"Is Bird Flu Drug Really So Vexing? Debating the Difficulty of Tamiflu"

Read Andrew Pollack's full article in today's edition of The New York Times. (Registration required, but free.)

Tamiflu (generic name: oseltamivir), the drug of choice for (early) treatment of the flu, is currently made from a natural product, shikimic acid, which in turn is produced from star anise. Apparently, star anise is only grown wild, and is only produced in commercial quantities in China. The price is increasing rapidly, as demand for Tamiflu is increasing to meet the need for protection against avian flu (and other kinds of flu) and supply is limited. (I read one suggestion that the recent flooding in China has threatened next year's yield of star anise, but I don't know if that is true.) This article in The New York Times addresses the potential for producing shikimic acid in a vat fermentation process, using genetically engineered bacteria. (I came across one newspaper article that suggests that the synthetic shikimic acid is not as suitable for drug production as the natural product, but I don't know if that is true.) The article also mentions other natural products that might be used in alternative processes for the production of Tamiflu. Given that 100 firms have made inquiries about licensing of the Tamiflu technologies, one might expect firms to try to produce alternative anti-virals using some of the other natural products with appropriate processing technology.