What are the real risks in the world?

Source of map: The World Health Organization

We, the citizens of the United States, have spent roughly a trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, apparently justified as protecting us against another attack like the one that killed some 3000 people on September 11, 2001. In those wars, thousands of Americans have been killed, tens of thousands of Americans have been wounded, and hundreds of thousands have sacrificed to serve in the military in the theaters of war. Of course, the impact on the inhabitants of Iraq and Afghanistan are worse by an order of magnitude.

Did Americans judge the comparative risks of war versus other means to protect against terrorism correctly? In general, we don't make very good risk assessments. There are many known biases, such as the tendency to overstate risks from events similar to those which make a strong impression, overstating risks of the new and unfamiliar, and overstating risks similar to recent events in the news.

The map above shows that for a large part of Africa, a child born in 2003 had roughtly one chance in six of dying before reaching the age of five. Think about that risk that millions of families run on a regular basis, and which is likely to increase in the coming few years due to the global economic crisis.

Some statistics from the World Health Organization:

• The latest estimate is that 536 000 women died in 2005 as a result of complications of pregnancy and childbirth.
• The number of people living with HIV worldwide in 2007 was estimated at 33.2 million.
• As populations age in middle- and low-income countries over the next 25 years, the proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable diseases will rise significantly. Globally, deaths from cancer will increase from 7.4 million in 2004 to 11.8 million in 2030, and deaths from cardiovascular diseases will rise from 17.1 million to 23.4 million in the same period. Deaths due to road traffic accidents will increase from 1.3 million in 2004 to 2.4 million in 2030, primarily owing to increased motor vehicle ownership and use associated with economic growth in low- and middle-income countries. By 2030, deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular diseases and traffic accidents will collectively account for 56% of the projected 67 million deaths due to all causes.
  

Thus in the seven years since the 9/11 terrorist attack, more than 450 million people have died worldwide. Put another way, for each victim killed in 9/11, some 15.000 people have died of other causes since 9/11. Did you understand that fact? Does it change your opinion of the gravity of the 9/11 attacks?

Put it another way. With a trillion dollars to spend over seven years, could we have done more good than by invading Iraq and Afghanistan?