Friday, November 02, 2007

Can most people be above average?

For some reason, this question seems to get wrong answers.

Consider a simple test. Say write your name. If you answer correctly, you get one point. If you answer wrong, you get no points.

Now if you have two people, one very sloppy, who answer the question. one right and one wrong, the average score is one-half. One person has a better than average score, one a less than average score.

Add 98 careful people to the sample. Now you have 99 right answers and one wrong answer. The average is 0.99. 99 people have above average scores, and one below average.

So yes, depending on the circumstances, more than half the people in a sample can have a better than average score. We are all programmed to think in terms of symmetric probability distributions, like the normal distribution, but in actually sampling it is unusual to have the median equal the mean. So usually either most people will be above average or most people will be below average, albeit not by much for symmetric a priori distributions.

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