A Comment on Framing Decisions

Another comment derived from my reading of Prisoner's Dilemma by William Poundstone.

There are many ways one can frame a decision. For example, one can frame a decision as a "one of a kind" decision. The Cuban missile crisis might be seen in that light, at least at the point in which nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union appeared to be possible within a few hours. Certainly with huge stockpiles of hydrogen bombs on each side, the likelihood of another similar confrontation following nuclear war could not have seemed of much concern.

Alternatively a decision can be framed as one in a continuing series. It is interesting to watch poker tournaments in part to see how player strategy changes from stage to stage in the game. The decision to bluff or fold differs as to whether the player is one of many in a knockout tournament, or at the final table.

Similarly, a decision can be made in terms of wider or narrower considerations. The decision to go to war in Iraq may have been framed in terms of relations between Iraq and the United States (one surely hopes not) or in terms of the stability of the Middle East and Central Asia. It may have been framed in terms of the immediate response to 9/11, or the long term relationships of the United States with other global powers.

Not only do the factors to be included in the equation differ according to the way the issue is framed, but so should the decision making strategies and tactics.

Good poker players bluff, knowing that sometimes the bluff will be called. When that happens the player loses a lot more money that had he not bluffed, but establishes in the minds of the other players that a big bet does not automatically signal a big hand. The player not only wins when he/she bluffs successfully, but when he/she bets a good hand and is perceived by opponents as (probably, potentially) bluffing. But a really good poker player seldom makes the mistake of bluffing at a really bad moment, nor does he/she continue the bluff beyond a prudent limit.