Sunday, July 27, 2008

Formal thinking about science and technology

There are a lot of formal approaches that can be used to make better decisions on science and technology. These include;

Technology Systems Analysis: Obviously one does not introduce 220 volt apparatus into a 110 volt system, but the approach can go much further. Don't introduce a brand if it can not be supported by maintenance and replacement parts, Don't introduce a communications medium unless content is going to be available. Realize that network economies depend on sequential introduction of added killer apps.; thus think about sources for added software as one introduces telecenters.

Financial analysis: One would assume that those investing in a technology would generally assure that it was profitable to do so, using standard financial analysis techniques, but that is both hard to do well with a technological innovation and perhaps frequently omitted in developing nations. Financial sustainability analysis is an important aspect.

Environmental impact assessment: My experience with aid projects was that people would justify a project as completely transforming agricultural technology in a country, and then state that there would be no environmental consequence. Technological change can indeed be disruptive.

Economic analysis: Clearly there is a need for economic analysis that goes beyond financial analysis, for example to include the economic externalities of introduction of a technology. There may also be a need for analysis of economic institutions, such as the ability of the local market to sustain the maintenance services needed for a new technology. It may also be very important to see who benefits and who suffers economically from a technological change.

Political analysis: Is a proposed technological change politically feasible or not? What are the interests of the key stakeholders. Can one build a coalition of the willing to provide the political cover an innovation requires?

Social soundness analysis: Is a proposed technological innovation culturally appropriate? What social systems is it likely to disrupt? Which will it reinforce? Are there means of ameliorating the social consequences? Technological innovations that are intended to diffuse via informal social networks should be viewed through the lens of sociological and anthropological analytic techniques.

Organizational analysis: Since often technological innovations take place within formal organizations, the analytic toolbox of from schools of business and/or public administration can be applied -- organizational science.

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