THE GREEN REVOLUTION

The Green Revolution has been in many respects the prototypical example of the development and application of “Knowledge for Development”. R. E. Evenson and D. Gollin have published an article in the new Science magazine (Volume 300, Number 5620, Issue of 2 May 2003, pp. 758-762) titled “Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000”. I find it exceptional, reporting on the work of the Special Project on Impact Assessment of the CGIAR. It is based on data on 11 crops in more than 100 countries, over the 40 year span. (Subscription needed to read the paper online.)

The report is very favorable about the effect of modern varieties, demonstrating that they have become increasingly important in all regions. It recognizes the lag in development of African agriculture, placing some of the responsibility on the unwise attempt to utilize varieties developed for other regions without adequate adaptation to African conditions, as well as economic and political factors.

The report recognizes the importance of National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS), but emphasizes the value of the International Agricultural Research Centers (IARCs). While the NARS have played an essential role in adapting new varieties to local conditions, and producing the varieties planted by farmers, they have obtained relatively little of their source improved varieties from other NARS. IARCs produced genetic materials are found in many new varieties.

The report recognizes that increased land under cultivation, increased irrigation, and increased chemical inputs are responsible for much of the increase in food production, and attributes only a portion to improved crop varieties. It suggests however, that without the work of the IARCs, food prices would be higher, there would be much less food production in developing nations, and that there would by much more widespread malnutrition in the world.

One important finding is that, contrary to common opinion, the Green Revolution did not end in the 1970’s, but has continued for at least four decades. While the technological base existed in 1960 to allow rapid improvement in yields in wheat and rice, it took decades to develop comparable technological bases for other major food crops. The development of new varieties continues, and the dissemination of improved varieties continues not only in Africa, but also in Asia and Latin America.

I would suggest that this is another example of a technological system. While the key element may have been the introduction of dwarf varieties of wheat and rice, that would grow heavy grain loads with fertilization and irrigation and not lodge (fall-over from the weight of the grain head), there have been many other related innovations – from development of pest and disease control, to the development of some 8,000 new releases of improved varieties for difference agro-ecological conditions, to massive investments in irrigation and agricultural chemical production. It is not surprising that the dissemination of a new technological system to hundreds of millions of farmers takes several decades (or longer).