Data source: "Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Education," IIASA.
This is a relatively conservative projection, assuming no improvements are made over time in the proportion of a young cohort that acquires different levels of education, while fertility, mortality, and migration trends follow the median demographic assumptions discussed in the paper.
Still, the projection suggests a great increase in the number of graduates of tertiary education in the world, as well as increases in numbers of high school graduates, matched by a decrease in the number of people with no education.
If you think about the increase in human capital (improved health is likely to combine with added education) and the increase in scientific and technological knowledge, as well as the improvements in information infrastructure, it is clear that the nature of global knowledge systems will change radically even in the next quarter century.
Sunday, July 06, 2008
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