LEADERSHIP AND THE FUTURE IMPACT OF ICT

I made a blog entry on Sunday, April 5, on the future of ICT. To assume that the future of ICT determined the future impact of the technology would, I think, smack of a single factor theory of development. I have made the case elsewhere "Studying the Impacts of the Internet Without Assuming Technological Determinism) that multi factor theories are best suited to explain development; that a host of social and economic factors interact with the technological to affect the social and economic outcomes. Thus, the leadership we need to affect the future impact of ICT in developing countries may be at least as much focused on the social and economic environment in which the technology innovations take place, are diffused, and disseminated, as on the development of the technologies as such.

Amartya Sen, in an essay in the 1999 book titled “Predictions: 30 Great Minds on the Future”, provides a shopping list of two things he wants for the future: “more spread and consolidation of democracy” and “a fuller use of reasoning in social matters”. Intellectual leadership to empower the people and make them more rational seems very important in improving the future impact of ICT.

Where is leadership most urgently needed? There are probably critical paths in reducing poverty using ICT. Thus one has to have technology, people, finance and institutions combine for many purposes. The longest development for any of these inputs sets the pace for the combination. In the preparation of people to utilize ICT, one has to develop training institutions; one has to train people to work in those institutions; the trainers should embody the rational spirit Sen seeks; for the higher level skills, years of education may be needed; the primary and secondary education systems that feed students to the ICT training schools have to be adequate; then you need to train enough people that they form a critical mass. This may well be the critical path for many ICT applications in development. And thus, leadership in the development of the training institutions may be among the most urgent needs for the future impact of ICT.

I may be wrong about either or both of these examples, but I think the general point is valid. The most important and urgently needed leadership to maximize the future benefits of information and communication technology may well be social and economic, rather than technological.