Election Results: We Don't Know Anything Yet

Listening to the election results so far on the television media, one might conclude that important decisions have been all be concluded. Of course, the networks are fighting for ratings, and don't want to lead off their programs with an announcement that the results in such and such a state don't mean much. But I think that the results so far don't mean much. Except of course, as they influence the donations to the various candidates, the willingness of people to work for the campaigns, the decisions of those who are soon to vote, and the candidates who are dropping out.

According to the New YoIk Times Election Guide:

• in the Democratic Convention, 2025 delegate votes are required to win the nomination. Currently, Clinton and Obama are tied with nine committed delegates each, and Edwards trails with four.
• In the Republican Convention, 1191 delegates are needed to win. Romney now has 27 committed to him, McCain 13 and Huckabee 2.

Even in those states that have completed the first stage of delegate selection process, most has secondary stages to actually designate their delegation rosters.

So what about the popular vote? According to the NYT Election Guide:

• Clinton and Obama went head to head in three primaries in small states. Obama lead in one, 39% to 29%; Clinton lead in two, 39% to 36% and 51% to 46%.
• Romney, McCain, Huckabee and Thompson are leading among Republicans. Here is the voter split among the four in states where they competed so far (percentages in same order as names above):
• Iowa: 25%, 13%, 34% and 13%
• New Hampshire: 32% 37%, 11%, 1%
• Michigan: 39%, 30%, 16%, 4%.
• Nevada: 51%, 13%, 8%, 8%
• South Carolina: 15%, 33%, 30%, 16%

I guess that the results suggest that the Democratic race is between Clinton and Obama, and the Republican race so far does not include Giuliani as major contender, and perhaps that Thompson is a long shot. I think the results also suggest that nothing much has been decided yet.