FATE OF GLOBAL WARMING PACT IN DOUBT

The Washington Post today has an article suggesting that Russia may not ratify the Kyoto pact on global warming. The Global Warming Treaty has an unusual element, in that countries contributing 55 percent of greenhouse gasses in 1990 had to ratify the Treaty for it to go into effect. Since the United States of America contributed 36 percent, and Russia contributed 17 percent, these two countries together contributed more than half of all greenhouse gasses, and consequently by both refusing to ratify the treaty could kill it.

The Bush Administration has already refused to ratify the Treaty, and President Putin yesterday made remarks that the Post construed as indicating that Russia may not ratify. The 114 countries that already ratified the Treaty, representing 44 percent of emissions, are probably not pleased!

Hurricane Isabel raised the issue of global warming in our minds here. Since sea level has been raised a foot in the last century, and is expected to rise another foot or two in the next century, flooding in the coastal zones is more of a problem. The storm surge from Isabel, added to tides and a higher sea level, created flooding at previously unrecorded levels in the upper Chesapeake Bay, including Baltimore. If as seems likely, global warming, by putting more energy into the atmosphere, will increase the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes and tropical storms, then we can expect more and worse events like Isabel. Moreover, people are moving to the coasts here, and there will be more people and more construction in the paths of these storms.

What good is it to develop scientific knowledge and understanding of the processes contributing to global warming and of the effects that global warming will have if politicians will not act on the information for the public welfare?