Sunday, November 16, 2008

Two Factoids from Today's Washington Post

"Fighting AIDS at Home" by Robert C. Gallo
Sadly, in 2008, some places in the United States, chiefly poor urban areas, are home to the same rising HIV/AIDS statistics as those of some Third World countries.........The most recent statistics from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that Maryland leads the 50 states per capita in the rise of HIV/AIDS. Baltimore is one of many cities in need of a PEPFAR-style program to reduce infection rates and increase longevity. Though this pandemic is most prevalent in cities along the Interstate 95 corridor, including Miami, the Baltimore metropolitan area and the Washington metro area, infection rates show that it has spread throughout the nation.

"5 Myths About an Election of Mythic Proportions" by Chris Cillizza
A wave of black voters and young people was the key to Obama's victory.

Afraid not. Heading into Election Day, cable news, newspapers and blogs were dominated by excited chatter about record levels of enthusiasm for Obama among two critical groups: African Americans and young voters (aged 18-29). It made sense: Black voters were energized to cast a historic vote for the first African American nominee of either major party; young people -- following a false start with former Vermont governor Howard Dean in 2004 -- had bought into Obama in a major way during the primary season, and they finally seemed on the cusp of realizing their much-promised potential as a powerhouse voting bloc.

Or not. Exit polling suggests that there was no statistically significant increase in voting among either group. Black voters made up 11 percent of the electorate in 2004 and 13 percent in 2008, while young voters comprised 17 percent of all voters in 2004 and 18 percent four years later.

The surge in young and African American voters is not entirely the stuff of myth, however. Although their percentages as a portion of the electorate didn't increase measurably, Obama did seven points better among black voters than Sen. John F. Kerry did in 2004 and scored a 13-point improvement over Kerry's total among young voters.
Comment: Actually I think Cillizza's interpretation of the Black vote is wrong. There was a significant increase in registrations in 2008 as compared with 2004. In spite of that increase, the Black vote increased from 11 to 13 percent of the total. That would represent at more than a 20 percent increase in the turnout of Black voters. I would be very surprised if that were not statistically significant. JAD

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