"Swine Flu: Mexico tries to focus on source of infection"

Source: Tracy Wilkinson and Cecilia Sánchez, The Los Angeles Times, April 28, 2009

"With the death toll climbing, Mexican authorities at the center of an international swine flu epidemic struggled Monday to piece together its lethal march, with attention focusing on a 4-year-old boy and a pig farm.

"The boy, who survived the illness, has emerged as Mexico's earliest known case of the never-before-seen virus, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said Monday. It provides an important clue to the unique strain's path."

Comment: The good news is that if this kid was really the index case -- the person who contacted the virus from a pig and passed it on to one or more people -- then the world detected the outbreak early and has a fighting chance to contain it.

I would also suggest that the disease may become less virulent as it moves from Mexico to other places. Virus populations mutate very rapidly, and there is a theory that flu viruses that leave their victims well enough to walk around tend to disseminate farther and faster than those which cause graver illness.

The bad news is that this kid may not be the index case after all. JAD