Poverty alleviation will focus on fewer recipient countries

A current article in The Economist makes two important points:

• A number of countries, China and India among them, are achieving enough economic progress to now or soon be ranked among the middle income countries in terms of GDP per capita. While there are large numbers of poor people in these countries, the national governments will not be nearly as dependent on foreign aid to help the poor.
• The concern of international donors will consequently shift toward poverty alleviation in fragile and failed states. Some of these states are also in the middle income category, but their failed or failing governments can not be expected to maintain economic growth nor the improvement of the lives of the poor.

The article draws from three sources:

• "Where will the world’s poor live? Global poverty projections for 2020 and 2030". Institute of Development Studies
• "Where do the world’s poor live? A new update". By Andrew Sumner. Institute of Development Studies
• "Horizon 2025". By Homi Kharas and Andrew Rogerson. Overseas Development Institute

I think that this analysis suggests a major change in the foreign aid landscape over the next decade.