Climat Change is Going to Flood Egypt

This is the Nile delta, with sea level rises of 1 meter (dark blue) and 2 meters (light blue), along with population density (lighter to darker browns) and urban areas (hatching). Of the 40.2 million people here in 2000, 10.7 million would be inundated by a 2-meter rise. The inset shows the distribution of farmlands. Credit: Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University

The Nile Delta is not only one of the cradles of civilization, but historically one of the richest agricultural areas in the world. A combination of factors threatens to put a lot of it under water.

• An estimated half of the delta is less than one meter above sea level. Climate change is likely to result in a sea level rise that will flood much or all of this area. There are already areas flooded, and other lands are being damaged by salt from sea water that is intruding into the ground water.
• Worst case estimates are that sea level might rise by 2 meters by 2100.
• Prior to the construction of the Aswan dam, the Nile flooded each year, inundating the Nile Delta and depositing rich soil in the process. That process has ended.
• The population of Egypt is something like 82 million, and it is still growing at something like 2 percent per year.
• It is estimated that half of all food production in Egypt, that in the low lying Delta, is threatened by sea level rise.
• Millions of people live in the threatened area, and Egypt has been trying to settle more there to relieve the crowding of urban areas.
• Per capita GDP of Egypt is $5,800 -- not bad by global standards but hardly enough to deal with huge losses in agricultural production and mass migration of people from a flooded Delta plane.
• Government has been quite stable in Egypt, but my reading of Egyptian culture suggests that the people really focus on water and agriculture and that massive loss of the Nile Delta to sea water incursion would be destabilizing.
• Egypt is not only a key ally of the United States in the Arab world, but it has been a major source of stabilization for the entire region.

I am not happy with the impact of sea level rises in the next few decades on Egypt!