If Everyone With HIV Were Treated, It Would End the AIDS Epidemic

Source: "Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model" Reuben M Granich, Charles F Gilks, Christopher Dye, Kevin M De Cock and Brian G Williams, The Lancet, 26 November 2008.

A thought experiment, in the form of a mathematical model, indicates that a strategy of universal testing for HIV infection and immediate treatment of all cases could

accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years.

Unfortunately

Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6·7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2·7 million became infected with HIV in 2007.

Comment: What a nice use of computer modeling for exploratory and didactic purposes! JAD