Thursday, March 05, 2009

"Recession Watch: Boost the developing world"

Source: Jeffrey Sachs, Nature 457, 958 (19 February 2009).

"Sub-Saharan Africa's income growth in 2009 is projected at just 3.25%, down from 6.9% in 2007, and around 3 percentage points below the forecast of a few months ago. The Institute of International Finance based in Washington DC projects a collapse of private-sector financial flows to the world's emerging market economies (mainly middle-income countries such as Morocco in North Africa), from US$928.6 billion in 2007 to just $165.3 billion in 2009. International banks are expected to reduce their loans to the middle-income countries by around $60 billion, compared with a net loan increase of $410 billion in 2007. Money sent from expatriates to their families in poor countries is plummeting, and millions of workers are returning home after losing jobs, work permits and visas. Long-promised aid is already being cut by some of the largest donor countries. Italy, the host of the Group of Eight (G8) Summit this year, has cut its 2009 aid budget by around half."

Professor Sachs makes this suggestion:
The G20 countries, meeting in London in early April, would be wise to devote at least $25 billion in urgent additional funding for African sustainable investments in 2009, and another $25 billion for low-income countries in other regions.
Comment: It is worth reading the whole, short article. Professor Sachs is the economist, and I don't know how much would be appropriate as an emergency package for Africa and other poor nations, but clearly he is right that the need is urgent and large.

The economic crisis is going to hurt in the United States and other rich nations, but there are resources to ameliorate the pain. This country at least is far better prepared to deal with an economic crisis than it was in 1929.

The economic crisis is going to kill in the poorest countries, and kill in large numbers. They need help!
JAD

Incidentally, Nature (the British science journal, considered with Science to be the most important in the world) has a good website on the financial crisis.

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