Monday, November 08, 2004

Will we see another flu epidemic like that of 1918 -- killing 20 to 50 million?

The New York Times > Magazine > The Flu Hunters:

"The vaccine shortage will almost certainly not be what history remembers about influenza from this year and next. The vaccine situation will probably be transitory. It is a matter for lawmakers and regulators. Fukuda, Uyeki and their colleagues fear that influenza itself won't be so amenable. Events in Asia, in particular, are escalating almost daily, with more human deaths, more different species becoming infected and more questions arising about how the virus there behaves. At the same time, some governments in the region are remaining closemouthed about what is happening within their borders. This reticence exponentially increases the difficulty of epidemiologists' work. Flu hunters are expected to forestall any big outbreak. But Fukuda and Uyeki's real fear is that they might not know one is starting until it is too advanced to stop. "

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