Incompetence of Chicanery

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The Washington Post today reports:

With the 2010 Census less than two years away, independent demographers and congressional overseers are worried that the Census Bureau will not be prepared to accurately record the nation's racial and ethnic minorities, illegal immigrants and the poor -- groups that historically have been undercounted.

Apparently, under the direction of a chief who took office six months ago, the Bureau has decided to abandon hand held electronic data devices and go back to paper for the follow up on households that do not mail in their census forms. The change means that the Bureau also has to abandon a test of the procedures that was scheduled for this year.

The result will probably be an increase in the undercount of those who are difficult to count. The difficult to count tend to be relatively poor, including the homeless, recent immigrants, people living in crowded dwellings, etc.

Since the census is the basis for apportionment of legislative districts, the more that a group of people is under-counted, the more that group is disadvantaged politically by the re-apportionment that will follow the census.

It is no secret that in the recent past Republicans have sought to block changes in the Bureau's procedures that would make the counts more accurate. Notably, in the last census the Republican Congress blocked the Bureau from using statistical techniques that would correct the count by estimating the undercounts.

So the question is, is the current problem due to the incompetence of the Bureau under its Republican leadership, of is it do to deliberate malfeasance?

The changes will apparently add $2.2 to $3 billion to the $11.5 billion cost of the census. The article does not indicate how much the inaccuracy will cost the nation as decisions are made for the following decade based on information that is less accurate than it might be. Moreover, I don't think anyone knows how to estimate the dollar value of the loss of democracy due to the disenfranchisement of Americans in neighborhoods that are under counted.

In terms of the focus of this blog, the decennial census provides a critical source of information for our economy and our democracy. The word "statistics" comes from the idea of the data needed by the state. A political party that seeks to undermine the accuracy of our fundamental information for political reasons is dispicable!