose the proposal, as required, in public notices of regulatory plans that it filed in December and May. Instead, Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao's intention to push for the rule first surfaced on July 7, when the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) posted on its Web site that it was reviewing the proposal, identified only by its nine-word title.

The text of the proposed rule has not been made public, but according to sources briefed on the change and to an early draft obtained by The Washington Post, it would call for reexamining the methods used to measure risks posed by workplace exposure to toxins. The change would address long-standing complaints from businesses that the government overestimates the risk posed by job exposure to chemicals.......

(T)he fast-track approach has brought criticism from workplace-safety advocates, unions and Democrats in Congress. Some accuse the Bush administration of working secretly to give industry a parting gift that will help it delay or block safety regulations after President Bush leaves office.......

The OMB has been trying to address the issue of risk assessment since 2006, when it attempted to set new standards governing how a host of federal agencies reach their conclusions. That plan was withdrawn after the National Academy of Sciences called it "fatally flawed" because it lacked scientific grounding......

Typically, before drafting a rule, agency officials consult with staff members, lawyers and outside experts, and sometimes industry and other interested parties. But Misir initially did not consult scientific and workplace-risk-assessment experts in OSHA and the Mine Safety and Health Administration, according to sources briefed on her work.

Charles Gordon, a recently retired Labor Department lawyer who worked on regulations in OSHA's solicitor's office for 32 years, said the policy office does not usually take the lead on rules involving risk assessments. "Normally, issues of health science like risk assessment are performed by OSHA and MSHA, that have statutory authority and expertise in the area," Gordon said......

The July submission of its proposal broke a deadline set by White House Chief of Staff Joshua B. Bolten, who had ordered that all agencies submit proposed regulations before June 1 and "resist the historical tendency of administrations to increase regulatory activity in their final months."

Nevertheless, the OMB agreed to work with Labor on the proposal. The July 7 posting on its Web site shocked many inside and outside the agency who had been following the events.
Comment: The article sets forth a pretty convincing case that political appointees sought to bypass scientific review process in order to make politically motivated modifications in regulations that would have potential health impacts. JAD

"Human Capital and Economic Activity"

"Human Capital and Economic Activity in Urban America"
Jaison R. Abel and Todd M. Gabe, Staff Report Federal Reserve Bank of New York, July 2008 Number 332.

Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between human capital and economic activity in U.S. metropolitan areas, extending the existing literature in two important ways. First, we utilize new data on metropolitan-area GDP to measure economic activity. Using educational attainment as an indicator of human capital, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in the proportion of residents with a college degree is associated with a 2.3 percent increase in metropolitan-area GDP per capita. Second, we move beyond the conventional proxy for human capital—educational attainment—to develop new measures that reflect the types of knowledge within U.S. metropolitan areas. Results show that knowledge associated with the provision of producer services and information technology are particularly important determinants of economic vitality in U.S. metropolitan areas.
The SSTI Weekly Digest for July 23, 2008 states:
While not the subject of the paper, community and regional policymakers may expect if they couple this fact with the other benefits associated with having a more educated populace - such as lower crime rates, lower vacancy rates, higher property values, and more entrepreneurship - that subsidized higher education programs should "pay" for themselves through higher tax revenues and lower costs to the public.
Comment: The research suggests that investment in higher education pays off in economic growth in U.S. urban areas. I am not sure that the SSTI corollary holds. For example, it may be simply that educated people are more likely to figure out that there is more money in the big cities and move to one.

Indeed from a national point of view, I want people to move to the places in which their education pays off best. So, perhaps federal support for scholarships and loan guarantees are more appropriate than local subsidies. Indeed, what might make most sense would be federal incentives to local subsidies, reflecting the reality that while some recipients of locally subsidized educational funding will remain in the local area, others will be moved and there will be spillover benefits to other cities in the country. Of course, all of this depends on the United States being able to retain the university graduates it trains.
JAD


This table of the highest income metropolitan statistical areas in the United States from the report might be of interest.

" Food crisis looms in East Africa"


Ethiopia: 4.6m need emergency food support.
Another 5.7m need extra food or cash
Somalia: 2.6m facing acute food shortages -
could rise to 3.5m by end of 2008
Kenya: 1.2m need urgent food supplies
Uganda: 707,000 in dire need of food
Djibouti: 80,000 facing acute food shortages

Source: BBC News, 22 July 2008

Excerpt:
More than 14 million people in the Horn of Africa need food aid because of drought and rocketing food and fuel prices, the United Nations has warned.

The UN World Food Programme says it urgently needs $400m (£200m) to prevent starvation in the east African region.

Ethiopia is worst hit, with 10 million people - some 12% of the population - in need of extra food supplies.
Comment: The combination of food production problems due to bad weather and international high food prices is deadly. Let us hope the donor community is generous in the provision of funds to help poor nations deal with famine conditions.

I wonder whether we will not see this kind of condition more frequently as climate change continues? I would expect more frequent situations in which local food shortages result from seasons or longer periods of bad weather. I would also fear that as there are global shifts in production, and perhaps unwillingness to invest in agricultural capital as changes in crop ranges are occurring, there may be future shortfalls in global production.
JAD

Cat

I found this on Gavinsblog, thought to be the best Irish blog.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

U.S.-Iranian Science and Technology Workshop

The National Academy Press has just published Science and Technology and the Future Development of Societies: International Workshop Proceedings, the proceedings of a workshop held in Iran in 2006.


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Thinking in numbers

I just heard a discussion of the numbers of people on the U.S. terrorist watch list. There was a recent story that the list included one million names, which represented some 400,000 people (with names plus aliases). Of these we are told, 95 percent are foreigners. Thus we can assume that there are perhaps 20,000 U.S. citizens on the watch list.

Now my name is a common one, so I am aware that if there are one million names on a list, and the list is managed reasonably well so as to allow for alternative spellings and alternative versions of first names (e.g. John, Jack, Johnny and Jackie, not to mention Jon and Sean) there are a lot more people with their names on the list.

But is 20,000 a large number of Americans for the list. It clearly is if you think about how many FBI agents it takes to keep track of 20,000 people. It is also a huge number if you consider how many of these people must be innocent (remember Senator Edward Kennedy was on the list as was Nelson Mandela) and having their liberty limited and privacy limited by government surveillance.

The Census Bureau tells me that there are just over 300 million Americans. Thus 20,000 people represent one in 15,000 of our citizens. Would you be surprised to think that one in 15,000 people would be worth watching in case they committed a mass murder or other act that inspired terror? Maybe not.

After all, we keep 2.3 million people in prison (according to the Washington Post). In theory, I assume we imprison them because we suspect that they might otherwise victimize the public with new crimes (for if they were no threat to society, would it not make more sense to put these folk to work to pay restitution to society for the crimes they committed in the past). So maybe 20,000 Americans is not too long a list of possible terrorists.

The point, in terms of the focus of this blog on knowledge for development, is that what we think of a number depends on the context in which it is framed.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Asian Successes vs. Middle Eastern Failures

HOWARD PACK published a good, relatively short article in the Spring 2008 edition of Issues in Science and Technology titled "Asian Successes vs. Middle Eastern Failures: The Role of Technology Transfer in Economic Development."

The article contrasts the development experience of the rapidly growing countries in Asia with slower-growing Middle Eastern counties. He finds growth in his model Asian countries was associated with a virtuous cycle of export oriented growth and rapid technology acquisition, while the Middle Eastern countries were much less oriented toward manufactured product exports and had much less active patterns of technology imports.

A List of Decision Analysis Tools

There are a lot of tools around that can help you in doing analysis to help make better decisions. Here are some in no special order (with links to more information):

As well as the more formal economic analyses
Also used in donor agencies for project analyses

Trust in Baby Faced Execs????

Would you trust this person?
Image Source: PAVC-Babyface@blogger.com


Source of text: "The Face of Innocence" by Shankar Vedantam, The Washington Post, July 21, 2008.

From the department of "we think with our (evolved and emotional) brains, not (just) our (rational) minds".

Vedantam writes:
Jiang, Gorn and Johar recently published their analysis in the Journal of Consumer Research. They had volunteers evaluate claims of innocence made by the chief executive of a fictitious company called Biomedic, in the context of "news reports" that the company's cold remedy, Coughless, was producing unexpected side effects. The volunteers were given a statement from the company in which the chief executive denied knowing about the side effects ahead of time.

All volunteers were shown a photo of the chief executive; without their knowledge, some volunteers saw a picture whose features had been electronically morphed to appear more babyish -- with large eyes and a relatively small nose and chin. Other volunteers saw a photo that had been morphed to look more aquiline and mature.

"When a PR crisis hits, consumers ask themselves, 'Why did this happen? Who is to blame?' and if the company is blamed, then the next question is, 'Was it intentional?' " Johar said.

People who spend a lot of time tracking the particular company might not be swayed by the appearance of spokesmen and the chief executive, but for the vast majority of people, who form judgments about reputation through fleeting glances, appearances matter. The volunteers in the study were more likely to believe the chief executive's assertions of innocence when his face was babyish rather than mature.

Johar said the bias persisted only up to a point: "We found that if the crisis was very severe, the face did not help -- so even a baby face can't get away with murder."......

The researchers found they were able to reverse the bias in the course of the experiment: Volunteers were shown a number of faces matched with descriptions of various kinds of wrongdoing; the people with babyish features were all said to be guilty of intentional crimes. When these volunteers were tested with the various kinds of chief executive faces and claims of innocence, they were more likely to believe a mature-faced chief executive rather than a baby-faced one.
Comment: Being aware that such a bias exists, the question arises of how one can minimize its impact in important decisions. Perhaps one approach might be to insulate oneself from the biasing input at least during the analytic process involved in decision making. Try using decision tools on paper or on computer screen that do not include photos. JAD

Where Does all the Computer Power Go?

According to Walter Pincus in today's Washington Post
President Bush's single largest request for funds and "most important initiative" in the fiscal 2009 intelligence budget is for the Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative, a little publicized but massive program whose details "remain vague and thus open to question," according to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
Given that the Intelligence budget of the United States must be very large indeed, even though the amount of the Cybersecurity initiative is secret it too must be quite large.

2000 Showed Up At Netroots Nation

Nancy Pelosi at Netroots Nation

The Washington Post today tells me that some 2000 people showed up at Netroots Nation 2008, the meeting for bloggers with a progressive political orientation.
Hardest Worker and Best Dressed honors went to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who kicked off Saturday morning's program with a freewheeling 40-minute "Ask the Speaker" session. ("Damn, Nancy looks grrreat in that pantsuit," a blogger was overheard saying.) Most Popular would go to Al Gore, who brought the crowd of more than 2,000 conventioneers to its feet with his surprise appearance, repeatedly asking bloggers to visit WeCanSolveIt.org, home to his new group, the Alliance for Climate Protection.
Comment: Sounds like my kind of people, except I don't do many mob scenes these days. Lets hope that we bloggers can turn out the voters for Obama and the progressive causes! JAD

Sunday, July 20, 2008

"U. S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology"

Titus Galama and James Hosek, RAND, 2008. (PDF, 189 pages.)

This is a very nice report! I don't know if I agree with its optimistic conclusions that the United States is doing well in science and technology since the real issue for policy makers it whether it will continue to hold a competitive edge in the commercialization of new technological ideas over the next generation. That outcome may depend more on economic policy and more general institutions and policies than on science, technology and education policies. The report focuses on the science, technology and education indices and is relatively silent on the others.

However, there is a wealth of information in the report, and much of it is presented beautifully, aiding reader understanding.

I quote from the summary findings:
The United States accounts for 40 percent of total world R&D spending and 38 percent of patented new technology inventions by the industrialized nations of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), employs 37 percent (1.3 million)of OECD researchers (FTE), produces 35 percent, 49 percent, and 63 percent, respectively, of total world publications, citations, and highlycited publications, employs 70 percent of the world’s Nobel Prize winners and 66 percent of its most-cited individuals, and is the home to 75 percent of both the world’s top 20 and top 40 universities and 58 percent of the top 100.

U.S. Engineering Degrees Decline in 2007

Source: SSTI Weekly Digest, June 25, 2008 Issue.

" Despite a growing national demand for their skills, the number of engineers graduating from American colleges went down in 2007, according to latest edition of Profiles of Engineering and Engineering Technology Colleges, prepared by the American Society for Engineering Education.

"The decline in engineering bachelor’s degrees was the first since the 1990s, ending seven years of growth. Although the drop was small ­ 1.2 percent from the previous year ­ ASEE fears it is the beginning of a trend that may continue for several years. That’s because undergraduate enrollment dropped both in 2004 and 2005.

"Engineering master’s degrees show an even sharper drop than bachelor’s degrees, having declined 8.8 percent since 2005. Ph.D. degrees, by contrast, have been growing an average of 11 percent since 2004."

Dabba

Dabba preconfigured VoIP phone

Dabba.co.za, provides inexpensive voice and data services to residents, businesses, and community centers in Orange Farm, South Africa. According to Steve Song:
Dabba interconnects with Telkom, Vodacom, and CellC offering Dabba callers the possibility of connecting into the national fixed and mobile networks. Dabba offers this service at the same cost as making a phone call from a community container, with the added convenience that users can do so from their own homes.

Dabba airtime voucher Payment is made, as you might expect, via pay-as-you-go cards. Dabba offers both voice and data pay-as-you-go cards........

He has now settled on simple commodity wireless routers such as the Linksys WRT54G range of routers. These devices can have their internal software (firmware) replaced with Open Source software that allows the router to run mesh networking and VoIP applications. This means that a R700 router can be turned into a powerful device for delivering local voice and data services. Each router is capable of networking (meshing) seamlessly with others nearby creating an inexpensive web of connectivity.

Impact of Online Journals on Citation Rates

The Economist has a relatively long article dated July 17th 2008 based on "Electronic Publication and the Narrowing of Science and Scholarship" by James A. Evans (Science 18 July 2008: Vol. 321. no. 5887, pp. 395 - 399). Evans has done research utilizing citations from a huge number of scientific articles in a very large number of journals. He finds:
Collectively, the models presented illustrate that as journal archives came online, either through commercial vendors or freely, citation patterns shifted. As deeper backfiles became available, more recent articles were referenced; as more articles became available, fewer were cited and citations became more concentrated within fewer articles. These changes likely mean that the shift from browsing in print to searching online facilitates avoidance of older and less relevant literature. Moreover, hyperlinking through an online archive puts experts in touch with consensus about what is the most important prior work—what work is broadly discussed and referenced. With both strategies, experts online bypass many of the marginally related articles that print researchers skim. If online researchers can more easily find prevailing opinion, they are more likely to follow it, leading to more citations referencing fewer articles. Research on the extreme inequality of Internet hyperlinks (14), scientific citations (15, 16), and other forms of "preferential attachment" (17, 18) suggests that near-random differences in quality amplify when agents become aware of each other's choices. Agents view others' choices as relevant information—a signal of quality—and factor them into their own reading and citation selections. By enabling scientists to quickly reach and converge with prevailing opinion, electronic journals hasten scientific consensus. But haste may cost more than the subscription to an online archive: Findings and ideas that do not become consensus quickly will be forgotten quickly.

This research ironically intimates that one of the chief values of print library research is poor indexing. Poor indexing—indexing by titles and authors, primarily within core journals—likely had unintended consequences that assisted the integration of science and scholarship. By drawing researchers through unrelated articles, print browsing and perusal may have facilitated broader comparisons and led researchers into the past. Modern graduate education parallels this shift in publication—shorter in years, more specialized in scope, culminating less frequently in a true dissertation than an album of articles (19).

"Where Do Innovations Come From? Transformations in U.S. National Innovation System, 1970-2006"

Here is the summary of the report published by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation:
In this report, ITIF finds that the nature of the U.S. innovation system has changed dramatically over the course of the last 40 years. Using an innovative research method, UC Davis scholars Fred Block and Mathew Keller analyze a sample of innovations recognized by R&D Magazine as being among the top 100 innovations of the year over the last four decades. They find that while in the 1970s almost all winners came from corporations acting on their own, more recently over two-thirds of the winners have come from partnerships involving business and government, including federal labs and federally-funded university research. Moreover, in 2006 77 of the 88 U.S. entities that produced award-winning innovations were beneficiaries of federal funding.

These findings suggest that to succeed in the future, U.S. innovation policy must help support and reinforce our natural national advantage in collaboration. Thus, funding for the U.S. government’s technology initiatives should be expanded and made more secure, and the coordination of these technology initiatives across the federal government, particularly those that support partnerships between firms, universities, and federal laboratories, must be improved.
Comment: I suspect that there is some truth in "long wave" theory, and that there were more innovation opportunities coming from the Internet, World Wide Web and developing Information Infrastructure recently than there were from the technology systems most important four decades ago.

I think it also takes a while for government funding of research to yield commercial technologies, especially if the government is focusing on public goods as it probably should. There was much less government funded research in the 1940s and 50s than in the 1990's and this decade. Still, it is gratifying to see that government funded R&D is paying off. JAD

Texas Hold em and Toussaint L'Ouverture


This is a thought that came from late night reading of Madison Smartt Bell's biography and watching televised tournament poker.

Texas Hold em tournaments give huge prizes to the players who make the final tables, and consequently draw very good players. The game is deceptively simple, but players are successful by their effective use of tactics. The great player understands the probabilities that his/her hand will fill, and if it fills will beat other hands at the table. The great player reads his/her opponents at the table, and makes good judgments as to what their bets mean about their hands. The great player adjusts his/her tactics to both the current situation at the table and the stage of the tournament. Most important for the point of this posting, the great player varies his/her own play so that it is very hard for opponents to draw correct conclusions about his/her hand from his/her behavior and bets.

Toussaint L'Ouverture, who rose to rule Haiti at the time of its revolt against France and slavery, faced a most difficult competition among his contemporaries. Not only were there political and military leaders from France, Spain and England, but also white, colored and black leaders of many indigenous factions all competing for power. Toussaint's competition, however, was one in which losers frequently were killed.

Toussaint was amazingly effective in moving his troops so as to appear where they was not expected. He confounded politicians. He was exceedingly difficult for his contemporaries to read and to predict his responses to their moves. Bell mentions that Toussaint often hid his own influence behind the acts of his subordinates. He was so successful as to rise from slavery to dictatorial power in his own land and world fame.

Bell suggests, and it seems reasonable, that Toussaint was both a Catholic and a follower of Haitian Vodou. One of the key tenets of Vodou is apparently that the individual can channel different loa, or otherworld spirits, at different times. Bell then assumes that Toussaint confounded his peers by channeling different loa at different times, sometimes channeling a warlike loa and sometimes a loa more favorable to diplomacy, sometimes a loa disposed to act precipitously and sometimes one which acts with deliberation.

If, as seems likely, Toussaint's Haitian peers believed that unpredictably he channeled different loa at different times, that would make it difficult for them to predict his next act, or to interpret the meaning of recent acts. Indeed, were he himself to believe this, it might help him to vary his behavior by assuming one or another personal chosen unconsciously for the circumstances.

However, a good military leader in a period of revolutionary conflict and insurgency would be even harder to read and predict than a good tournament Texas Hold em player in a big game. Toussaint by all accounts was great at the game of revolutionary war and insurgency. One suspects that he was just very gifted in ways that would have been familiar to Renaissance Italian or ancient Persian leaders who dealt in shifting alliances and societies in which deceit and betrayal were survival skills. Indeed, his contemporary Napoleon was no mean player in the games of military and political deceit.

One wonders whether American political and military leaders are as good at these games as are the leaders of indigenous factions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

U.S. Contributions to the UN

The Better World Campaign reported at the end of June that the Congress had approved a US$665 million to the United Nations and international organizations in its Supplementary Appropriation Bill. That contribution should reduce the U.S. debt to the United Nations family of organizations to $1.734 billion.
As approved by Congress, the supplemental funding bill includes $524 million to help address U.S. shortfalls to critical UN peacekeeping missions, including more than $334 million for the UN peacekeeping mission in Darfur, Sudan (UNAMID) and another $190 million for peacekeeping missions to countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Haiti, Liberia, and Sudan.

The approved legislation also includes $141 million for the U.S. government’s Contributions to International Organizations (CIO) account, which will finance U.S. contributions to the UN assistance missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The CIO account also supports the UN’s core funding and key peace and security organizations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization.
I am also informed that for the seventh year in a row the U.S. is to its withhold contribution to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

2008 State of the Future

State of the Futures Index
The Millennium Project publishes a report periodically assessing the current state of the world and projecting developments in the future. The 2008 report is to be published in August 2008; the website provides information on the report and a ten page summary. The report and accompanying CD are expensive, but the summary can be downloaded free. by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu.

How much is a human life worth?

Source: Washington Post staff reporting | GRAPHIC: By Tobey, The Washington Post - July 19, 2008

Different U.S. Government agencies use different estimates of the value of a human life in cost-benefit studies, and that value can change from time to time.

It is generally believed that people assign more value to the lives of family members and friends than to strangers. One wonders how much value the U.S. Government assigns to the lives of citizens of foreign nations. How much is an African life worth to the Congress? Of an Iraqi life?

Friday, July 18, 2008

Issues in Science and Technology: Two Issues

The last two online issues of Issues in Science and Technology have a number of items relating to science and technology in developing nations.

The Winter 2008 issue.
The Spring 2008 issue.

Decision Architecture: and How Governments should frame decisions

Eric J. Johnson presents a review in Science of the book Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein.

I quote:
the many factors that influence choice represent a choice architecture. The analogy is to the fact that the architect of a building determines quite a bit of the behavior of the building's users through the placement of doors, hallways, offices, and perhaps even bathrooms......Every way of presenting a choice will influence the decision-maker in some way. For example, all ways of presenting a choice have a (usually implicit) default, and these options will be chosen more often than if other defaults had been selected by the architect......anyone who poses a choice is a choice architect--the role is performed by supermarket, stockbroker, doctor, and government agency alike. The concept of choice architecture is a big idea, one clearly worthy of a book on its own....

They (the authors) suggest that government should, often, offer people a choice in matters of public policy, but that this choice be provided with an architecture that favors people's best interest. It is difficult to disagree with some of Thaler and Sunstein's examples. Given that Americans do not save enough toward retirement, it seems responsible to change the default (as has been done in some retirement plans) to a reasonable savings rate rather than the original default of no savings, but give everyone making this decision the option of changing that level.

University Research and Technology Innovation

Source: ASSOCIATION OF UNIVERSITY TECHNOLOGY MANAGERS via Science magazine.

Foreign Universities Turn out Talented Students!

Source: "U.S. GRADUATE TRAINING: Top Ph.D. Feeder Schools Are Now Chinese" by Jeffrey Mervis
Science 11 July 2008: Vol. 321. no. 5886, p. 185.

The five universities whose graduates won the most Ph.D's in the United States in 2006 were in decreasing order of number of doctorates:
  • Tsinghua University (China)
  • Peking University (China)
  • University of California, Berkeley
  • Seoul National University (South Korea)
  • Cornell University and the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Of course, in interpreting this information one must look at the size of the university (some smaller schools may have a higher percentage of graduates go on to PhD's) and the selectivity of the universities in enrolling undergraduates.

European Research Area Green Paper

The Green Paper produced under the auspices of the European Commission addresses what must be done to create a unified and attractive European Research Area. The brief Green Paper, available in the major European languages, is accompanied by a staff written background paper in English. German and French.

According to an editorial in Science magazine (11 July 2008)
investment in terms of percent of gross domestic product has remained flat for the last decade at around 1.8 to 1.9% (the goal is 3% for 2010). Although the ERA is theoretically the sum of 27 national programs, most member states have not delivered as far as restructuring their own systems to coordinate with a broader European network, dealing with inflexible academic structures, and addressing insufficient research funding.

An Internet mediated publishing phenomenon

The Shack by William Young is an Internet phenomenon, apparently having sold more than one million copies after having been turned down by a number of publishers. Self-published by the author, and benefiting from about $300 in advertising, the book has risen to best seller lists on the New York Times, Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Apparently the book has benefited from word of mouth in the religious communities but it has also benefited from Internet publicity and online sales.

Understanding Corporate Information Technology Investment

The Center for Research on Information Technology in Organizations (CRITO) of the University of California, Irvine publishes The CRITO Review. The April, 2008 edition focuses on CRITO research with the following articles:
  • "Corporate Governance and the Returns to IT Investment" By Joanna Ho
  • "Risk and Return Underlying IT Investments" By Sanjeev Dewan
  • "The Effects of Competition Between Firms on IT Investments" By VC Choudhary

"300 Advisers Shape Obama’s Foreign Policy"

This article by ELISABETH BUMILLER in The New York Times (July 18, 2008) states that Denis McDonough, 38, is Mr. Obama’s top foreign policy aide, heading a virtual organization that has been divided into 20 teams based on regions and issues.
Mr. Obama’s core team is led by Susan E. Rice, an assistant secretary of state for African affairs in the Clinton administration, who has pushed for a tougher response to the crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan, and Anthony Lake, Mr. Clinton’s first national security adviser, who was criticized for the administration’s failure to confront the genocide in Rwanda in 1994 and now acknowledges the inaction as a major mistake.

The core group also includes Gregory B. Craig, a former top official in the Clinton State Department who served as the president’s lawyer during his impeachment trial; Richard J. Danzig, a Navy secretary in the Clinton administration; Mark W. Lippert, Mr. Obama’s former Senate foreign policy adviser, who just returned from a Navy tour of duty in Iraq; and Mr. McDonough.

Militarization of U.S. Foreign Aid

The Washington Post today reports
U.S. aid to Africa is becoming increasingly militarized, resulting in skewed priorities and less attention to longer-term development projects that could lead to greater stability across the continent, according to a report released Thursday by the advocacy group Refugees International.
The article also notes:
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned this week against the risk of a "creeping militarization" of U.S. foreign policy and said the State Department should lead U.S. engagement with other countries.

The Pentagon, which controlled about 3 percent of official aid money a decade ago, now controls 22 percent, while the U.S. Agency for International Development's share has declined from 65 percent to 40 percent, according to the 56-page report.
Comment: It seems very likely that the division of the foreign aid efforts of the United States in this way must make them less efficient and less cost effective.

The management of foreign assistance is not easy, and is not likely to be well done by inexperienced people, or by people who do not thoroughly understand the recipient people and their society. I am not sure that even USAID continues to be adequately staffed to do a good job. However, it seems very unlikely that the other agencies that are now dispensing aid are better equipped to do it well.

The increasing number of people advocating "soft diplomacy" with a strong component of foreign aid are doing so under the assumption that good will expressed in help will convince others that we want their friendship, and in so doing gain that friendship. Making foreign aid an instrument of military power or other coercive efforts will not achieve that end.
JAD



P.S. Incidentally, the recent announcements that the Senate and House of Representatives have passed bills authorizing $50 billion for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria should not be misunderstood. That is over a five year period. It sets a limit on how much can be appropriated for the program, but the actual appropriations will be done year by year during that period. I would guess that, given the economic situation we face today, much less will actually be appropriated for these worthy programs. JAD

Ethnic Palestinians in Trouble in Iraq

Refugees International reports that "34,000 stateless Palestinians have lived in Iraq since 2003. Since the beginning of U.S. military operations in Iraq, many suffered persecution at the hands of the Iraqi government and other armed groups. More than 3,000 fled to the Syrian-Iraqi border, where they live in makeshift tents in the desert with limited access to basic services. Syria refuses to allow them to enter its territory and only a few have been resettled, mostly to Sweden and Chile." It is now planned "to move these people to relocate this population to pre-fabricated housing in a Khartoum neighborhood, with no path to citizenship."

Thursday, July 17, 2008

The Manhattan Project

Yesterday, July 16th, was the anniversary of the first atom bomb explosion. CSPAN3 did a marathon of substantive discussions on the Manhattan Project as part of its history coverage.

I had previously mentioned that the project was huge. It built three cities which combined to house a population of about 100,000 people in out of the way sites. The Oak Ridge site, apparently built close to the Tennessee Valley Project for access to electricity, used a significant part of the electrical power of the United States. It also used a significant part of the silver reserves of the United States to make the wires used in the magnets for one of the separation processes.

It seemed to me that a project of that magnitude was beyond the experience and understanding of the scientists of the time. It may also have been beyond the understanding of the politicians of the time, who may not have understood fully how much of the American resource base it absorbed that might otherwise have been directed to other military projects. I thought it had been possible only because of the experience of engineers, especially civil and military engineers in large projects, including canals, the continental railway and road systems, and the national power grid and hydroelectric dams supplying it.

Indeed the project was so large, complex and costly that European nations were probably correct in deciding that they could not produce an atom bomb during the war.

The CSPAN discussions also made me realize that the success of the project was also the result of the industrial capacity of the United States, the "can-do" attitudes of its industrial leaders, and their willingness to bet their large firms on the effort to build an atom bomb.

I am again struck by the achievement of General Groves who lead the project and who also bet his health and his career on its successful outcome.

"Life Sciences in Ireland"

Ireland has moved from a scientific backwater of Europe to develop a vibrant effort to innovate industrially based on advances in the life sciences. In this special supplement of TheScientist.com (July 2008), the process of this transformation is reviewed and the current situation is described. The supplement has a number of articles by Irish experts, divided into three sections: Policy, Industry, and Research.

A Comment on Shermer on Thinking

Michael Shermer, who writes the "Skeptic" column in Scientific American, has an article in the August 2008 issue focusing on "a habit of human cognition—thinking anecdotally comes naturally, whereas thinking scientifically does not." He holds that this is a result of our evolutionary history, since (he feels) false assumptions of positive causality between co-occurring events is seldom fatal, while false assumption of no-causality between such events may be.

I am surprised by such an unscientific leap by a scientific skeptic. How does he know that the superstitious thinking is not a social construct more than a biological one? How does he know what has or has not been selected for by an eons long evolutionary process.

Of course, I agree with his more fundamental point that thinking anecdotally far too often leads to superstitious behavior, and that scientific epistemology is a great advance that offers great promise to improve our thought processes.

His specific example, of the foolishness of the superstitious belief in Switchgrass based drinks as a sovereign remedy for all ones ills seems well taken. The photo of Shermer and his two colleagues tasting the stuff is worth the price of the magazine!

SciAm Perspectives: We Can Do More

The August 2008 issue of Scientific American has an article on the current global food crisis.

"Global food prices have roughly doubled in three years." The price increases and their impact on hunger were discussed at the World Food Summit in Rome in early June. "The current crisis means that another 100 million hungry may join the 854 million who already lack sufficient daily nourishment. An immediate response should include policies that discourage grain hoarding, that reapportion the way food aid is delivered and that ensure that subsidies for food purchases are carefully targeted to reach the truly poor. Just shipping more grain to Africa, by far the most vulnerable region, will not suffice. Over the long haul, science and technology have a big role to play."

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

The Black-footed ferrit is again in trouble

The New York Times reports that not only is the black-footed ferret, an endangered species, threatened with extinction due to plague, but the Forest Service has poisoned a large tract of land adjacent to their habitat to keep it free of prairie dogs (which are the food of the ferrets). If the Forest Service had not poisoned the land, prairie dogs would almost certainly move in, the ferrets would follow, and the survival of the species would be more probable.

This seems to be a situation in which the government is putting the economic interests of local ranchers, whose grazing lands might be devalued were the prairie dogs to get through the buffer zone and be introduced into ranch lands, against the interests of the rest of the citizens of the United States and indeed the world, who are generally in favor of saving this charismatic species.

Certainly the government needs to balance such interests, and the career employees of the Forest Service (many of whom I have known over time) try very hard to make the right calls.

I wish I had more confidence in the political appointees of the Bush administration who run the Forest Service in doing as good a job representing all of our interests.

Perhaps an explanation of underdevelopment

Source: "The Impassive Bystander: Someone Is Hurt, in Need of Compassion. Is It Human Instinct to Do Nothing?" by DeNeen L. Brown, The Washington Post, July 16, 2008.

Unfortunately there are many examples of a person in trouble -- hit by a car, attacked in the street, falling unconscious in a building -- in which many people observe the person in need, and no one does anything about it.
Sociologists and psychologists have long studied what is known as bystander behavior. They say people are often unsure how to react to such events because they have difficulty processing what they are seeing. Witnesses to tragedy, especially when events are uncertain, often look around first.

If no one else is moving, individuals have a tendency to mimic the unmoving crowd. Although we might think otherwise, most of us would not have behaved much differently from the people we see in these recent videos, experts say. Deep inside, we are herd animals, conformists.....

"The larger question about the culture of indifference has a lot to do with bystander behavior," says H. Wesley Perkins, a professor of sociology at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, in Geneva, N.Y. "The bystander phenomenon is generated by the perception that other people are not doing anything about it, therefore I shouldn't either."

After the event is over and comes to greater public light, "people think everybody is mean and cruel-hearted and doesn't care," Perkins says. "But much of the bystander phenomenon happens because people are looking on and thinking, if they don't see someone else coming to the person's aid, then the person must not be in trouble."
Comment: Developing nations often fail to progress because of corruption, bad policies created by incompetent officials, civil war, war between states, etc. These are all problems that people stand by and allow to continue. Perhaps is we were to reduce bystander behavior, people would step in an solve development problems.

How do we train people to overcome their herd instinct so that they will step forward? Perhaps this is an especially important challenge for educators and education systems! The media can do their part as well, providing communications in a variety of form that show heros in practice, and make clear that they are "everyman".
JAD

Bush administration strikes again on family planning

Source: "Abortion Proposal Sets Condition on Aid," ROBERT PEAR, The New York Times, July 15, 2008.

Excerpts:
The Bush administration wants to require all recipients of aid under federal health programs to certify that they will not refuse to hire nurses and other providers who object to abortion and even certain types of birth control.

Under the draft of a proposed rule, hospitals, clinics, researchers and medical schools would have to sign “written certifications” as a prerequisite to getting money under any program run by the Department of Health and Human Services.

Such certification would also be required of state and local governments, forbidden to discriminate, in areas like grant-making, against hospitals and other institutions that have policies against providing abortion......

The proposal defines abortion as follows: “any of the various procedures — including the prescription, dispensing and administration of any drug or the performance of any procedure or any other action — that results in the termination of the life of a human being in utero between conception and natural birth, whether before or after implantation.”

Mary Jane Gallagher, president of the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association, which represents providers, said, “The proposed definition of abortion is so broad that it would cover many types of birth control, including oral contraceptives and emergency contraception.”
Comment: Arghh!!!! JAD

JibJab is back with a Campaign Special

Check it out:

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Republicans and Information for the Public

The State Department Secretariat for the U.S. National Commission for UNESCO (headed by political appointees), a Congressionally mandated oversight body, has not yet published the minutes of the NatCom meeting held May 19th and 20th. The U.S. Permanent Delegation to UNESCO (headed by a political appointee) has just published a very brief report on the meeting. That report fails to note that most Commissioners didn't bother to attend the annual meeting, but does include the speech made by the Ambassador at the meeting. That speech is silent about what UNESCO accomplished since the last meeting of the NatCom and how those accomplishments related to U.S. foreign policy objectives. The report on the meeting focuses primarily on the side events held in conjunction, which may well have diverted Commissioners' attention from the work of UNESCO and of the U.S. State Department officials relating to UNESCO, which it is to supervise.

UNESCO is an important organization in terms of this nation's long term quest for peace and security, the worldwide promotion of democratic values and institutions, and promotion of understanding of the our world and how to protect the environment. It is important that the State Department manage our interests with UNESCO well, and the Congressionally chartered oversight body should be provided detailed information necessary for it to do its job. Failing to inform the NatCom fully during its infrequent meetings, and not publishing the minutes of those meetings promptly fails to serve the public.

Two stories in today's Washington Post also talk about Republican roles in providing information for the public and its representatives.

"Let the Games Begin!" Dana Milbank, The Washington Post, July 16, 2008.
Dana Milbank describes the paliamentary tactics used by Republicans yesterday to block testimony during the Doug Feith hearings yesterday, and to give time to Feith to figure out how to answer probing questions from the Democrats.


"Former Lobbyist Is Charged With Trying To Destroy Evidence," by Del Quentin Wilber, The Washington Post, July 16, 2008.
"A former lobbyist and close friend of former congressman Curt Weldon was charged yesterday with trying to destroy potential evidence in the federal investigation of the Pennsylvania Republican.

"The lobbyist, Cecilia M. Grimes, is accused of throwing away documents sought by FBI agents as part of their probe into Weldon's ties to lobbying and consulting firms. She is the second person to be charged in the investigation."

Doug Feith's Testimony

I saw part of Douglas Feith's testimony before a Congressional Committee relating to torture in the Department of Defense. (Remember, Feith is a former political appointee in the Department of Defense who is accused of some of the worst mistakes in the build up to the Iraq war, and who -- in spite of his obvious political and bureaucratically successful career -- is thought to have been characterized by Tommy Frank as "the stupidest fucking guy on the planet".)

He was questioned as to who had responsibility for the torture that occurred in Iraq. He missed the obvious answer that everyone is responsible. The people who actually tortured prisoners are responsible: even if they were ordered to do so, both military justice and normal morality require people not to obey such unlawful orders.

At each higher level of the chain of command, there is responsibility. The nature of that responsibility depends on the circumstances. Anyone who ordered torture is directly and fundamentally culpable. Anyone who issued imprecise orders that were understood as requiring torture is culpable, as would anyone who issued orders that set up the conditions which would lead reasonable people to think torture was acceptable or required of them. Moreover, everyone in the chain of command bears some blame for torture that conducted by their subordinates, no matter how distant the torturer in the chain of command.

Doug Feith, perhaps understandably, seemed to be trying to defend his President and his boss the Secretary of Defense, but our system will work better if superiors accept responsibility whenever misconduct occurs on the part of their subordinates. At the very least, the leaders of our government failed to set up adequate safeguards to prevent torture. At worst.....

Rating Teachers via Student Testing

I agree with Michelle Rhee, Chancellor of the Public Schools of the District of Columbia, that ideally teachers should be judged on the progress made by their students, rather than "input" or "process" indicators that are only suggestive of how well they might teach.

I also like the "value added" measurement approach, which judges teachers against the progress made by students in their care rather than the cumulative achievement made during the students life. Even the value added approach should recognize that the challenges faced by different teachers may be very different. A English teacher with a class of dyslexic children would face a different challenge than one with a class of normal children or one with a class of language-gifted children. Indeed an English teacher in a boys school might face different challenges than one in a girls school. The use of improvements in student achievement, when used to judge teacher performance, should recognize such differences.

A more important problem is that the tests we use don't work very well. Think about it. There are magnet schools for science and for the arts. There are secondary schools that teach for the Internatioanl baccalaureate. These schools have different objectives for their students. The objectives are in theory shared by parents, teachers, and their communities. The teachers performance, if judged by student progress, should in these schools clearly be judged against the specific objectives for the students in their individual schools. That should be more possible for administrators of the individual school than for administrators of school districts, or state boards.

While people are in principle willing to define the objectives for such specialized schools, I doubt that it is politically feasible to fully recognize that society does not really want all schools to offer the same opportunity for intellectual excellence to their students. A lot of kids are going to wind up in jobs relatively lacking in prestige but necessary for the operation of our economy. The public is willing to pay the cost of preparing these kids adequately for those jobs, and preparing them adequately for their other roles in society (citizen, parent, driver, etc.), but is probably unwilling to prepare all students for the best paid and most prestigious jobs. Indeed, it might well be unwise and unjust to prepare students for roles that they will never have the chance to fulfill. However, if we are unwilling to be publicly explicit about the objectives of a school, it is hard to see how we can fairly judge teachers by their performance in helping their students reach those objectives.

Perhaps more importantly, we really want teachers and schools to help their students as individuals to develop their own individual potentials. Among my closest school friends were people who later became a minister, a scientist, a consulting psychologist, a teacher, a peace activist, as I became a bureaucrat and consultant in the field of international development. Other members of our class became actors, doctors, lawyers, accountants, and went into other fields. Our school and our teachers should be judged on how well they equipped us for those careers, and indeed on how well they prepared us to choose among and compete for the career opportunities available to us.

In my professional training in engineering school, there was an explicit effort to prepare students to act ethically as professional engineers. Clearly, if schools seek to produce graduates who will act ethically, then schools should be building character and not only teaching philosophy. Indeed, if a school wants to produce an engineer not only capable of producing excellent engineering designs but who does so consistently over a long period of time, it should both motivate that student towards professional excellence and toward a lifetime of self-study, learning, and professional development. These are but a couple of examples of objectives of schooling that are seldom if ever measured by tests. I think the problem is not that it is inherently impossible to measure character development or motivation, but that we simply do not seek their measurement in school systems.

So, while in principle it seems a good idea to evaluate students by measuring the accomplishments of students under their tutelage, since we don't use nor have tests that measure all of the aspects of student growth that are important to us, we must recognize that there are dangers in the approach. People will tend to produce more of that which we reward them to produce, and necessarily less of those services which are not rewarded. We have already produced far too many citizens who feel that their education ends with the end of schooling. I fear that too many teachers in too many schools fail to do enough in character building of their students.

I guess the point here is both that educational testing still needs to be improved, and that until we have adequate tests and testing we should use complementary indicators in evaluating and rewarding teachers.

Musing About Reading Other People

I have been reading biographies of J. Robert Oppenheimer and Toussaint L'Ouverture. The two very different biographies of two very different people led me to think about how hard it is to understand another person.

Both the scientist and the general worked with groups in their most important efforts. Thus I assume that there were in both cases social processes for the construction of knowledge and for decision making. Yet the biographers have little opportunity to understand, and less to communicate, the nature of the group processes.

In both cases, the biographers have had access to information from the subjects of their biography. Of course, what the person said or wrote must be considered in terms of the fallibility of memory, the possibility that the information is deliberately biased to be self serving, the possibility that the person was shading the reports for the benefit of the intended audience, as well as the general inaccuracy of what we say in reflecting the reality we understand.

In both biographies, the author tries to understand the subject through the things written and said about him by others. In both biographies one might suspect that there were several people by the same name, and the biographer was confounding reports about different people. Some of the informants were pro and some con. They in turn were providing information though the fog of memory, a posteriori interpretations of what they had observed, and the desire to look good themselves. In both cases, it may well be that those commenting on the subject of the biography were deliberately lying.

In both cases, the personal growth of the subject of the biography is amazing. Oppenheimer apparently had a breakdown as an unhappy young graduate student in England, away from the United States for the first time. In part, the stress he experienced was due to his inability to excel as an experimental physicist. He ended his career with a great reputation as an academic leader and as the conceptual leader of the huge effort to build an atom bomb, a sophisticate, loved and respected not only be a wide circle of friends and admirers, and recipient of major awards. L'Ouverture went from being an undersized and ugly slave to being the head of his nation, with a reputation as a brilliant strategist. In neither case does the biographer adequately explain the process of personal growth, and indeed that process may be inexplicable.

I believe that people make decisions balancing many objectives and constraints, in processes that combine the analytic and the unconscious. A biographer tends to have to attribute the process to an analytic process based on a subset of the probable motives. Indeed, I assume that people may act often with little analysis based on partial understanding of the circumstances.

And of course, the biographer is himself presenting not "just the facts", but a selection of the information he has obtained filtered through the conclusions he has reached about the character of his subject and the forces that formed that character.

It makes me wonder how well I understand the people I know. If it is so hard to understand the subject of a biography after hours of contemplation, aided by the best efforts of a respected biographer, how much more difficult is it to understand someone based on the interactions in day to day life.

Monday, July 14, 2008

International Collaborations in Behavioral and Social Sciences


International Collaborations in Behavioral and Social Sciences


Based on the outcomes of a workshop convened by the U.S. National Committee for Psychological Science and informed by a survey of social scientists who have led cross-national projects, this National Science Foundation-funded report addresses the multiple benefits of research extending across national boundaries and describes factors common among successful collaborations. Several dimensions of collaborative processes, such as research planning, methodological issues, organizational concerns, varied training approaches, and funding needs receive critical attention to this report.


Download report PDF

Sunday, July 13, 2008

"Connecting researchers boosts collective intelligence"

Elsevier's Jay Katzen explains how new research 2.0 tools are helping researchers in Research Information: June / July 2008.

Excerpt:
The increased availability of electronic scientific literature is resulting in a ‘data smog’. Scientists now read 25 per cent more articles from almost twice as many journals than they did six years ago, according to research by Carol Tenopir of the University of Tennessee, USA.

"Promises, Promises: How reliably aid is given can be even more important than how much is given"

The Economist reports that
Memories of the pledge made by G8 leaders there to double annual aid to Africa by 2010 also seem to have faded with time. According to the OECD, on current spending trends annual aid will fall $14 billion short of the $50 billion African target—not a statistic to savour as today’s G8 leaders tucked into their eight-course banquet on the Japanese island of Hokkaido on July 7th. Once again, they vowed to honour their aid commitments to Africa, but they are not legally binding nor are they easy to pin down. As usual in the aid business, making promises is a lot easier than sticking to them.
The article further suggests that when developing nations can not depend on the promised foreign assistance, it is less useful; depending on funds that do not arrive can be very disruuptive.

How free is the American Press?

O wad some Power the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae monie a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion:
Robbie Burns

Reporters Without Borders ranks the United States 48th of 169 countries in its most recent Worldwide Press Freedom Index (2008). That ranking is better than Togo, but not as good as Nicaragua!

Congress Communicating via the Internet

Source: "In House, Tweets Fly Over Web Plan," by MICHAEL FALCONE, The New York Times, July 13, 2008.

The NYT has a story of bickering among members of Congress about the Congressional rules for the use of the Internet. I find convincing the comment attributed to the Speaker:
Noting her own technological bona fides (“I have a blog, use YouTube, Flickr, Facebook, Digg, and other new media to communicate with constituents”), Ms. Pelosi said that the Democrats’ proposal would relax rules that prohibit members from posting on sites other than the House.gov domain.
Of course the Congress should take advantage of advances in technology to improve communication between members and their constituents. Ideally, the disintermediation of that communication should improve our democracy. The easier it is for constituents to make their views known to their representatives, the more likely that those views will be represented. The better the representatives can communicate with their constituents, the more those constituents will benefit from the information available to the Congress (members and their staffs). The free communication possible with the Internet should make politics less dependent on sources of finance for communication, and should even the playing field between those who command financial resources and those who don't.

Still, I would appreciate thoughtful consideration of appropriate regulation of Internet mediated communication in politics by our legislators. There is always a possibility that a powerful information and communication technology will be misappropriated by those with the power to do so.

Let us watch the legislative and regulatory process to make sure that it improves rather than detracts from our democratic processes!

A thought about trends in human rights

The movement to end the slave trade began in England in the late 18th century, and slavery was outlawed in the French Revolution at the very end of that century and in the American Civil War in the mid 19th century. (Yet there remains an important problem in human trafficking and involuntary servitude in the world today).

Decolonization swept away the colonial empires in the 20th century. How many now believe, as many Europeans once believed, that Africans and Asians were unable to govern themselves well and need European overlords? (Still, state power is exercised to exploit the peoples of the former colonies.)

The Civil Rights movement in the U.S. in the mid 20th century continued the process of enfranchising the blacks (Latinos and native Americans) that had been started in the 19th century. (Still, the nation is plagued by racial and ethnic prejudice.)

From Women's suffrage to women's rights, the 20th century saw a major improvement in gender equality. (Still, there are lots of glass ceilings against which upwardly mobile women are embedded.)

Genocide peaked during the Nazi era, and the Stalinist Soviet Union forced mass migrations based on ethnic prejudice. There are now international sanctions institutionalized against such practices. (Still, episodes of genocide continue to occur albeit on a lesser scale, and "ethnic cleansing" continues to describe a process which occurs not only in Iraq.)

I hope that this year, which marks the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, might simply be a point on the trajectory towards respect for diversity and universal recognition and guarantee of human rights. Still, there is a fear that it might mark a cusp in the trend. After all, the Bush administration has objected to habius corpus, has said that it does not recognize Constitutional limits on bugging people and gotten Congress to go along with some further limitations on privacy, has exercised federal power to limit the right to die, and has even allowed torture and estraordinary rendition to places where its prisoners would be tortured.

Rant: Where has democracy gone

Once the people we sent to Congress seemed to want to "do good", and to promote their political philosophy in legislation. Now it seems that politicians seek to stay in office and to assure the power of their own parties as ends in themselves.

Getting elected costs a lot these days. The media delivers votes, and buying media time costs money. Campaigns last interminably, so media coverage is required for a very long time. We do not put public-interest limits and demands on the media, nor do we provide public funds adequate to allow candidates to compete with those who draw on political contributions.

Moneyed interests find it cost-effective to donate money to candidates in order to foster their own financial (and other interests).

I don't see many politicians getting elected who do not manage to surround themselves with enough donors to raise a lot of money to use the media effectively to influence voters. Politicians can do this more effectively if they are in a majority party. The longer a politician is in office, the more power he/she acquires in the seniority based Congressional power systems. Thus the longer a politician is in office, the more power has been accumulated, the more influence the politician can exercise on the part of his/her supporters.

The country is split between red and blue states. State legislatures controlled by one party gerrymander the electoral districts to favor that party. Very few sitting federal legislators are beaten in the primary elections, and very few seats go to the other party in final elections.

The candidate who seeks election and power as ends in themselves seems to have an advantage over the candidate who will not broker influence for power, or the candidate who puts ideology before electability.

Is American democracy broken? If not, how long can it resist the current trends? If so, can it be repaired?

Conservatism: Different Ideas Linked with Common Word

There seem to be a number of different ideologies that are commonly lumped under the term "conservativism" in the United States.
  • Constitutional conservatism, which I think of as a concern that the Courts not substitute their opinion for the legislative mandate, that the executive branch does not ignore the Constitutional separation of powers, that the legislature not legislate beyond Constitutionally authorized limits (and I suppose that the Constitution not be amended lightly). This holds that the rights not given specifically to the federal government by the Constitution be reserved to the states and people.
  • Fiscal conservatism, looking for a balanced government budgets, restrained growth of the money supply, constrained inflation, an avoidance of excessive government debt.
  • Social conservatism, which seems to be a focus on traditional social values, especially those of the group from which the social conservative comes (notably for the religious right).
  • Business conservatism, which I guess has changed over time, from a focus on enabling small businesses to one in support of the interests of large firms.
  • Note also the relationship between "Conservatism" and "Conservationism", and I suppose an linkage going back to Teddy Roosevelt Republicans in which the conservative party sought to protect the environment -- a linkage that seems to be broken in the modern Republican party.
My point is that important differences can be hidden behind a common word. Lots of people who would support Constitutional conservatism might object to Christian Conservative Soclal Conservatism. So too, lots of social liberals might object to liberal interpretation of the Constitution. Let us hope that people not vote for candidates with diametrically opposed views to their own due to misunderstanding of labels.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

State of the World's Population 2007

The Flagship report of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) has just been published on the occasion of World Population Day, 2008.

From the summary:

"In 2008, the world reaches an invisible but momentous milestone: For the first time in history, more than half its human population, 3.3 billion people, will be living in urban areas. By 2030, this is expected to swell to almost 5 billion. Many of the new urbanites will be poor. Their future, the future of cities in developing countries, the future of humanity itself, all depend very much on decisions made now in preparation for this growth.

"While the world’s urban population grew very rapidly (from 220 million to 2.8 billion) over the 20th century, the next few decades will see an unprecedented scale of urban growth in the developing world. This will be particularly notable in Africa and Asia where the urban population will double between 2000 and 2030: That is, the accumulated urban growth of these two regions during the whole span of history will be duplicated in a single generation. By 2030, the towns and cities of the developing world will make up 81 per cent of urban humanity."

Chess Programs as Models of War Planning

Chess has been seen as a game based on war, and chess programs have been used for decades to demonstrate the power of computers and "artificial intelligence".

Each side has sixteen pieces and each has a very limited number of discrete moves at any time. Say a player has 30 possible moves at each turn. Then (order of magnitude) a move and response involves some 900 possibilities. A game may last 30, 40 or even more moves. Thinking five moves ahead would then involve considering specific possibilities out of a total of about 10,000,000,000,000. For even the fastest computers, complete enumeration is not possible.

As actually played, the game is still more complex. Each player has only a limited amount of time for the game, and is thus required to allocate time effectively so that more time is available to think about more difficult or complex move combinations.

Note especially that one sometimes sees chess masters playing a large number of games simultaneously, and indeed winning the large majority against a crowd of strong players. In that role, the master must allocate attention among many games so as not to keep each other opponent from waiting too long between moves.

Computer programs that successfully challenge human players not only have stored opening gambits of standard moves and their responses, but also have heuristic rules for generating moves to be considered, and heuristic rules for evaluating positions. The programs modify the weight attached to these rules according to the stage of the game.

Thus, although games always end in wins, losses or ties for each player, the computer programs only really focus on attaining winning positions or avoiding losing positions in the very end of their analysis. Most of the time the computer programs are involved in balancing large numbers of objectives, developing moves that advance one or more of those objectives, and evaluating likely positions against that array of changing objectives.

Like chess, opponents in wars act independently, and one's opponent seeks moves that counter one's intentions. Unlike chess, when one decides on a move, the result is not deterministically but only statistically related to ones decisions. Things seldom go just as planned. Moreover, the fog of war keeps one from always knowing immediately the response of the opponent to one's move. Thus, like chess playing programs, it seems to me that strategy and tactics in war must deal with large numbers of objectives, with the balance among them changing continually. Unlike chess, there are many more alternatives possible for each protagonist, often more than two protagonists, and much more uncertainty between decision and result.

Like a chess master playing many simultaneous games of chess, a national war leader is involved not only in one conflict, but in many theaters simultaneously. These include domestic policy, political policy, and many arenas of foreign policy. The leader's attention must be distributed among the plans for all of these in order to make timely decisions in each. Unlike the chess master, the many theaters of action are all interrelated. Thus failure in war will affect domestic policy, politics, and foreign policy in other arenas.

Iraq policy is now very complex. There are many factions within Iraq, and many external forces supporting one or another of the Iraqi factions. The strategy and tactics in the war in Iraq are themselves complex, shrouded in uncertainty, and influenced by inventive opponents. But they are vastly complicated by the overall problems in the Gulf, in the Middle East, in international economic policy, in the effort to contain and end international terrorism, and in the need to work on global systems problems such as global warming, not to mention domestic U.S. policy.

So is the goal in Iraq oil, or stability in the Gulf, or stability in Central Asia, or amelioration of the treats to Israel and the Middle East, or democracy, or combating international terrorism, or still other objectives? Tha answer is, I hope, "yes".

There is a saying. "When you want to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is to stop digging." True, but I would note that when you have been digging a hole deeper and deeper for years, it may not be all that simple to get out once you have "stopped digging". When you are deep enough, you have to worry about the walls caving in on you as you try to escape. If you don't want to be in a hole, it is probably best not to start digging in the first place!

Friday, July 11, 2008

Net Neutrality One, Comcast zero

Source: "An Imminent Victory for ‘Net Neutrality’ Advocates," by Vindu Goel, The New York Times, July 11, 2008.

I quote:
When Comcast admitted last fall that it was blocking — or slowing down, as the company preferred to call it — certain file transfers by customers, a lot of people complained that the company was unfairly discriminating against heavy Internet users.

Now it seems that the Federal Communications Commission is poised to agree.

The Associated Press reported late Thursday that the F.C.C.’s chairman, Kevin J. Martin, has concluded that Comcast improperly blocked some file transfers. Mr. Martin told the A.P. he would recommend that the commission punish Comcast, and order it to stop the blocking, tell the commission how and how often it blocked file transfers and disclose to consumers its future plans for managing its network. (UPDATE: At a news conference Friday, Mr. Martin said he would seek no fine, but only a change in Comcast’s practices.)

How should we measure teacher performance?

Charlie Rose asked a panel of award winning teachers how to measure teacher performance, adding the question of whether it should be based on student tests. Let me free associate on the question.

I think one of the definitions of "a professional" is someone who does a difficult intellectual task with little supervision, and thus is qualified by professional training and licensing to do so. I think teachers are in that sense professionals, and that it is very hard to measure their performance.

There are objective measures of professional performance, but peer review tends to play and important role in some fields.

The basic law of measurement is not to measure anything if you are not going to use the information obtained. It costs money to measure something, and if you don't have any way to use the information, that money is wasted.

A corollary is that you should not measure anything that you can not measure sufficiently accurately to be useful.

Another corollary is that, since testing is often destructive, you should not measure anything that you are likely to make worse by the measurement and/or the use of the results.

It is in theory better to measure the impact of the teacher than to measure "output variables" such as facts or analytic techniques mastered by students or student and parent satisfaction with the teacher. It is in theory better to measure those outputs rather than "input variables" such as the teachers training and use of supplies and aids.

On the other hand, if you reward people for a certain kind of performance, then you are likely to encourage more of that kind of performance. If you measure the facts learned by students and use that as the only basis for evaluation of teachers, don't be surprised if you find teachers teaching more to increase the ability of students to respond to factual questions. If you want student creativity and analytic skills to be encouraged, then evaluate teachers accordingly.

Figuring out what you want schools to do is not easy. Indeed, different stakeholders have different(implicit) desires for and expectations of teacher performance. It is not clear that what will most please parents will most please future employers or the students themselves.

When different stakeholders have different objectives, it is sometimes better not to provide full information on how well all of them are being fulfilled. Sometimes you can better get consensus on means if you are not too specific on ends and their achievement.

There is the story of the system of county fairs in the United States that gave prizes to farmers every year. The corn prizes were for the most beautiful ears of corn. After a decade or two it was discovered that farmers were growing more and more beautiful ears of corn, but that yields were going down. Since cattle gain more weight if they eat more corn, not if they eat more beautiful corn, the system was profoundly dysfunctional. Measuring the wrong thing and using the information effectively to maximize what you measure may be profoundly dysfunctional.

Have you noticed that student evaluations of faculty performance sponsored by universities focus on indicators most related to the teacher's ability to attract fee's paying students to his/her classes?

Bottom line: measure teacher performance very carefully. Schools have been working for a long time with not very good measures of teacher performance. Unintended consequences of measurement processes are not uncommon. You would not want to make schooling worse by measuring performance more.

"Science Professionals: Master's Education for a Competitive World"



Read this FREE online!
Full Book | PDF Summary
This is a new book by a distinguished committee headed by Rita Colwell.

It seems to recognize that Master's degrees in the sciences have been important in American society, and those traditional master's degrees will continue to be important. It recommends, however, that in a changing world American competitiveness will be enhanced by graduates of new, innovative science master's degrees, when they are well conceived and respond to real needs of students and their future employers.

The Bush administration

I have tried to note in this blogs occasions in which evidence has been provided of failures of the Bush administration to deal well with scientific information. If you click on the tags for "Bush administration" and/or "Science Policy" below you will find a long and sad history.

Remember back in 2005 when President Bush indicated that he thought "the theory of intelligent design should be taught with evolution in the nation's public schools." This is consistent in that Nicholas Kristof reports:
Characteristically, he does not believe in evolution--he says the jury is still out--but he does not actively disbelieve in it either; as a friend puts it, "he doesn't really care about that kind of thing."

Why Don't We Read More About Haiti


Haiti is undergoing a political crisis. The President this week has nominated a third person for Prime Minister, an office that has been vacant since April.

Haiti is identified as a failed state by Foreign Policy magazine. It is occupied by a U.N. Peace Building force headed by Brazilians, which appears to be controversial. While it has been occupied by foreign troops for most of the time since 1995, it is not clear that the government will be able to maintain order without outside force in the near future.

The poorest nation in the hemisphere, most of its people are suffering still more from the high international prices of food and fuel. Indeed demonstrations in April triggered by economic problems resulted in the departure of the last Prime Minister.

Charges fly that a corrupt government not only fails to promote economic growth but is so inefficient that food aid rots in the ports. Nearly nine million people over-stretch the carrying capacity of Haiti's already environmentally degraded lands. Tourism has not recovered to previous levels, and few want to invest in manufacturing in Haiti.

The United States bears a considerable responsibility for the current situation of Haiti. Haiti is very close to our border, completely dependent on the U.S. economy, and has sent many Haitians to live here. The U.S. invaded Haiti early in the 20th century to assure an American bank could collect debts from a failed Haitian enterprise, and occupied the country setting up a military that became dictatorial. The United States certainly has some responsibility for the Duvalier regime and led the U.N. force that deposed Aristide in the 1990's and established an alternative regime.

This is a situation which requires our attention, if only to put pressure on our Congress to act responsibly. Therefore it is a situation which requires coverage by the media in the United States. How long is it since you read a story about Haiti, or saw it discussed in television news?

Bush administration fails on air pollution

According to the Washington Post, the EPA will not act on emissions this year. In spite of the public demand and the order of the Supreme Court, the Bush administration has decided not to take any new steps to regulate greenhouse gas emissions before the president leaves office. Instead the EPA will seek added comments on possible regulation for several more months.
To defer compliance with the Supreme Court's demand, the White House has walked a tortured policy path, editing its officials' congressional testimony, refusing to read documents prepared by career employees and approved by top appointees, requesting changes in computer models to lower estimates of the benefits of curbing carbon dioxide, and pushing narrowly drafted legislation on fuel-economy standards that officials said was meant to sap public interest in wider regulatory action.

The decision to solicit further comment overrides the EPA's written recommendation from December. Officials said a few senior White House officials were unwilling to allow the EPA to state officially that global warming harms human welfare. Doing so would legally trigger sweeping regulatory requirements under the 45-year-old Clean Air Act, one of the pillars of U.S. environmental protection, and would cost utilities, automakers and others billions of dollars while also bringing economic benefits, EPA's analyses found.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Still More Thoughts Occassioned by Oppie!

The physicists of Oppenheimer's time provided advice to government on whether an atomic weapons could be developed and what its characteristics would be if developed. This was true both for nuclear weapons and for thermonuclear weapons. There was no other possible source of knowledge to provide that advice.

Oppenheimer had exceptionally wide interests. He had lived and traveled abroad and spoke several foreign languages. He had become actively involved with the plight of the Jews in Nazi Germany, of the loyalists in the Spanish Civil War, in the plight of the poor during the Depression, and of course in the fight against Fascism of World War II. He was cosmopolitan, brilliant, and could be a charming advocate for the positions in which he believed.

Having said all that, he must surely have been less expert about foreign policy that the foreign policy professionals such as those who led the Department of State. Similarly, he must have been less expert about military affairs than the best military leaders, or about foreign cultures than the social scientists who studied those cultures (for example, Ruth Benedict about Japanese culture).

Oppenheimer was not diffident in expressing his views not only about what weapons were possible, but also about whether they should be developed and if developed how they should be used. One must assume that political, diplomatic and military leaders of the time faced similar decisions as to how forcefully to express their opinions, and faced similar issues of the domains of their relative expertise and the degree of force of diffidence with which to express their opinions on issues within or outside their areas of special expertise.

How difficult is it then to properly organize the advice for the President? How does the White House staff assure that he receives scientific, diplomatic, military, cultural, and the other kinds of advice he should receive. A scientist might be right about the non-scientific issues, and presumably has both the need and right to express wider views; so too do experts in other fields have opinions about scientific issues.

Edward Teller apparently felt that Oppenheimer's views on the thermonuclear weapons were so defective that they should not be heard at all within the halls of government. It seems to me that those views were worth considering, and that Teller's approach that would stifle debate would be often counterproductive.

How then can the White House staff coordinate the advice from all the relevant sources, and is it desirable (or even possible) to indicate for the President the degree to which each aspect of the advice from each advisor is warranted by that advisor's relative expertise relevant to that piece of advice.

Clearly that is a wildly challenging task. Perhaps not surprisingly the domestic, economic and security councils have been criticizes as often not having done it well. Of course, if a President doesn't want, will not take, or does not understand advice, the problem becomes worse.

More About Oppenheimer

J. Robert Oppenheimer was present at the creation of the quantum mechanics paradigm in physics. Together with relativity, the new quantum theory radically changed the way we understand the universe. The scientific revolution in physics lead that field to become the queen of the sciences in the popular imagination, and to the period of unequally prestige for physicists. Oppenheimer created the most important center for theoretical physics training in the United States at Berkeley, which helped the United States become the world leader in the field, rather than the backwater he found as a student. He then lead the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, which was the most prestigious scientific institution in the United States.

He headed the team that conceptualized how the atom bomb was to be created, which in turn spun off the development of the hydrogen bomb. In that role he was in a central position in the program that transformed popular and political opinion of the importance of science, since the physicists and engineers who collaborated on the bombs transformed theoretical physics into applications of huge visible impact in a extremely short period of time.

He then lead in the debate about how atomic energy should be developed, and in the development of the scientific advisory role to government.

Thus he was involved at the creation of an important scientific paradigm. He was involved at the creation of a new paradigm in the way the public thought of science. He was involved in the creation of a new paradigm in the way in which scientific knowledge systems interacted with political knowledge systems in the United States(and thus worldwide). This trajectory makes Oppenheimer a fascinating vehicle for the consideration of revolutionary change in knowledge systems.

It is interesting to think of his personal transformation. Apparently he was in a fairly desperate mental state as a young foreign student at Cambridge, studying experimental physics for which he had little aptitude. He ended his career as a charismatic leader, loved by many, and widely respected for his charm and erudition. One wonders whether today's society is less forgiving, and if so how many potential Oppenheimers are being withered by social condemnation in their youths.

Bushies Managing the Media

Source: "Putting Her Foot Down and Getting the Boot," by Dana Milbank, The Washington Post, July 10, 2008.

Apparently Gina Grey (right), an Iraq vet, was fired from her job as public relations director at the nation's most important military cemetery because she wanted the press who were allowed by family members to cover military funerals to he allowed closer to the funerals. It seems that under the Bush administration the rules for Arlington cemetery were changed to reduce access, and cemetery officials are calling families encouraging them to disallow press coverage.
"Had I not put my foot down, had I just gone along with it and not said regulations were being violated, I'm sure I'd still be there," said the jobless Gray, who, over lunch yesterday in Crystal City, recounted what she is certain is her retaliatory dismissal.
Remember how the Bush administration in the past censored the photos of the coffins of the dead soldiers being returned from Iraq and Afghanistan.

We depend on the media to provide the information we need in our democracy to help us make the right decisions as citizens and voters. Keeping the press from doing their work, or from doing it well, is a real disservice to democracy. We need to be reminded, and reminded often, of how many Americans are dying and how many are being wounded and injured in Iraq.

Indeed, we need to be reminded of how many Iraqis (and Afghanis) are being killed, injured, wounded, and having their lives disrupted and ruined by the American occupation of their country. I find that Doonsbury is the site that does this best, which is even more a complaint about mainstream media than a compliment to Gary Trudeau.

One wonders what kind of democracy President Bush thought the United States would promote in the Middle East? Of course, someone who thinks that they can promote democracy by invasion and punting the occupation......

I love the web!

My last posting was about Madison Smartt Bell's Toussaint Louverture. That led me to his more recent book, Lavoisier in the Year One: The Birth of a New Science in an Age of Revolution. I got interested in Lavoisier's wife, Marie-Anne Pierrette, and in turn to her suitor (after Lavoisier was executed in the French Revolution), Pierre Samuel Du Pont and second husband Benjamin Thompson Count Rumford. That took me to the invention of the restaurant in post revolutionary France, and invention made possible by Rumford's stove!

Rumford was especially interesting -- an American-born savant who was as innovative and scientifically important as Benjamin Franklin, and who rose to very high office in Bavaria and was knighted by the British, the inventor of the wax candle, Rumford fireplace, double boiler, and pressure cooker. Since he first spied for the British and then served as a British officer against the revolutionaries, Rumford seems to be neglected by American historians.

Madame Lavoisier too was fascinating. She was not only beautiful, but an artist trained by David, and herself a competent chemist who assisted her husband and managed his scientific legacy, but a linguist who did (and published) French translations of important English scientific works.

Even Du Pont, the father of the founder of the American industrial empire, was interesting. He was a leading economist, friend of Jefferson, who immigrated to the United States, and who helped negotiate the Louisiana Purchase.

Hypertext linkages provide a great boon to those of us surfing the web to follow a track of this kind. Even more important are the search engines and sites like Amazon.com which make "the long tail" available on command. What intellectual riches are available now at one's figertips!

Haiti's Cultural Mashup

According to Wikipedia:

In technology, a mashup is a web application that combines data from more than one source into a single integrated tool; an example is the use of cartographic data from Google Maps to add location information to real-estate data, thereby creating a new and distinct web service that was not originally provided by either source.

Mashup originally referred to the practice in pop music (notably hip-hop) of producing a new song by mixing two or more existing pieces together.

I have been reading Toussaint Louverture by Madison Smartt Bell, which is an account of Haiti in the time of the French Revolution and its independence told from the point of view of one of the main protagonists of the Haitian drama.

Haitian society at the time included Creoles (born in Haiti) and immigrants (most of whom of course were Africans imported as slaves). There were whites (divided between the planters and the "petit blancs"), coloreds (or mulattoes), and blacks. Of the former slaves, there were those who were freed prior to the revolutionary period, those who were freed by the revolution, and maroons who were communities formed by run-away slaves. The political situation included French administrators sent by Paris and when France was at war with England and Spain, British and Spanish invading forces (not to mention Irish troops in the French army). I assume that the African-born were from a number of West African cultures.

It was a time of rapid cultural change. The French Revolution was changing not only political institutions and the aristocracy-commoner divisions of society, but many other aspects of French culture. The African-born were aculturating to Haitian cultures from their original African cultures. Haiti itself had left the slavery based plantation culture and was evolving new cultural institutions.

The military situation was incredibly complex with royalist and revolutionary French, British and Spanish forces, with differing social compositions of foot-soldiers and officers, in different geographic regions of the country, and with constantly shifting loyalties as bands shifted allegiance from one cause to another, from one leader to another.

We know that Haitian Creole is a "mashup" of French and African languages and Haitian religion is a "mashup" of Voudou (based on Christianity and African animistic religions) and Catholicism. It should not be surprising that other Haitian institutions are also "mashups" of European and African institutions (although the realization surprised me).

Bell points out that Louverture was especially adept at navigating the troubled waters of Haitian transition society. He seems to have acted as a French colonial official, plantation patron, African tribal leader, quasi-religious leader, abolitionist, plantation owner and entrepreneur, and independence leader. He moved from role to role seamlessly, sometimes in on a single occasion drawing on several roles as the need arose.

Globalization is reaching into Asian, Latin American, and even African societies bringing rapid cultural changes in its wake. It may be useful to think about this experience of hyper-velocity change in Haitian history to sensitize us to the complexities of the process, and perhaps to draw lessons or at least inspiration from Louverture's magesterial dexterity in dealing with Haitian complexities of his time.

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Is life in the U.S. better than it was a century ago

I heard an old interview in which Bill Moyers asked Henry Steele Commager, the historian who lived through most of the 20th century, whether life was better in the United States at the end or at the beginning of the 20th century. It is an interesting question.

Commager pointed out that life was much better for some groups, such as African Americans, (I would also suspect that it is much better for the very rich now than even for the very rich then.) He questioned whether our modern commercial culture or our current political culture represented any advance.

Certainly life expectancy is longer now, and many of the diseases of 100 years ago have been conquered in the United States. Certainly the average person has access to much more and better technology, including better automobiles, radio, television, computers and the Internet, air conditioning, central heating, etc. etc. Per capita income in real terms is much higher now than it was then.

On the other hand, for many groups the family is less strong, as are community ties. Is it better to sit and watch television or to make one's own entertainment?

All in all, a very interesting question.

The White House Strikes Again


The Washington Post reports (July 9, 2008):
Members of Vice President Cheney's staff censored congressional testimony by a top federal official about health threats posed by global warming, a former Environmental Protection Agency official said yesterday.

In a letter to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), former EPA deputy associate administrator Jason K. Burnett said an official from Cheney's office ordered last October that six pages be edited out of the testimony of Julie L. Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Gerberding had planned to say that the "CDC considers climate change a serious public health concern."
Comment: The Center for Disease Control is a prototypical governmental institution, protecting public health in ways that are only possible to the government. Dr. Gerberding is one of the most respected and competent public health officials in the world, with deep training matured by decades of public service. How dare the people in the White House edit her testimony to Congress! JAD

The March of Democracy

This map gives us a visual view of democracy's march across history from the first ancient republics to the rise of self-governing nations: 4,000 years in 90 seconds...!

Source: Maps of War

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Indirect Social Influence


Source: "SOCIOLOGY: Indirect Social Influence," by Jerker Denrel
Science 4 July 2008: Vol. 321. no. 5885, pp. 47 - 48.

If I understand this brief paper, it suggests that people may act rationally by following the example of a neighbor or friend if it seems positive, and continuing the search for a better option in that other's experience seems negative. I think that is likely. The author's suggest that this strategy might easily lead a researcher incorrectly to assume that the neighbor of friend is influencing a subject's judgment (e.g. by argument).

Peer Review for Journal Articles

Source: "Reviewing Peer Review," Bruce Alberts, Brooks Hanson and Katrina L. Kelner.
Science 4 July 2008: Vol. 321. no. 5885, p. 15.

This editorial point focuses on a crisis in institutionalized peer review. It recognizes that the system both helps journals select good articles and helps authors to improve their papers, but also that the huge volume of papers being submitted to the huge numbers of journals stresses both the patience of reviewers and the editorial staff of the journals.

Another issue is the increasing frequency of complex papers produced by multidisciplinary teams which in principle require multidisciplinary teams of reviewers.

Authors frequently submit a paper sequentially to a number of journals, seeking first to publish in more prestigious journals (which carry more weight with those handing out promotions and academic raises) and continuing until a journal finally is found to accept the paper. Multiple submissions involve multiple reviews, stressing the system. The authors suggest:
  • Efforts by the academic system to prepare graduate students and young researchers to function as reviewers,
  • Systems such as that of Faculty of 1000 that provides an alternative to ranking of journals that would provide information for the academic ranking of authors,
  • Systems, such as now exist with some organizations publishing several journals, in which reviews could be shared.
I wonder whether a system might be considered like that used for matching candidates with medical schools. Each paper could be submitted to a "market institution" with a list of the author's preferences for journals in which it would be published. The paper would then be reviewed by a panel selected by the "market institution". The reviewers might make suggestions to improve a paper, make recommendations as to whether a paper warranted publication (perhaps on a scale of value), and make recommendations as to which journal would be the best fit for the paper. Journals would then select the papers that they would publish, seeking to accommodate author preferences as well as to assure the quality and coherence of the portfolio of articles it publishes.

The authors conclude:
Finally, and perhaps most important, authors, reviewers, and journal editors should keep in mind the ultimate goal of scholarly scientific publishing to advance our understanding of the natural world. Competition among labs and personal striving for excellence are forces that can be harnessed to accelerate our progress. But in excess these factors can be impediments. The scientific community must collectively ensure that the peer review process continues to serve the loftier goals of our enterprise, which ultimately benefits us all.

From the 2008 National Conference for Media Reform

The following are from the 2008 National Conference for Media Reform.

Silvia Rivera Keynote Address


Bill Moyers addresses NCMR 2008

Lawrence Lessig at the NCMR

Incompetence of Chicanery


The Washington Post today reports:
With the 2010 Census less than two years away, independent demographers and congressional overseers are worried that the Census Bureau will not be prepared to accurately record the nation's racial and ethnic minorities, illegal immigrants and the poor -- groups that historically have been undercounted.
Apparently, under the direction of a chief who took office six months ago, the Bureau has decided to abandon hand held electronic data devices and go back to paper for the follow up on households that do not mail in their census forms. The change means that the Bureau also has to abandon a test of the procedures that was scheduled for this year.

The result will probably be an increase in the undercount of those who are difficult to count. The difficult to count tend to be relatively poor, including the homeless, recent immigrants, people living in crowded dwellings, etc.

Since the census is the basis for apportionment of legislative districts, the more that a group of people is under-counted, the more that group is disadvantaged politically by the re-apportionment that will follow the census.

It is no secret that in the recent past Republicans have sought to block changes in the Bureau's procedures that would make the counts more accurate. Notably, in the last census the Republican Congress blocked the Bureau from using statistical techniques that would correct the count by estimating the undercounts.

So the question is, is the current problem due to the incompetence of the Bureau under its Republican leadership, of is it do to deliberate malfeasance?

The changes will apparently add $2.2 to $3 billion to the $11.5 billion cost of the census. The article does not indicate how much the inaccuracy will cost the nation as decisions are made for the following decade based on information that is less accurate than it might be. Moreover, I don't think anyone knows how to estimate the dollar value of the loss of democracy due to the disenfranchisement of Americans in neighborhoods that are under counted.

In terms of the focus of this blog, the decennial census provides a critical source of information for our economy and our democracy. The word "statistics" comes from the idea of the data needed by the state. A political party that seeks to undermine the accuracy of our fundamental information for political reasons is dispicable!

Monday, July 07, 2008

Who were the greatest presidents?

I heard Joseph Ellis the other day considering who were the greatest American presidents. He chose Washington after saying that most historians agreed that Washington, Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt were the three greatest presidents.

Those three faced the greatest challenges -- the creation of the office (and of course leading the troops in the Revolutionary War), the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II respectively. It is of course possible that the process of rising to such a challenge makes a man great.

It might be that historians distinguish between greatness in a man and greatness in a president. Were Washington, Lincoln and FDR really greater men than Jefferson, Grant, Wilson or Eisenhower, or did they simply face and survive greater challenges during their presidencies?

Somehow one would want to point to great men as role models, and in that sense one would wish to identify greatness with character and virtue. Indeed, might the greatest president not be the one who most avoided leading the nation into peril?

Stove Technology

Image source: The Bavarian kitchen

I was thinking about stoves.

It was Benjamin Thompson, Count Rumford, who got me to thinking about them. He is a fascinating character. A spy for the British, who went on to be knighted in England, lead the Bavarian army, introduce the potato to Bavaria, and marry the widow of Lavoisier, he was an important scientist. He was the man who successfully challenged the idea of a caloric fluid, clarifying that heat was a manifestation of the motion of particles within a material. He was also an inventor, having introduced the Rumford fireplace, wax candles, drip coffee makers, double boilers, and pressure cookers. He also apparently created enclosed stoves, including the first iron ranges.

Here is a description of Rumsford's stove:
From the point of view of cooking history, the most important of Rumford’s invention was the kitchen range, which he proposed as the remedy for the waste of fuel and singeing of chefs that resulted from cooking on blazing open hearths. A typical Rumford arrangement consisted of a brick range, enclosing and separating a series of fires, above each of which a pot or stew-pan fitted into a circular, iron-rimmed opening. The heat of each fire could be separately regulated by varying the draught through its ash-pit door and the smoke was carried away by flues leading through the brickwork to the main chimney. Any temporarily unwanted fire was capped with an earthen-ware cover and its draught almost cut off. In this way it could be kept alive, but burning hardly any fuel. The entire arrangement concentrated heat where it was needed, reduced fuel waste and made the chef’s work more bearable. simple as it seems, this invention, together with the baking oven, was mainly responsible for modern methods of cooking and baking.

This brief history of stoves suggests that the first European stove that completely enclosed the fire, thereby achieving greater energy efficiency as well as a less smoky kitchen, was introduced in 1735. However, such stoves were invented and introduced much earlier in Asia. (see the "raised kamado" stove from Japan on the left).

Still in many countries many people do not enclose fires to cook efficiently, and the appropriate technology movement has innovated with stoves much like those used in the past in Asia, Europe and America. Note, for example, the Justa stove introduced into Guatemala. (right)

What is patriotism?

Over the 4th of July weekend I saw published interviews with Obama and McCain on the meaning of "patriotism". According to Answers.com:
Love of and devotion to one's country.
I don't see how the candidates were ever going to beat that definition.

A better question might have been posed:
"What should an American do now to best express patriotism?"
I suppose the right answer for this country, with its legacy of individual liberty, is that each person should serve his country as he/she thinks best and most appropriate, in accordance with his/her possibilities.

Incidentally, did you know that more colonists served in the forces loyal to the English king than in the revolutionary forces during the revolutionary war, and that the victory of the rebels was more due to the French and to 3,000 soldiers who signed up for the rebel army for the duration of the war (many of whom were former slaves or new immigrants) than to the citizen soldiers of the colonies?

How Great is the Hubble

An HST color-enhanced image
of a remnant of a supernova.

PHOTO: NASA, ESA Hubble Heritage Team,
W. Blair - July 7, 2008

According to The Washington Post:
In a briefing at the Goddard Space Flight Center, scientists said that observations by the telescope have resulted in an average of 12 published discoveries a week for years, and that almost 4,400 principal and co-investigators have produced articles based on its data.

"This is surely the most productive telescope in history," said Charles Mattias "Matt" Mountain, director of the Space Telescope Science Institute on the Johns Hopkins University campus in Baltimore.

Suicide versus Terrorism

Shankar Vedantam has an article in today's Washington Post citing research on the link between gun ownership and suicide rates. It suggests that guns in the household increase suicide rates by 25 percent or more.
There were 32,637 suicides in the country in 2005, the latest year for which statistics are available. That year, the collective homicidal mayhem caused by domestic abusers, violent criminals, gang fights, drug wars, break-ins, shootouts with cops, accidental gun discharges and cold, premeditated murder produced 18,538 deaths......

Only a tiny fraction of the 400,000 suicide attempts that bring Americans into emergency rooms each year involve guns. But because guns are so lethal, 17,002 of all suicides in 2005 -- 52 percent -- involved people shooting themselves.
He writes "Even the risk of terrorism doesn't begin to come close to the risk of suicide." The terrorist event in the United States most available to memory killed some 3000 people on 9/11. That was seven years ago, leading to an assumed risk of death by terrorism here of something over 400 per year.

Why is it that the Bush administration has not declared a war on suicide rather than a war on terrorism?

Culture and Intelligence

Dov Henis left a long comment on a posting on a blog focusing on UNESCO's education and culture programs. In that posting he comments on the link between intelligence and culture. He got me to thinking.

I rather like the definition that "intelligence is that which is measured by intelligence tests". Many people have commented that tests of intelligence are culturally loaded, and that they tend to discriminate against people from less affluent strata of the society in which they are developed, since people growing up in those strata tend to be deprived of cultural experiences that are assumed common by those of upper strata (who devise intelligence tests and against whom those tests are "validated").

Intelligence tests are supposed to be predictive and as I recall are validated against school performance. One might assume a better validation would be the ability to create new knowledge, as measured for example by later publications in a scientific career. Of course, one does not want to wait for a generation for the data to validate a test, even if the test designed for one generation would be assumed valid for the next. But I suspect that that which is measured by common intelligence tests is little related to the ability to create new knowledge.

More fundamentally, if we assume intelligence is the ability to create good solutions to real problems, it seems likely to me that different cultures would have different kinds of intelligence. Does it not seem likely that the abilities that would lead to successful problem solving might be different in a hunting-gathering society, than in a rural agricultural society, than in an urban, white-collar setting?

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Temporal Prejudice

I have been reading Toussaint Louverture by Madison Smartt Bell. It, of course, deals with the racism of the time of its protagonist, in which Europeans found it very difficult to believe that an army of ex-slaves, most of whom were born in Africa, lead by black men, could successfully challenge armies of Europeans.

I find I have a prejudice, of which I had not been aware, that people who have not benefited from modern educational systems would not be as capable as we beneficiaries. Thinking about it, it occurs to me that the leaders of the revolution that created the United States also had not received much formal education. Indeed, classical leaders such as Alexander and Caesar were what we would call "home schooled". Lincoln had very little formal schooling.

I should have been immune. I have read the materials by Douglas Hyde (the former President of Ireland) which pointed out that Blind Raftery, my ancestor from the early 1800's, had been very underestimated by the British in his own time, and was in fact quite knowledgeable about history and culture, as well as a master of the complex conventions of the Gaelic poetry tradition.

Many of the American revolutionary leaders were well read if not long schooled. Lincoln too must have been deeply steeped in great books, or he could not have written as well as he did. Thus, obviously tuition by a brilliant scholar or a lifetime of ambitious reading can educate a person well.

In the case of Blind Raftery, that education must have been accomplished by talking, and societies which had little access to books must often have had venues for discussion, even learned discussion, in which important ideas were considered and transmitted and people prepared for important leadership roles.

It also seems that when circumstances permit anyone to rise to leadership roles by ability, great leaders sometimes emerge from what our prejudice would see as unlikely places. Napoleon's rise from petty nobility in Corsica would not have been predictable by the French aristocracy, any more than Toussaint's rise from Haitian slavery. Indeed, the system for selection of leaders in the production of scientific knowledge, which is pretty egalitarian, sent some very interesting people to advisory posts in the aftermath of World War II.

Sometimes, of course, the hereditary aristocracy also produces a great leader, but my reading of history suggests that all too often that trajectory produces lackluster leaders.

Increasing Numbers of Educated People

Data source: "Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Education," IIASA.

This is a relatively conservative projection, assuming no improvements are made over time in the proportion of a young cohort that acquires different levels of education, while fertility, mortality, and migration trends follow the median demographic assumptions discussed in the paper.

Still, the projection suggests a great increase in the number of graduates of tertiary education in the world, as well as increases in numbers of high school graduates, matched by a decrease in the number of people with no education.

If you think about the increase in human capital (improved health is likely to combine with added education) and the increase in scientific and technological knowledge, as well as the improvements in information infrastructure, it is clear that the nature of global knowledge systems will change radically even in the next quarter century.

I think the Internet changes the way we think

My father had a great memory. In part, it was a gift of genetics, but in part it was the result of his training in Irish schools around the time of World War I. He suffered through years of memory training through rote learning and required memorizations. Of course, small town Ireland at the time was a information poor as well as poor in money. Radio was a new technology, not widely used, and people did not have the money to spend on newspapers and magazines. I suspect that while there were great maps, they were not widely available. Phones were few and far between, and I doubt that telephone directories were there for everyone to use whenever they wanted to look up something in the Yellow Pages. Probably the best way to get a piece of information one needed was to have learned it before it was needed, and simply to remember it.

My earlier ancestor, Blind Raftery, is supposed to have been the product of an 18th century hedge school. His was a time in which it was illegal to teach Catholic kids in Ireland to read and write, not to mention to teach them history and political philosophy. For the Irish poor of the time, memory was even more important than it would be for my father a century or more later. Of course, for Raftery, blinded as a child by smallpox, his memory was doubly important.

Indeed, Irish history was marked by "Daly schools", in which a class of people who were the professional rememberers of their society were trained. The graduates of these schools would attend important meetings and (literally) memorialize their proceedings in poems. The students lived in darkened rooms for years, training their memories by prodigious feats of memory. (The name "Daly" is according to some derived from the Irish which means "one who attends meetings".) Thus Irish Catholic culture had a very deep history of training people to have great memories.

I grew up in a print culture, rich in books and magazines, well supplied with libraries. School was largely about learning from books, and learning to use printed resources for obtaining new information, as well as learning to express oneself in writing. It was less important for me to commit large amounts of information to memory, and more important for me to learn how to find the information I needed (in graduate school) to develop the habits of reading journals to keep up with newly generated infromation. Indeed, when I went to teach in Latin America, it was a shock to find how poor were the resources in printed information available to my students and faculty colleagues.

In the academic communities in which I participated in the United States in the second half of the 20th century, large stocks of information were available on demand in libraries. Indeed, I had a personal and professional library that would have been the envy of even a very rich man of the 18th century.

The Internet, and more importantly the World Wide Web, makes an enormous amount of information available on demand in ways that far exceed even the availability in the academic community in the 1950's. Sitting here in my home with my laptop connected by wireless to the World Wide Web, I have much more information available more easily than I would have had in a university library when I was in college.

If you think about it, the experience of industry with on demand delivery of parts is comparable to the experience of the individual with on demand delivery of information. Manufacturing companies used to hold large inventories of parts in order to guarantee that they could run their manufacturing lines efficiently and meet production deadlines. Indeed, they often used vertical integration of production of parts and final products in order to guarantee all the parts would be available when needed. The Internet promoted a restructuring of industry, allowing more outsourcing and smaller inventories, since the communication between parts suppliers and assembly plants was so much improved.

So too, the Internet frees us from having to have so much information in our memories and in our libraries, since we can obtain information so quickly and easily from the World Wide Web.

The new generation is now seen as multitasking. Information is streaming in from radio, television, and the Internet as well as from conversation, all simultaneously. They have much less patience with information that is buried in the story telling of magazines and newspapers, seeking more the summaries or precis. Hyperlinks would allow one to link to more and more information on the item if desired.

Multitasking may be a useful response to the relatively information rich environment provided by the contemporary information infrastructure.

Google is the modern Cybernaut's guide to cyberspace, as Virgil was Dante's guide to the afterworld. It has devoted more than 1000 person years to developing the algorithms which allow the cybernaut to navigate the web, as well as uncounted machine hours and bytes to mapping cyberspace.

The Google staff seeks to develop algorithms that make entry to cyberspace intuitive for its users. It seeks to recognize the way people use words and language, and the way that usage is changing. I would suggest, however, that our ways of thinking about access to information are also adapting to the service provided by Google.

Information literacy is increasingly recognized as important, in the sense that people need more than ever to be able to evaluate the quality and utility of information that they retrieve from the Internet. I also note that people differ markedly in the facility that they have developed in finding information in cyberspace, and in the facility that they have in using Google and other navigation tools.

We think not only with our brains, but with our "information surrounds". Those who think best have developed the habits of information processing that are best adapted to fully utilize the expanding resources of that surround. The student at the beginning of the 21st century needs to train his/her mind in ways quite different than those used in my father's time at the beginning of the 20th century, because our information surround is so much richer and faster than was his. Google thinking is different in kind than recitation!

Saturday, July 05, 2008

The Food Crisis

Source: "Global Food Crisis," FrontLines, USAID, June 2008.

Friday, July 04, 2008

A further thought about the Manhattan Project

A thought occurred to me complementing my previous posting on J. Robert Oppenheimer. In that posting I suggested that the Manhattan Project which created the first atom bomb was trailbreaking in the magnitude of the effort to develop a cutting-edge technology.

The project was initiated by physicists, and was quite small in its origins. It succeeded in producing an atom bomb in 1945 only because Leslie Groves came in and put 100,000 people to work producing the fissionable materials that were needed to make the bomb.

Scientists were accustomed to working on a small scale with miniscule budgets. It may not be surprising that when they were developing the ideas that an atomic bomb might be created and estimating the amounts of fissionable material that would be needed, they did so with a limited effort and budget, and therefore rather slowly.

Groves, was an engineer, trained at MIT as well as West Point and the Corps of Engineers. He had lead in the construction of the Pentagon as well as in other facilities needed to upgrade the army capabilities to fight World War II. He was the man, apparently, who re