Monday, March 09, 2009

2008 State of the Future


2008 State of the Future

by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu


Some quotes from the Executive Summary:
International Alert in the U.K. lists 102 vulnerable countries. The Center for Naval Analyses in the U.S. identifies 46 countries (2.7 billion people) at high risk of armed conflict, and an additional 56 states (1.2 billion people) at risk of political instability. By mid-2008 there were 14 wars (conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths)—one fewer than in 2007. These wars were in Africa (5), Asia (4), the Americas (2), the Middle East (2), and worldwide anti-extremism.

FAO estimates that 37 countries face a crisis over food due to increased demand from rapidly developing nations, high oil prices, the use of crops for biofuels, high fertilizer costs, global stocks at 25-year lows, and market speculation. Basic food prices are doubling around the world. Prices of cereals, for example, including wheat and rice, are up 129% since 2006. With nearly 3 billion people making $2 or less per day, long-term global social conflict seems inevitable without more serious food policies, useful scientific breakthroughs, and dietary changes.......

About 1.4 billion people (21% of the world) are connected to the Internet, with 37.6% of them in Asia, 27.1% in Europe, and 17.5% in North America. The Internet and mobile phones are merging, increasing access to the world’s knowledge. There are 3.3 billion mobile phones active around the world as of 2008.....

Some 700 million people face water scarcity today. Without major interventions, this number could grow to 3 billion by 2025. Water tables are falling on all continents, and 40% of humanity depends on watersheds controlled by two or more countries. The world will need 50% more food by 2013 and twice as much within 30 years. This means more water, land, and fertilizer—yet for the past several years we have been consuming more than was being produced, and the factors increasing food prices seem long-term........

Freedom House’s world review found that democracy and freedom declined over the last two years in one-fifth of the world’s countries. Four times as many countries showed declines in this measure during 2007 as showed improvements, and press freedom continued a six-year negative trend across the world, with increased intimidation of journalists and rising control of media in the hands of a few in business or government.......

Total military expenditures are about $1.3 trillion per year. There are an estimated 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world, approximately 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium, and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce nuclear weapons.

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