"The impact of high oil prices on African economies"

Authors: H. Bouakez; D. Vencatachellum
The African Development Bank, 2008.

"This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which reflects the characteristics of African economies but is general enough to imbed both oil-producing and oil-importing countries. This model is used to quantify the impact of changes in oil prices on African economies. A rise to twice the current price level would lead to:

* a fall in output by 6% in the first year for the median oil-importing country given a complete pass through of the increase in prices to the consumers
* a 6% increase in the budget deficit for the same country opting for a no-pass through strategy to prevent a decline in output"