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Lets think about this for a bit. It seems to me that these guys are thinking about big questions -- is mankind causing global warming or is evolution the best explanation of the web of life. Does the approach work for all questions of what you should believe? How about really little questions -- should I take an umbrella with me today?
I have a little box that predicts the weather, a daily newspaper that does so, and several weather channels on television. I could spend a lot of time making my own observations, but it seems likely that I should accept the authority of these sources. I could spend a lot of time comparing their predictions over history with what actually happened. But the cost of making the decision should not be greater than the penalty for making the wrong decision.
It also seems to me that belief is a continuous variable, not a binary one. I would rather say, it is probably true that it is going to rain rather than have to say "I believe it must rain" or "I believe it can not rain". Better yet is the weather service's probability that it will rain. (Note, however, that you have to know what that probability means.)
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