. He looks at optimistic and pessimistic views in the literature on the question of whether technological progress is sustainable, noting also those who would achieve sustainability by focusing human aspirations on attainable affluence (ofter via recourse to the benefits of the "simple life").I will make only a few comments on the subject.
Clearly improving technology is an important approach to improving economic productivity, and there are many examples of ways in which improved economic productivity has resulted in improved human wellbeing.
Hunter-gatherers apparently lived quite well until their population exceeded the carrying capacity of the environment using hunting and gathering techniques and strategies alone. Agricultural technology can support a denser population than hunting and gathering, and many more people now live in societies based on agricultural food production than by hunting and gathering. So too, it seems that more people can be and are supported well in societies that have gone through an industrial transformation, utilizing machines, fossil fuels, and other "modern technologies" than can be supported by simpler technology such as that embraced by the Amish and Mennonites.
Sometimes a technological advance by one group can result in a major crisis for another group. There are many such examples. The American "rust belt" is suffering from the technological progress made by other nations that are more successfully competing in manufacturing. The most radical example that comes to mind is the development of marine technology in Europe that enabled Europeans to discover the Americas and the military technology that enabled Europeans to conquer and dominate the new world. The Europeans gained not only huge wealth in silver and gold, but many new crops such as potatoes and beans that contributed greatly to European productivity. On the other hand, they brought with them a variety of new diseases and viscous institutions such that the population of Mexico dropped from 25 million in 1520 to just over one million in 1605.
Illustration from Sahagún, ''Historia general de las cosas de Nueva España'', c. 1575-1580; ed., tr., James Lockhart, ''We People Here: Nahuatl Accounts of the Conquest Mexico'' (Univ. of California Press, 1993)
Jared Diamond, in his book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
, describes how a number of societies advanced through the use of social organization and technological innovation while depleting the resources on which they depended; when a climate shift occurred these societies found that their environment no longer could sustain their civilizations.Western civilization has used technological innovations to drive economic progress for centuries, leading to an explosion of global population and huge numbers of people achieving unprecedented economic wellbeing. We are now wondering whether petroleum resources will run out, or rather whether they can be replaced successfully when they run out. Many fisheries are being depleted, Some foresee major problems with water supplies as aquifers are depleted and as more irrigation water is required to feed a growing population, We are also seeing environmental degradation on a global scale -- loss of soil, desertification, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, global warming, pollution of air, water and soils.
Mankind has unprecedented means to appreciate these problems. There is also unprecedented technological capacity to innovate to increase productivity of existing resources, substitute for resources being depleted, and reduce population pressure on our resources. The question remains open of whether mankind can muster the political will to achieve sustainability before crisis occurs on a global scale.
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