A thought on the limitation of policy analysis

I have been reading James Reston Jr.'s book Dogs of God: Columbus, the Inquisition, and the Defeat of the Moors. The book begins with the joining of Castile and Aragon via the marriage of Fernando and Isabela, and continues through the conquest of Granada.

The late 15th century saw the synergistic strengthening of the monarchy and the church, and the creation of a theocratic, intolerant Spain from a collection of relatively tolerant, multicultural smaller states. The Inquisition and the Reconquest of Spain from the Moors would have been the overriding concern of those in power. The Portuguese recognized the potential of a sea route to the spice producers of the Orient via the circumnavigation of Africa.

However, only in retrospect is Columbus important. Yet I would suggest that the discovery of the Americas was an event of greater political and economic importance than the creation of the Spanish nation, and the Columbian Exchange (which moved plant and animal species between the Western and Eastern hemispheres) was of paramount ecological as well as social and economic importance.

The thought might give us some pause for reflection on the limitations of our policy analysis. The Portuguese, English and French apparently missed the opportunity to fund the Columbian expedition, and only the Spanish monarchs eventually took the time away away from their pressing military concerns and the restructuring of their society to make the modest investment in exploration. We are no smarter than were our ancestors of half a millennium in the past.