"Containing a pandemic

Economist.com Full Story:

"FOR many years, virologists have been warning that an outbreak of pandemic influenza is overdue. Unlike the seasonal version, pandemic influenza is usually severe and deadly?the result of a genetic mutation in the virus. Influenza pandemics happen from time to time. Three occurred during the 20th century. The worst was in 1918, when one-quarter of the world's population fell ill and 25m-50m people died. The strain of avian influenza (bird flu) that is currently endemic in Asia has just the characteristics that keep epidemiologists awake at night. In the past week, bird flu has also been reported in birds (and also a person) in Russia and Kazakhstan........

"Both papers conclude that between 100,000 and 3m doses of anti-viral drugs would be needed to stamp out an outbreak, if deployed within three weeks of detection of the first case and combined with household quarantine. Where the virus is more transmissible or where the pandemic emerges simultaneously in many places, the number of doses needed would be at the top of this range. To prevent the spread of disease, anti-viral drugs would also have to be given to a high proportion of people in the surrounding area (the figures include these doses).

"The papers' findings make it more urgent to complete current negotiations between Roche, the manufacturer of the anti-viral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu), and the World Health Organisation on the creation of a global stockpile that could be delivered rapidly to the source of an outbreak. David Reddy, who is in charge of pandemic preparedness at Roche, says that the firm is in advanced discussions over donating a stockpile of Tamiflu on this scale."