The situation in non-infectious disease is obviously worrisome due to the aging population, the problems of life style in an increasingly affluent global population, and the problems of pollution, not to mention the cost of the increasingly complex and comprehensive medical toolkit for dealing with these diseases. But let me focus on communicable diseases.
In addition to the problem of disease agents evolving increasing resistance to antibiotics, there is the problem of vectors of vector borne diseases evolving resistance to their control measures. There are emerging diseases, often resulting from the crossover from another species into humans. The AIDS epidemic illustrates the threat. As more people are in touch with more livestock, as livestock densities increase, and as people come into contact with new species through people or wild animals moving into new areas, there are more such opportunities for such crossovers. In failed states public health programs fail, infectious disease go unchecked, and their resulting epidemics create potential points of contagion for the rest of the world. Flu illustrates still another problem; the disease is endemic, but every few years there is a change in the virus and the resulting epidemic or pandemic is more contagious, more virulent or both. And of course, the failure of so many societies to be able to afford decent hygiene results in lots of spread of water borne, water washed, and other infectious diseases.
We think of infectious disease as being controlled, but there are an estimated 17 million deaths per year from them, second only to cardiovascular diseases. With globalization and the increase of international and intercontinental travel, a communicable disease can spread more rapidly and over greater distances than in the past. With rapid urbanization and the growth of megacities, there are huge human populations in close contact to enable epidemics to strike hard. In the developing world, these cities have extremely dense populations, increasing contact rates.
Add to all that the threat of bioterrorism, with disease agents engineered to be especially communicable, virulent or lethal, and the possibility of them being spread on purpose.
We should surely be focusing our attention on means to control and prevent infectious diseases for mankind's future safety.
Check out:
- "Emerging Infectious Diseases: a 10-Year Perspective from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases" by Anthony S. Fauci and Nancy A. Touchette with Comments and Gregory K. Folkers
- The NIAID Emerging and Reemrging Infectious Diseases website
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