"U.N. to Cut Estimate Of AIDS Epidemic"

Source: Answers.com

Subtitle: Population With Virus Overstated by Millions
By Craig Timberg, The Washington Post, November 20, 2007

The latest HIV infection estimates, due to be released publicly Tuesday, November 20th, put the incidence at 2.5 million, a cut of more than 40 percent from last year's estimate. The worldwide prevalence of HIV -- estimated a year ago at nearly 40 million and rising -- now will be reported as 33 million.

Comment: In fairness to the people at UNAIDS issuing the estimates, it must be very hard to make accurate estimates of HIV incidence and prevalence. The health service systems are very weak in the countries with most disease, and people who are most at risk are often not easily reached by health services nor epidemiologists, not to mention ashamed of their condition or in denial. In making estimates of these values, would you want the UN to be conservative? What does "conservative" mean in this case? I think it would be worse to underestimate the magnitude of the problem than to overestimate it.

I hope that the revision of the figures does not result in a reduction of the emphasis on the disease. 33 million is a huge number, as is 2.5 million, when you consider the human and financial cost of each infection. JAD