A new DOD initiative, called Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling, designed to begin and encourage advanced anthropological analyses of cultures that the U.S. military might encounter during overseas operations. This relatively inexpensive defense transformation--largely a shift in thinking--could have benefits beyond active counterinsurgency warfare and counterterrorism. This is increasingly important, given the recent DOD emphasis on stability operations throughout the world--proactively preventing failed states and discouraging formation of terrorist havens.Comment: I would love to see the power of this approach put to better uses, but DoD has more money than anyone. Would it not be wonderful not only to see HSCB modeling applied to the environment, but also to the reduction of poverty! JAD
HSCB models may have further applications to one of the most pressing environmental problems of our time--global climate change. Reputable and reasonable projections suggest that future changes in climate will increase the frequency and severity of food and water shortages, heat-related illnesses, and infectious disease epidemics (2). These outcomes may exacerbate local tensions, act as a "threat multiplier" in some unstable regions, and significantly increase the risk of state failure in regions of strategic importance (3). If HSCB models can be expanded to incorporate environmental knowledge, they might be used effectively to prevent or mitigate environmentally induced conflict. Conversely, climate change will also have local positive effects, and knowledge of the environmental terrain will have benefits in those situations as well. Ultimately, in a climate of change, cultural and environmental knowledge could be integrated into a global early warning system, detecting the sorts of changes that might signal instability and a need for intervention. Earlier this year, the House accepted provisions, inserted into the FY08 intelligence authorization bill, that explicitly direct the U.S. intelligence community to consider climate impacts when preparing future National Intelligence Estimates. At the time of writing, similar provisions are being considered by the Senate.
Another letter in the same issue by Christopher Batich titled" Better Use of Existing Knowledge" states:
It is encouraging to see the focus on cross-cultural research by the U.S. Department of Defense ("Pentagon asks academics for help in understanding its enemies," Y. Bhattacharjee, News Focus, 27 Apr., p. 534). However, the same information is effectively gathered by interviewing local experts and having representatives of the United States "on the ground" to sort through the data. Our State Department does a good job with this and understood the problems with invading Iraq quite well. However, this advice was ignored. Perhaps it would be more productive to study our institutions and see how we can better make use of the good knowledge that we have, rather than generating redundant data, which have a high probability of also being ignored. It has been said that the most effective way to deflect accountability in government is to study the problem for long enough for the next election to take place (and memories to fade).Comment: Right on!
A related concern is how to address solutions once the problem is obvious. This "riding the tiger" problem ("if you get off, it will eat you") needs a focus on amnesty for error, but not for intransigence. During delays in correction, much damage is done that could and should be avoided.
I wonder, however, whether the Bush administration really understands what would happen in Iraq if the U.S. military were to withdraw quickly or if it were to wait for years before withdrawing. Do the decision makers really understand the implications in the various countries of the region of our various policies with respect to Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc? Riding the tiger is much more dangerous I suspect with your eyes closed! JAD
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