ACCELERATING GLOBALIZATION

I quote from "4 Trends Shaping the New Decade" by Verne Harnish:

We've only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to exporting. In 1950, world exports per capita were just six dollars. By 1980, they had jumped to $437. Thus, the relative jump was enormous. However, the absolute numbers are starting to accelerate. By the year 2000, world exports per capita more than doubled to $ 985. They jumped to $ 1,600 by 2005. And they reached almost $ 2,400 in 2008.

I had not realized that the increase in world trade was so great. Some of my friends doubt the credibility of the economic growth estimates for China and India (and other developing nations) and if they are right then the export data might also be suspect, although there is an automatic check for these gross numbers since everything exported from one country is imported to another. Thus, the total value of world imports should equal the total value of world exports. It is also not clear if the figures given are corrected for the depreciation of the dollar. Note too that world population is much greater now than in 1950. We do know from other sources and personal experience that globalization has been taking place over a period of decades.

The figures lend credibility to the assertion that trade policy changes may be more important than development assistance. If poor country producers were given more access to rich country markets, the flow of remuneration and FDI might well dwarf foreign aid.