Interpreting the Election Results

The media describe the election results as dramatic and predictive. But of course the media want viewers to stay with them. If the voters in future primaries are in fact influenced by the talking heads, then these initial results are important.

I guess that with many states holding their primaries on Super Tuesday next month the campaigns with the most money will have an advantage, So there may be an impact of the first results on the willingness of donors to support the various candidates.

On the other hand, we have only had two out of 50 states go through their primaries. The Conventions, where each party nominates its candidates for president, are attended by delegates from the states, and most delegates are awarded proportionately from the states. The Democrats make proportional representation mandatory, and the Republicans use proportional representation in about half the states.

So basically, Obama and Clinton are about even with a very few delegates selected for the Democrats, with Edwards a little behind.

The New York Times Election Guide is very informative.