Right on Marty!

Einstein was right again

WOW Internet of Things Exploding: 50B Connected Devices By 2020

Jim Harris Tweeted the original, and Calestous Juma shared it on FaceBook where I found it and shared it.

Data on India's remarkable growth in average income.

Source:

HumanProgress.org

Female Genital Mutilation Rates in Africa

Thanks to Calestous Juma for the map.

No math book, no physics, no chemistry -- interesting list

Thanks to William Easterly

Of course the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is much larger than that of the USA.

The World is More Peaceful Now Than at any Time in simce 1950

Source: "OK, Haters, It's Time To Admit It: The World Is Becoming A Better Place"

The trend seems clear. The number of war and battle deaths is decreasing over time, no mater what region you look at -- given a long enough period of observation. The major periods of decreasing violence are: post World War 2. post Vietnam War, and after the dismemberment of the USSR

A brief timeline of war from the late 1970s to 1999 follows:

• In the late 1970s and 1980s there were the Afghanistan War and the Iraqi-Iranian War; the latter war ends in 1980; Great Britain and Argentina have a limited war over the Falkland Islands
• There are massive demonstrations calling for less Communist ideological regime in the Warsaw Pact nations in the early 1980s as well as demonstrations calling for reforms of the Chinese government.  Israel invades Lebanon.
• In 1985 Gorbachev succeeds to power in Russia, 
• In 1986 the Chernobyl disaster takes place, leaving a large footprint of radioactive gas west of the site in the Ukraine.
• 1987: the Iran Contra scandal become public.
• 1988: George H.W. Bush become U.S. president. Benazir Bhutto is chosen to lead Pakistan. 
• 1989: The Berlin Wall comes down. The beginning of the end of Communist government in Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Romania can be perceived (perhaps in retrospect, better than at the time). Huge pro democracy demonstrations are held in Tiananmen Square in China. The Soviet Union withdraws its troops from Afghanistan.
• 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait igniting the Persian Gulf War. East and West Germany are reunited. The Cold War is officially ended as the U.S. and USSR negotiate arms accords. Nelson Mandela is freed. leading to a public process to normalize governance in South Africa. Leaders of 34 European nations proclaim a united Europe.
• 1991: The U.S. led alliance wins the Persian Gulf War. Communist hard-liners attempt to overthrow Gorbachev, but the coup fails. Gorbachev resigns as President. The USSR dissolves into 15 separate republics. The Warsaw Pact for military protection is dissolved. Boris Yeltsin is elected as the president of the Russian Republic. South African parliament overturns apartheid laws.
• 1992: Presidents Bush and Yeltsin declare a formal end to the Cold War.
• 1993: Clinton becomes U.S. President. The European Union is ratified. American soldiers die in Mogadishu, Somalia. Rwandan genocide begins. A Western multinational effort begins seeking to stop ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia. President Boris Yeltsin's forces crush a revolt in the Russian Parliament. South Africa adopts a majority rule constitution.
• 1994: Ethnic cleansing continues in the former Yugoslavia. In Rwanda, Hutu militias kill up to a million Tutsis. South Africa holds its first interracial, one-man-one-vote election and Nelson Mandela is elected president. Russia attacks the republic of Chechnya after Muslims there attempt to secede.
• 1995: Fighting escalates in Bosnia and Croatia. At the end of the year, combatants sign the Bosnian peace treaty.
• 1996: Taliban Muslim fundamentalists capture Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Later al-Qaeda terrorist training camps are set up. Iraqi troops fire on Kurdish positions in the north of the country. The U.S. warns Iraq, attacks Iraq's air defenses and declares a "No Fly" zone in the north of the country. Refugees in Rwanda and Burundi are caught up in new fighting and killings.
• 1997: 
• 1998: In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Accords promise peace and political power sharing. Violence in the former Yugoslavia continues until NATO reaches a settlement with President Milosevic in October.
• 1999: NATO air strikes move to Kosovo. In May, Serbs agree to pull troops out of Kosovo. Israeli prime minister Ehub Barak and PLO leader Yasir Arafat announce peace accord. 
• 2000: Palestinian and Israeli violence explodes into the "intifada."
• 2001: On September 11, terrorists attack the World Trade Center in New York.
• 2002: Israeli tanks and warplanes attack West Bank towns in retaliation for 14 suicide bombing incidents. 
• 2003: In March, the U.S. and Britain launch war against Iraq. Within a month, Baghdad falls. By July, the war is costing $3.9 billion a month. Saddam Hussein's sons are killed in a firefight, but their father remains at large. In December, Saddam Hussein himself is captured by American troops. Israel retaliates for suicide bombings by killing top members of Hamas. Other militant Palestinian groups formally withdraw from a cease fire. Bush's "road map" to peace collapses.
• 2004: Iraq weapons investigator David Kay resigns saying there is no evidence that Iraq ever had weapons of mass destruction. U.S. media release graphic photos of American soldiers abusing and sexually humiliating Iraqi prisoners at the Abu Ghraib prison. Protests erupt all over the world. In June, the U.S. hands over power to an Iraqi interim government led by Iyad Allawi. In November, U.S. troops launch attacks on Falluja. Spain is rocked by terrorist attacks, and al-Qaeda claims responsibility. NATO formally admits seven new countries from the former Soviet block. Sudanese rebels and the government reach accord to end the 21-year-old civil war. But in a separate war in western Darfur region, the killing continues. Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan admits he sold nuclear weapons designs to other countries, including North Korea, Iran and Libya. UN weapons inspectors tell Iran to stop enriching uranium. Iran claims they are building only peaceful uses for nuclear power.
• 2005: In Iraq, elections are held to select a national assembly; Iraqi voters turn out again in October to ratify a new constitution. In December, 11 million – 70 percent of those registered – vote to elect their first permanent Parliament. The European Union abandons plans to ratify the proposed European constitution by 2006 after both France and the Netherlands vote against it. London is hit by Islamic terrorist bombings, killing 52 people and wounding 700. The Irish Republican Army announces it is officially ending its violent campaign for a unified Ireland and will instead pursue its goals through the political process.
• 2006: In January, President Bush announces he will send a "surge" of 20,000 more troops to Iraq in addition to the 130,000 already there. In Iraq, violence between different sects increases. In November, voters elect Democratic Party majorities in both the House and the Senate, largely due to opposition to the war in Iraq. Defense Donald Rumsfeld steps down and is replaced by Robert Gates. Iran removes United Nations' seals from its uranium enrichment plant and production of the fuel is resumed. 
• 2007: The top commander in Iraq, Gen. David Patraeus, says the troop "surge" is working, reducing sectarian killings in Baghdad and across the nation. At a hearing at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed confesses to planning the September 11 Al Qaeda attachs on the World Trade Center. He also claims responsibility for a number of other terrorist acts.

This timeline is summarized from a more detailed one.

We will miss Alan Rickman

Sometimes you have the right idea bu don't trust it.

"Businesses grow because the people working there are good at solving problems — whether that means solving a customer’s problem through the creation of a new product or solving an internal problem, such as recruiting or communication.

"There’s one question that the best CEOs use to help their people become better problem solvers. It’s a little bit of mental jiu jitsu and gets the subconscious mind working in the background to magically start piecing together the solution to a problem."

Read the rest of the short article!

LARA FABIAN FULL "NUE" Live 2002 COMPLETE WITH SUBTITLES SPANISH

FDR Got it Right

Job Growth Is Strong

Average monthly new jobs                          Yearly average unemployment

By Year 2006 ti 2015  Source: The New York Tmes

William Butter Yeats was influenced by a poem by Blind Raftery to buy and restore Thoor Ballylee

Antoine Ó Raifteirí (perhaps better known as Blind Raftery) is an ancestor of mine, and a rather famous poet (1779–1835). He was blind as a result of having smallpox as a child. Consequently he did not write his poems or songs but committed them to memory. Moreover, he composed in Irish and there was no interest in publishing the work of an Irish minstral in Irish during his lifetime. Fortunately, others did capture his songs and poems on paper (at least some times) and some survived in the memories of other for decades. during the revival of Irish culture that took place a century after he lived, Douglas Hyde (Songs Ascribed to Raftery), Lady Gregory (Lady Gregory: Selected Writings)  and William Butler Yeats hunted through the west of Ireland, discovering Raftery's songs and poems.

Thoor Ballylee

While Yeats is probably the more famous in the USA today, having won the Nobel Prize for Literature, Douglas Hyde was the first President of the Irish Free State. Lady Gregory was I suppose much more famous in her time than she is now, having published a number of books bringing the history of the Irish people to the attention of the Irish themselves. Yeats and Lady Gregory formed a long lasting literary partnership and friendship. Indeed, he bought a property, Thoor Ballylee (#4 on the map), just northeast of the town of Gort.  Lady Gregory's home Coole Park is even closer to Gort, on the lake and just north west of Gort (#2 on the map) -- one could walk between the two. Clearly, proximity to his friend and colleague was important in the choice of location for Yeats' home in his later years  Yet Lady Gregory had established Coole Park as a center for the intellectual elite and that too might have been important.

Lady Augusta Gregory

Under Gregory’s watchful eye Coole House had become a centre for literary and political gatherings, welcoming a great number of notable figures of the day, including William Butler Yeats, his brother the painter Jack Yeats, George Bernard Shaw, John Millington Synge, George Russell (A.E.), and the first President of Ireland, Douglas Hyde. Together with Edward Martyn, who lived down the road at Tulira Castle, Yeats and Gregory founded the Irish Literary Theatre, soon to become the Abbey Theatre. Yeats described the tower and surrounding landscape in his book The Celtic Twilight (1893), which featured local stories about the area and a poem by Antoine O Raifteiri (known to Yeats as Raftery, the poem translated by Lady Gregory) concerning his love for a local beauty named Mary Hynes.

Source: The Lady Gregory Yeats Heritage Trail

Phoroggaph of William Butler Yeats
 by Alice Broughton. Platinum print.

It also seems that the link of Blind Raftery, Mary Hynes and Thoor Ballylee may have been important in Yeats' choice of a home he would buy: from 1921 to 1929, Yeats with his family spent many summers there.

In his poem Coole Park And Ballylee, 1931 he wrote:

Under my window-ledge the waters race,
Otters below and moor-hens on the top,
Run for a mile undimmed in Heaven's face
Then darkening through 'dark' Raftery's 'cellar' drop,
Run underground, rise in a rocky place
In Coole demesne, and there to finish up
Spread to a lake and drop into a hole.
What's water but the generated soul? 

And in The Winding Stair. Yeats wrote:

I am content to live it all again And yet again, if it be life to pitch Into the frog-spawn of a blind man's ditch, A blind man battering blind men; Or into that most fecund ditch of all, The folly that man does Or must suffer, if he woos A proud woman not kindred of his soul.

Raftery's Mary Hynes 

James Stephens published a book of his versions of some of Raftery's poems in the 1920s.  (Reincarnations by James Stephens (1882–1950).  His text for three poems that combine into the choral piece by Samuel Barber, Reincarnations.

Mary Hynes 

She is the sky of the sun,
   She is the dart
      Of love,
She is the love of my heart,
She is a rune,
      She is above
The women of the race of Eve
As the sun is above the moon. 

Lovely and airy the view from the hill
   That looks down Ballylea;
But no good sight is good until
   By great good luck you see
The Blossom of the Branches walking towards you
   Airily.

Anthony O’Daly

Since your limbs were laid out
   The stars do not shine,
The fish leap not out
   In the waves.
On our meadows the dew
   Does not fall in the morn,
For O’Daly is dead:
   Not a flower can be born,
Not a word can be said,
   Not a tree have a leaf;
Anthony, after you
   There is nothing to do,
There is nothing but grief.

And:

The Coolin 

Come with me, under my coat,
   And we will drink our fill
Of the milk of the white goat,
   Or wine if it be thy will;
   And we will talk until
Talk is a trouble, too,
   Out on the side of the hill,
And nothing is left to do,
   But an eye to look into an eye
And a hand in a hand to slip,
   And a sigh to answer a sigh,
And a lip to find out a lip:
   What if the night be black
And the air on the mountain chill,
   Where the goat lies down in her track
   And all but the fern is still!
   Stay with me, under my coat,
And we will drink our fill
   Of the milk of the white goat
Out on the side of the hill.

And here is Reincarnations (Samuel Barber) sung by the Cardinal Singers


T
The interest of so many distinguished Irish intellectuals has generated modern events:

A drawing believed to be of Raftery 

An annual festival, Féile Raiftéirí, is held in Loughrea, Co. Galway each year on the last weekend in March. Raftery spent most of his later years in townlands close to the town. The festival features a contemporary Irish language poet and promotes the native arts of Ireland. The festival ends with a visit to Raiftéirí grave in neighbouring Craughwell.

Ó Raifteirí died at the house of Diarmuid Cloonan of Killeeneen, near Craughwell, County Galway, and was buried in nearby Killeeneen Cemetery. In 1900, Lady Gregory, Edward Martyn, and W.B. Yeats erected a memorial stone over his grave, bearing the inscription "RAFTERY". A statue of him stands in the village green, Craughwell, opposite Cawley's pub. (Source)

Kiltmagh granate memorial

Kiltimagh (where Raftery was born) town square features a granite memorial in honour of Anthony Raftery erected in 1985, in that same year Kiltimagh twinned with Craughwell, the final resting place of the blind Gaelic poet. (Source)

GOP Candidates, Should Read This

A Group of Scientists sign declaration that animals share the same awareness with humans

I quote from the source atricle:

Recently an international group of prominent scientists have signed The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness. This declaration proclaims their support for the idea that animals are conscious and aware to the degree that humans are. The list of animals includes all mammals, birds, and even the octopus. 

The group consisted of cognitive scientists, neuropharmacologists, neurophysiologists, neuroanatomists, and computational neuroscientists. They were all attending the Francis Crick Memorial Conference on Consciousness in Human and Non-Human Animals. The declaration was signed in the presence of Stephen Hawking, and included such signatories as Christof Koch, David Edelman, Edward Boyden, Philip Low, Irene Pepperberg, and many others.

Scientists have been imposing more and stronger rules on themselves for decades as to how animals must be treated in scientific research. There are different rules for primates, farm animals, laboratory animals, and wild animals.

Once the strength of many drugs actually compounded in local pharmacies were measured in "cat units". A cat unit was the volume of a tincture just sufficient to kill an adult cat. That meant that the local drug store owner that was labeling a new batch of the medicine had to test it on cats until he found the does that just killed a cat and a lower dosage (which of course made the cat quite sick) did not kill it.  The local pharmacist had a back room with a lot of cats in cages -- there were few stray cats on the streets.

Why cats you might ask. The answer is apparently that "killing dogs got people upset".

There were actually thousands of scientific papers written using "cat units" to describe the act of natural products such as digitalis on animals and humans.

This clearly is leading to a further advance.

A major problem in running an international research program is in assuring the ethical treatment of animals involved in the research. One issue is that different countries have different laws. Another is that the Western sensibility about animal suffering -- which is evolving as it has done for decades and indeed centuries -- is not exactly equivalent to that in other cultures.

I know. as I dealt with the ethics of treatment of animals in international scientific research as an important part of my job from 1981 to 1997.

Apparently most people don't understand compound interest

'Percentage of people who understand the concept of compound interest in various countries, with the differences in understanding by gender determined by how dark the circle is. Notably, majority Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia and Yemen have some of the lowest rates of understanding, presumably because Sharia Law prohibits the charging of interest." The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy

Joan Baez - let it be (live in France, 1973)

D.C. court considers how to screen out ‘bad science’ in local trials

There is an interesting article in today's Washington Post titled "D.C. court considers how to screen out ‘bad science’ in local trials".Having managed "peer reviews" of science project proposals for nearly two decades, I have come to the conclusion that this is not an easy thing to do, and even if you have been doing it for some time, you may still get it wrong from time to time;

Fortunately, DC has access to the National Acamey of Science, NIH, NSF. and other organizations with lots of experience doing this, and can delegate the work.

One thing I found useful was developing a data base on how often each expert agreed with other experts. I discovered when I first tried this that expert judgments in that field, which we often taken as 100 percent correct, actually agreed on the final recommendation no more that 90 percent of the time.

In one situation in which the same group of "experts" repeatedly judged similar objects, one of the "expert's" reviews was negatively correlated with all the others. 

Adele - When We Were Young (Live at The Church Studios)