"Escalating Ice Loss Found in Antarctica"

Source: Marc Kaufman, The Washington Post, January 14, 2008.

The article states that new research indicates that climate change is destabilizing ice sheets in western Antarctica much more than had been thought. It raises the specter that we might see both the Antarctic and Greenland ice melting, leading to sea level rises of meters this century rather than feet as had previously been thought. There was a recent report that scientists looking at the long-distant past climate had found that when the climate warmed as much as is expected in the 21st century, sea level rose some 20 feet.

Sea level rises of that magnitude would be catastrophic for small island nations, Bangladesh, and indeed for low lying coastal areas all over the world. While they would decimate vacation homes on the coasts of the United States, they would be much worse for poor people in many countries who don't have the resources to survive such changes.

As far as I can figure out, scientists have not developed a very good understanding of the climate-ice pack dynamics. Clearly, huge amounts of cold, fresh water entering the oceans would have oceanographic effects that would be unprecedented and thus difficult to predict. The overall interplay of oceans, atmosphere, and ice is not only complex, but apparently non-linear. Predictions based on simulations of such systems for decades are not only very difficult, but are very sensitive to assumptions that are made.

In short, the world is facing threats that could be very grave, with very unsatisfactory scientific information on which to base decisions. We know that mankind is in trouble in this century, but we are not sure how bad that trouble may be. Caution would seem to be the prudent course!