H1N1 swine influenza A infection has been reported in 2 children living in southern California. No direct contact with swine was reported in either case, suggesting that the virus may have spread directly among humans.The threat here is that a new strain of flu has emerged that can be transmitted from human to human. As a new strain, there may be little herd immunity and there is always the chance of such a strain proving to be especially virulent.
The cases were reported online April 21 in a special dispatch of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), issued by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The swine viruses detected contain combinations of DNA segments not previously observed in influenza virus, and the seasonal influenza vaccine H1N1 strain is unlikely to provide protection, according to the report.
On the other hand, I don't think anyone knows how often such new strains arise, infect a few people and then disappear.
During the Carter administration there was a swine flu panic in response to a few reported cases, analogous to the panic created in/by the Bush administration about the H1N5 flu. Both cited the flu pandemic that struck during World War II.
Of course the global public health community should maintain surveillance to identify new strains of flu to give as early a warning as possible of shifts in the disease characteristics. Given the serious annual epidemics and extremely serious pandemics that occur every decade or two, of course public health officials should prepare to respond to flu season.
On the other hand, we have lived with flu epidemics and flu pandemics for a long time, and we should refrain from panic. Two cases don't make an epidemic.
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