Wednesday, February 04, 2009

What will be the political impacts of the economic crisis


We are facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930's. Wikipedia describes the political consequences of the Depression as follows:
The crisis had many political consequences, among which was the abandonment of classic economic liberal approaches, which Roosevelt replaced in the United States with Keynesian policies. It was a main factor in the implementation of social democracy and planned economies in European countries after World War II. (see Marshall Plan). Although Austrian economists had challenged Keynesianism since the 1920s, it was not until the 1970s, with the influence of Milton Friedman that the Keynesian approach was politically questioned, leading the way to neoliberalism.
Widespread economic hardship lead to popular unrest during the 1930's. The rise of Hitler and the Japanese invasion of China are related to the Great Depression; Stalin's response to Depression era famine and poverty in Russia was more secrecy and coercive control. Even the United States went to a strong president who extended presidential power to deal with the economic crisis. Severe as were the repercussions in large, resource rich countries (the United States, the British Commonwealth, the Soviet Union) the repercussions in smaller poorer countries were much worse. Trade decreased radically, and trade related inter-dependencies were ruptured, perhaps allowing for greater pressures towards war. And indeed it was the war economy that eventually ended the Depression.

I hope that the world's economic leadership has learned how to assure that the current crisis results in a recession rather than a depression, but that recession may have dangerous consequences in the realm of international politics. This may be a time in which we need strong public and economic diplomacy to achieve security objectives in the face of potential political turmoil.

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