An example of science leading to the recognition of technological needs

In 1896 Svante August Arrhenius published a scientific paper indicating that the emissions of Carbon Dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels had the potential to change the climate. From that start, a century of research has added more an more evidence that anthropogenic global warming was indeed a serious threat. The research has illuminated the nature and amount of other greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of changing land use on the albedo of the surface of the earth, the mechanisms of absorption of greenhouse gases, the changes in cloud cover to be expected, and the impacts that can be expected from global warming. The evolution of scientific technology has facilitated this research, but I direct attention specifically to the introduction of satellite remote sensing which has allowed collection of data on a global scale, and the evolution of the digital computer and computer networking has allowed the analysis of the huge masses of data accumulated, the modeling of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena, and the projection of trends in atmospheric pollution and temperature response.

I really believe that without the synoptic view of global warming provided by science over this century long effort, mankind would not have recognized the problem of global climate change. Indeed, many people still do not recognize the problem, nor do many political systems.

Nonetheless, the partial recognition of the problem of global warming has unleashed an avalanche of efforts to develop new technologies, including focus on renewable energy sources such as biomass, solar and wind, expanded efforts to improve nuclear energy, efforts to develop thermonuclear power technology, technology to conserve energy or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and technology to sequester carbon. There will also be efforts to develop technology to ameliorate or respond to global warming, such as water conservation technologies, technologies to combat sea level rise, and agricultural technologies to respond to changing growing conditions created by global warming.

(Incidentally, I understand there is new resistance to raising the funds necessary to complete the ITER project -- the internationally supported effort to develop the first thermonuclear experiment that would generate more power than it consumes. I can't evaluate the technical merit of the project, but the cost does not seem excessive if the project would really produce a significant step forward in the development of the technology. It is estimated as costing $19 billion, which might be compared with a global economic product in excess of $70 trillion. Thus, over the several years needed for the project, the cost per year would be a small portion of the global economy. It has been suggested that the funds might be better directed to the development of other energy technologies, but I think that is the wrong comparison. There are a lot of areas of expense, military spending for example, that would better be cut than expenditure to develop a huge and pollution reducing source of power for mankind.)

Of course, the recognition of the threat of global warming is but one of many factors influencing this torrent of technology development, and importantly the prior development of these technologies itself leads to further technology development as it introduces new possibilities and leads to improved technology development capacity.

Still the developing recognition of the problem of global warming, based on accumulated scientific evidence (itself partially the result of improved technology applied to the scientific effort) seems a good example of the way science helps create recognition of problems to be solved by the development of technology.

This posting is one in a series triggered by Brian Arthur's book, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves