Another Megatrend

Last year I posted a brief essay on global megatrends. Let me add another megatrend to those described on Mankind's Physical Power, Mankind's Intellectual Power, and the Agenda of the Community of Nations.

The Dissemination of Political and Economic Power

World Wars I and II saw the economies of Western European powers gravely weakened. At the end of World War II, the United States was the the only global economic superpower, and Western Capitalism confronted Soviet Communism for political power. The latter part of the 20th Century saw decolonization, nation building in Africa and other developing areas, and the end of Communism as an economic force. Europe rebuilt and consolidated its markets returning to economic comparability to North America. Japan too rebuilt. Economic tigers, relatively small emerging economies managed to join the club of developed nations, and large emerging economies (China, India, Russia, and Brazil especially) began to flex economic muscles. Overall, economic growth was very uneven and income disparities between rich and poor nations increased. While the political power of the rich nations remained considerable, the large number of less affluent countries could exercise power in multilateral negotiations through voting coalitions.

While the current economic situation appears grave, one may suspect that over the next half century we will see economic and political power more widely disseminated, with Asian nations perhaps reaching power comparable to that of North America and Europe with Latin America not too far behind. The hegemony that the United States enjoyed in 1945 to 50 is unlikely to return. On the other hand, African economic and political progress remains in doubt.