A great ICT application

Source: "Predictive Modeling Warns Drivers One Hour before Jams Occur," Mark Fischetti, Scientific American, June 2010

I quote:

Onboard navigation and mobile applications can tell drivers how to avoid traffic jams. Trouble is, most of the drivers are already on the road, perhaps already in the jam. But IBM is about to deploy a system that will predict traffic flow up to an hour before it occurs, giving travelers ample time to avoid trouble.

During pilot tests in Singapore, forecasts made across 500 urban locations accurately predicted traffic volume 85 to 93 percent of the time and vehicle speed 87 to 95 percent of the time. Similar results were achieved in Finland and on the New Jersey Turnpike.

Comment: As much as I hate traffic jams at home, I realize that they are much worse in the megalopolises that now exist and are growing in developing nations. While the cost of developing a traffic prediction system for Mexico City, Beijing or Cairo might he quite high, I bet it would be dwarfed by the amount of resources waisted in traffic jams.

Year ago I worked with a friend to develop a system to synchronize the traffic lights in Santiago, the largest city in Chile. We installed the system and tested it. For one day the traffic flowed in "green waves" down the main street in Santiago. Unfortunately, the city officials never updated the timing (which had to be done manually) and soon things were as congested as ever. Technology alone does not solve organizational problems!

Still, Microsoft will develop other applications of predictive modelling and they approach will be applied in some places. The congestion in places such as Bangkok and Sao Paulo may well be so bad that people will demand the technology be applied!