The United States has fallen from 1st to 12th place internationally in the percentage of young adults with postsecondary degrees. The question is what does this datum mean, and what do we do about it. One thing to note is that we are comparing apples to oranges. The United States is perhaps more comparable in this respect to the European Union than to individual European nations. The United States is larger than any European nation, and the country to country differences in educational levels are paralleled by state to state differences in the United States.
Whitehurst points out:
The relationship between years of schooling and economic output at the national level is complex, to say the least. A small but consistently positive relationship between long-term growth and years of schooling is found in econometric studies, but there are many caveats and exceptions that are relevant to designing higher education policy in the U.S. For one thing there is tremendous variability in the relationship. For example, Germany has a stronger economy than France but half the percentage of young adults with a college degree. Further, France has increased its percentage of young adults with college degrees by 13 percentage points in the last 10 years whereas Germany’s output of college graduates has hardly budged, yet the economic growth rate of Germany has exceeded that of France over this same period. Obviously increasing educational attainment is not a magic bullet for economic growth. Education credentials operate within boundaries and possibilities that are set by other characteristics of national economies. We must attend to these if more education is to translate into more jobs.It seems to me that we need to focus on continuing education. A 21 year old entering the job market after whatever training, is going to face nearly 50 years of work before him/her. I suspect that many of these people should plan for further education to advance within career paths, and even more of them will need further education or training to change jobs/careers in the future.
A growing body of research suggests that policymakers should pay more attention to the link between job opportunities and what people know and can do, rather than focusing on the blunt instrument of years of schooling or degrees obtained. In international comparisons, for example, scores on tests of cognitive skills in literacy and mathematics are stronger predictors of economic output than years of schooling. Within the U.S. there is evidence that for many young adults the receipt of an occupational certificate in a trade that is in demand will yield greater economic returns than the pursuit of a baccalaureate degree in the arts and sciences.
Surely a lot of this education and training will be provided by institutions of higher education, but a lot of it should be provided by other organizations that provide targeted services to meet specific needs. A lot of it should be online!
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