Some Concepts Related to Decision Making

I heard someone talking yesterday about acceptance of ambiguity as a characteristic important in a person's decision making style. I don't recall having seen any research on the question, but it seems reasonable to me that the statement would be true.

Ambiguous:
1 a: doubtful or uncertain especially from obscurity or indistinctness
b: inexplicable
2: capable of being understood in two or more possible senses or ways
Merrium Webster Online Dictionary

Those who would fail to recognize alternative explanations for the data on which they were making decisions would be subject to some types of error that others more open to ambiguity might avoid. A willingness to be ambiguous in ones decisions also may have value; think of the importance to diplomacy of the effective use of ambiguity!

I also read recently a statement that seems especially wise. "The one lesson of history is that events often develop in ways other than those which had been expected by those who had planned them." Any reasonably good chess player knows that his opponent will not always move in the ways expected of him, and leaves room in his planning for responses to the unexpected. We talk about "fall-back" positions. Chess players run a continuing analysis considering moves ahead for themselves and their opponents, but continually updating the tree of alternative moves under consideration according to the moves already made (not to mention their knowledge of their opponents, and the circumstances of the game such as time pressure.)

It might also be worth noting the differences among decision making circumstances in which:

• we know the range of alternatives and can estimate with relative accuracy their probabilities;
• we know the range of alternatives but can not estimate the probabilities of occurrence of some or all of them; or
  
• we are unable to fully characterize the range of alternatives.

It really doesn't matter much in most day to day decisions what we actually decide. Picking one item from a menu versus another, or one item of clothing versus a similar option doesn't warrant a lot of thought. In important decision making, however, a willingness to recognize ambiguity, human cognitive limitations, and uncertainty and ignorance would seem very important indeed!