During the 20th century, there was one pandemic of influenza that killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people, orders of magnitude more than any flu pandemic in human history.
Katrina hit New Orleans, a once-in-a-century event, and killed 2000 people and caused unprecedented damage.
There are estimates the magnitudes of events that will only be expected to be exceeded once per century -- floods, earthquakes, droughts, etc.
One question is how do we, as a society plan for catastrophic events that have low probabilities. We, as individuals, are affected by an "availability" falicy of memory -- we often function as if the things we recall most easily are the most likely, and as if things not available easily in our memory do not concern us. Not a good idea when facing a once-in-a-century probability of catastrophy.
As societies, we are scarcely better. We rebuild cities on the rubble left by hurricanes and earthquakes, and on the lava from previous eruptions of active volcanoes. We build in flood planes, and sites prone to mud slides, and rebuild buildings destroyed by wild fires.
But there is another issue, and that is our difficulty in perceiving and responding to emergencies that occur on a time scale measured in decades or centuries.
HIV/AIDS emerged as a new disease in the 20th century, I think the only really major new disease of the 20th century, and has killed tens of millions of people. It was painful to see the lack of global response in the early years to the epidemic that seemed so obviously likely to kill millions or tens of millions.
Jared Diamond, in his book, Collapse, points out how societies have been destroyed when they were unable to respond to climate changes or environmental problems that developed over decades or centuries. His analysis suggests that if the Greenland Norse had recognized their problems caused by the Little Ice Age and the environmental degredation that they were causing, and that the Inuit were handling things better, they might have become more like the Inuit and survived. His analysis suggests that if societies that were seeding their own destruction by deforesting their environment recognized what they were doing, their catastrophe could have been averted. But many past societies seem not to have recognized these problems that develop over a period of decades or centuries.
The predictions of global climate change suggest real problems by the end of the 21st century. By the end of the century trend analysis indicates that we will almost certainly have nearly twice the global population of 2000. Anyone who reads can see deforestation, desertification, loss of topsoil, depletion of oil and other fossil fuel reserves, salinization of prime farm land, depletion of water resources and reduction of biodiversity occuring at rates that make the prospects for the year 2100 quite dim.
Yet the social response to the situation seems slight and pales before the challenge. Perhaps it is because our political leaders are old enough that they will not see the end of the century, and they focus on the next election rather than the next generation! But the children born in this decade may, and their children will probably see the year 2100!
Katrina hit New Orleans, a once-in-a-century event, and killed 2000 people and caused unprecedented damage.
There are estimates the magnitudes of events that will only be expected to be exceeded once per century -- floods, earthquakes, droughts, etc.
One question is how do we, as a society plan for catastrophic events that have low probabilities. We, as individuals, are affected by an "availability" falicy of memory -- we often function as if the things we recall most easily are the most likely, and as if things not available easily in our memory do not concern us. Not a good idea when facing a once-in-a-century probability of catastrophy.
As societies, we are scarcely better. We rebuild cities on the rubble left by hurricanes and earthquakes, and on the lava from previous eruptions of active volcanoes. We build in flood planes, and sites prone to mud slides, and rebuild buildings destroyed by wild fires.
But there is another issue, and that is our difficulty in perceiving and responding to emergencies that occur on a time scale measured in decades or centuries.
HIV/AIDS emerged as a new disease in the 20th century, I think the only really major new disease of the 20th century, and has killed tens of millions of people. It was painful to see the lack of global response in the early years to the epidemic that seemed so obviously likely to kill millions or tens of millions.
Jared Diamond, in his book, Collapse, points out how societies have been destroyed when they were unable to respond to climate changes or environmental problems that developed over decades or centuries. His analysis suggests that if the Greenland Norse had recognized their problems caused by the Little Ice Age and the environmental degredation that they were causing, and that the Inuit were handling things better, they might have become more like the Inuit and survived. His analysis suggests that if societies that were seeding their own destruction by deforesting their environment recognized what they were doing, their catastrophe could have been averted. But many past societies seem not to have recognized these problems that develop over a period of decades or centuries.
The predictions of global climate change suggest real problems by the end of the 21st century. By the end of the century trend analysis indicates that we will almost certainly have nearly twice the global population of 2000. Anyone who reads can see deforestation, desertification, loss of topsoil, depletion of oil and other fossil fuel reserves, salinization of prime farm land, depletion of water resources and reduction of biodiversity occuring at rates that make the prospects for the year 2100 quite dim.
Yet the social response to the situation seems slight and pales before the challenge. Perhaps it is because our political leaders are old enough that they will not see the end of the century, and they focus on the next election rather than the next generation! But the children born in this decade may, and their children will probably see the year 2100!
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