How the electronic communication and computation revolution changed everything.

October 4^th is the 50^th anniversary of the launch of Sputnik I. It seems like a good time to think about the big picture.

Edison invented the electric power system in the 19^th century. He was, as I understand it, the person who developed the ensemble of generation, transmission and use of electric power. The initial development of electrical power focused on its use to provide light and motive power. Of course the telegraph was invented prior to Edison’s invention of the light bulb, and the telephone about the same time, but both were electromechanical systems, not electronic. Similarly, the invention of the radiotelegraph at the turn of the century was an important step in the development of information and communications technology, but it too was not yet electronic. Perhaps the start of electronics was Lee De Forest’s invention of the triode in 1906.

The 20^th century then started with the existence of electrical power systems and vacuum tube technology for the amplification of electrical signals, plus the understanding of the potential of reproduction of sound and images and of transmission of signals by wire and wireless.

There followed the inventions we all know so well – radio, television, the transistor, the digital computer, the integrated circuit, the laser, fiber optics, the Internet, the World Wide Web, etc. These inventions were of course complemented by developments in software, storage technology, manufacturing technology and the rest. With the emerging convergence of these technologies it is perhaps easier to see in retrospect that the 20^th century saw the emergence of a complex information technology system based on electronics, operated on the electrical power infrastructure. Each succeeding killer application added to the system tended to exhibit synergisms, albeit that some technologies reached their evolutionary limits and were replaced.

There has been a world of analysis describing the economic impacts of the development of this technological system over the century. Of course, major new industries were created manufacturing and distributing the devices embodying these technologies, as well as industries providing content for radio, television, and the Internet. The electronic information and communication technology revolution also revolutionized the productive economy. Think of advertising, computer aided design and manufacturing, and the impact on logistics. Think of financial services and travel.

As a result of the technology we have seen globalization, industrial restructuring, and organizational restructuring in all industries. The labor force has been radically restructured, in terms of geographic location (to cities), of industry (the growth of high technology industries, and the decline of extractive industries), and function (the growth of white collar jobs, wage premiums for those who more effectively appropriate electronic information and communications technology).

There has also been a huge impact on political systems. There are now more than 100 countries in the world with some degree of democracy, according to the freedom foundation. The growth of citizen participation in governance must be in part due to a vastly better and more rapidly informed public, worldwide. The transistor radio made radio affordable everywhere. Today there are half as many mobile phones as people, and one sixth of the world is connected to the Internet.

I would suggest that the electronic information and communication revolution was the key driving force for extending education, in the sense that it increased the returns to investment in education and allowed the demand for educated persons in the workforce to increase radically.

People obviously spend a lot of time interacting with the electronic information and communication technology infrastructure, devices that embody the technology, or products and services that depend upon or have been improved by the technology. Thus social interactions are increasingly mediated by the technology, and social systems have been modified in response to the incentives and disincentives inherent in the technology and in the economic and political system responses to the technology.

The point of this posting is that the evolution of this technological system has been ongoing for a century, and in fact can be seen as intimately linked with earlier (industrial revolutions). Indeed, the invention of the printing press initiated a technological system innovation process which has continued for five centuries, with still evolving economic, political and social ramifications.

My hunch is that “you ain’t seen nothing yet”. The evolution of the system will continue. Some of the directions are probably predictable as continuations of current trends – connectivity will continue to increase, costs will continue to come down, new killer apps will continue to appear. The repercussion trends will also continue – globalization, deepening of educational stocks, increasing incomes, democratization, etc.

Some developments are much less probable, but still likely targets for foresight exercises. I would guess that the 21^st century will see a convergence among electronic information and communications technologies, and on the one hand genetic and biotechnologies and on the other hand cognitive and behavioral technologies. The technology should also provide means to study and understand global systems, to identify their problems, and to begin to aid decision makers in considering their amelioration.

And there will be “black swans”. These are developments that will be so far from our thinking that they will surprise us all. Who knew that the triode, or the Internet protocol would change the world!