Friday, May 11, 2012

Interpreting unemployment data




The "full employment" unemployment rate in the United States is between four and five percent. I would suggest that four percent might actually tend to overheat the economy. The basic point is that one in 20 people on the average is in the process of changing jobs.

Unemployment hit 10 percent at the height of the Great Recession, a very high rate but less than that in the early Reagan administration. It is now down to just over eight percent. That is, it is less than it was before the Carter administration took over from the Republicans and cut unemployment in the late 1970s and just about as high as it got before the Clinton administration took over from the Republicans and cut unemployment (while balancing the budget) in the 1990s.

Put another way, the Obama administration has brought the economy 40 percent of the way back to full employment in its first term.

Do you really want to entrust the economy to the Republicans again, this time in the person of Mitt Romney?

Check this out:

Despite a veto threat from the White House, the House of Representatives passed legislation that would prevent $78 billion in defense spending cuts next year and supplant them with steep cuts to domestic programs, including Medicare, Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program.
 Even if you like the Republican policies, do you want to vote for Mitt Romney?
"Mitt Romney’s prep school classmates recall pranks, but also troubling incidents"

1 comment:

John Daly said...

While the graph shows that the rate of reduction of unemployment is comparable to that in other recoveries, there is an explanation for the continuing problem.

There was a housing bubble, with both overbuilding and over evaluation of housing. Many people borrowed more than they could pay back on their houses, and many foreclosed houses are continuing to come on the market.

The construction industry is slow to recover because there remains of stock of unsold housing, and thus a major source of employment is not hiring.

State and local governments depend on property taxes and sales taxes for income. Property values dropped when the housing bubble burst, and sales taxes go down when there is a recession. Thus state and local governments reduce their payrolls.