Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Overreaction to swine flu

My local schools, which were to be closed for two weeks due to suspected cases of the H1N1 flu are to be reopened without that wait, given that the CDC has declared the epidemic to be less severe than had originally feared. On the other hand, Brazil has postponed the World Conference on Adult Education (CONFINTEA VI) that had been scheduled for May 18-22 in Belém for fear of swine flu. It had been announced that 100 national delegations had previously accepted invitations to attend the conference.

What is the difference? Is it unreasonable fear of exposure to an epidemic in Brazil, or unreasonable overconfidence in the CDC and local school officials? Is it that the United States is coming out of the normal flu season in the northern hemisphere, while Brazil is entering the flu season in the southern hemisphere? Is it that we are at the end of the semester and that two weeks of closure would be difficult to handle administratively, justifying the risk of flu? Could it be that the risk of thousands of people coming to Brazil from all over the world would create too much of a threat of importation of the epidemic?

It might be that both decisions are correct. It could be that both decisions are rational, made in view of the risks, costs, and benefits of the alternatives available to decision makers, and that the differences are more apparent than real. But it could also be that the Brazilians have over reacted.

1 comment:

John Daly said...

According to the Washington Post, "At least 726 schools nationwide that serve more than 480,000 students -- including a handful of schools in the Washington area -- have closed in the past week in an attempt to stem the spread of the virus."