Embracing Uncertainty II

“I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong. If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives. We will not become enthusiastic for the fact, the knowledge, the absolute truth of the day, but remain always uncertain … In order to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar.” 
― Richard P. Feynman

In my previous post I recommended embracing uncertainty. I meant that in terms of big, important things. In trivial things, of course you should ignore uncertainty, acting as if it didn't exist. Would you prefer to wear this or that today? Ignore your uncertainty and choose. Would you prefer pancakes or waffles for breakfast? Ignore your uncertainty and choose.

How should you deal with uncertainty?

• Recognize alternative theories of the nature of the situation, but also recognize that you may not have recognized all the relevant alternatives. Consider searching for other alternatives.
• Recognize alternative courses of action, but also recognize that you may not have recognized all the relevant alternatives. Consider searching for other alternatives.
• Consider the dangers involved in those alternatives actions and their probabilities. Recognize that you may have failed to identify dangers. Recognize that your estimates of probabilities may be faulty. Consider more detailed risk assessment.
• Consider the potential benefits in those courses of action. Recognize that you may have failed to identify potential benefits. Recognize that your estimates of the probabilities may be faulty.
• Consider making your analysis of the situation more profound. Recognize that there are costs in time and effort in continuing analysis.

At some point you will decide that the state of your analysis justifies the decision to act or not to act, and you will do so. You will also decide to continue analysis or to discontinue analysis and go on to think about something else.