"Pandemic or Not, Experts Welcome Bush Flu Plan"

Read Jocelyn Kaiser's article in Science magazine. (Subscription required.)

"The Bush Administration's proposed flu plan, calling for $7.1 billion to help prepare the nation for a deadly influenza pandemic, is generally winning plaudits from public health experts--but not necessarily because they think a pandemic is imminent. Even if no such disaster materializes, they say, the plan will finance a much-needed overhaul of the nation's regular flu vaccine infrastructure.

"When he announced the initiative last week, President George W. Bush noted growing concerns that the H5N1 avian influenza now spreading west from Asia could acquire the ability to be transmitted from human to human. In caveats sometimes lost in general press accounts, Bush and other officials emphasized that H5N1 might not morph into a pandemic strain. A plan is needed, they say, to combat the emergence of any superstrain of human influenza, an event that has happened three times since 1900 and that many think is inevitable in the next few years..........

"The Administration's plan quickly drew congressional fire. In several hearings, lawmakers complained that it would provide insufficient money to states, which are expected to help pay for the antiviral drugs. Others have expressed concerned that the Department of Homeland Security will lead the response, rather than HHS, which has the appropriate public health expertise.

"The plan arrives as some experts are questioning whether the likelihood of a devastating pandemic is being exaggerated. Off it, for example, suggests that H5N1, which has sickened 120 people over the past 8 years and killed about half, would have spread from human to human by now if it was going to happen. But he and others are praising the Bush plan anyway because it will help reduce the toll from seasonal influenza. 'We're seduced into this tsunami mentality,' (Paul) Offit says. But if you add up annual deaths from influenza, he says the numbers quickly approach pandemic estimates. Longini agrees: 'I'm glad all this is happening, but not because of pandemic flu.'"